FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
Slugging: .672, Matt Kemp
David Ortiz leads the slate in wOBA (.472), ISO (.385), and slugging (.729) every time he faces a right-handed pitcher. One week I will be the first to write about Ortiz. This is not that week.
Prior to last night, the Padres faced nine straight right-handed pitchers. The repetition has led to a $800 drop in salary on DraftKings for Kemp over the past 10 contests. Even though the Padres are currently implied to score 3.2 runs against the Dodgers and left-handed pitcher Scott Kazmir, Kemp dominates left-handed pitchers and he’s reasonably priced for the leader in ISO and slugging among outfielders, topping $5,300 Carlos Gonzalez in both categories. Less than a quarter of Kemp’s at-bats this season have come against left-handed pitching, and he’s responded with half of his home run total.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +23, J.J. Hardy
I think it would be fair to classify Hardy as unlucky based on recent stats. Over the past two weeks, Hardy has nine singles, three doubles, and five strikeouts in 47 at-bats. You may even recall the Melvin Upton catch in center field that robbed Hardy of a two-run home run. Such is the life of an end-of-the order hitter. Fret not, though: He currently leads all projected nine-spot hitters with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and seven Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Hardy leads all shortstops in hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days, but his fantasy production is almost the antithesis of Danny Espinosa over that time span. The Orioles are currently implied to score 5.0 runs, but opposing starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker is second only to Daniel Mengden on Friday’s slate in hard-hit percentage allowed (17 percent) over the past 15 days. We have ourselves an old-fashioned standoff as long as the weather cooperates.
Umpire: +0.9 (DK), Joe West
The Blue Jays and Tigers welcome the most hitter-friendly umpire based on overall Plus/Minus and the second-most friendly umpire this season with a Plus/Minus of +2.04. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score 5.8 runs, but don’t overlook the Tigers at 4.2. The top-five hitters in their projected lineup boast a Bargain Rating of at least 76 percent on FanDuel, where West has provided batters a +2.70 Plus/Minus this season. Four of those batters, Miguel Cabrera not included, possess positive wOBA and ISO differentials against left-handed pitchers. And based on Mike Pelfrey’s last three outings, the Blue Jays must battle the pitcher with the best fly-ball percentage (17 percent) and third-best batted-ball distance allowed (179 feet) over the last 15 days.
Monthly Dud Rate (%): 7, Josh Donaldson
Over the past month, Donaldson leads all hitters with 19.9 FanDuel points and 14.9 DraftKings points per game. Since May 25th, Donaldson has recorded 0 DK points and 0 FD points one time – June 16th at Baltimore. In those 40 games, Donaldson recorded a +4.36 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.35 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He leads all batters in average points and overall Plus/Minus on DraftKings over that same time frame. Lastly, he’s top-five in almost every statistical category, including number one in Runs Scored, Runs Created, and Times On Base.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Javier Baez
Out of the 18 FanDuel batters with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, three of them belong to the Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Baez. Two other projected Cubs starters, Willson Contreras and Miguel Montero, sport a Bargain Rating of at least 82 percent. However, because the duos of Russell & Baez and Contreras & Montero share the same position on FanDuel, including more than three of the aforementioned five hitters remains impossible.
I selected Baez because he leads the Cubs in wOBA and slugging against left-handed pitchers. Conversely, opposing pitcher Francisco Liriano has historically conquered left-handed batters, limiting them to a .200 batting average against and six extra-base hits this season. Two men enter. One man leaves.
Pitchers
K Prediction (SO): 10.6, Jose Fernandez
Fernandez pitching in Marlins Park is as close to a lock as you’ll find – probably second only to Clayton Kershaw on any mound. Fernandez boasts an 85.0 percent Consistency on DraftKings and an 85.6 percent Consistency on FanDuel at home in his career. Tack on his slate-high 10.6 predicted strikeouts and slate-low opponent’s 2.6 implied runs for good measure.
Speed Differential (MPH): +0.9, Noah Syndergaard
When the hardest-throwing starting pitcher experiences increased velocity over his last two starts, you don’t expect it to coincide with the second-worst distance differential (+23 feet) on the slate. When Barry Allen improves his speed, the whole timeline goes askew. In referencing Syndergaard’s game log, I was reminded of his terrible outing two starts prior against the Nationals. He yielded five runs and four stolen bases in three innings. Friday will provide either redemption or déjà vu. At $10,800 on DraftKings, he’s priced down significantly. That leads me to believe his ownership numbers will skyrocket as long as the rain threatening most of the East Coast games subsides.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (DK), Yordano Ventura
At $4,900, it’s the lowest price point for Ventura in the FantasyLabs database. He’s a marginal favorite, and to exceed salary-based expectation, Ventura must score at least 11 points. His recent advanced stats align with his numbers over the past year, but it hasn’t been a strong 12-month stretch overall.
Cheaper than 18 batters on DraftKings, Ventura offers immense salary cap relief: He can be paired with any of the aces on today’s slate and provide you an average of at least $3,950 per batter to fill out the rest of your lineup. If the Mariners’ projected lineup holds, Ventura would benefit from the third-best opponent strikeout per at-bat rate of 0.290.
Moneyline: -300, Chris Sale
The moneyline on the White Sox opened at -285. The 15-point increase places Sale in rare territory: Similar pitchers on FanDuel averaged a +5.59 Plus/Minus on 73.7 percent Consistency when the difference between the opening and closing moneyline is at least five points in their favor.
Moneyline aside, Sale carries a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and leads all pitchers on the slate with a batted-ball distance differential of negative-20 feet. Combine that with 8.4 predicted strikeouts and an opponent currently implied to score 2.9 runs, and you can see why he’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings.
Monthly Salary Change (DK): -$3,600, Chris Archer
Archer costs $100 less than Jon Gray pitching in Coors Field, which has actually worked out well for Gray this season with a +3.03 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over six starts. The price reduction marks Archer’s lowest salary since May of 2014, and with the Red Sox currently implied to score 5.2 runs, you can understand why he’s on the clearance rack.
Two starts earlier against Friday’s opponent, Archer recorded nine strikeouts and cleared expectations by 3.42 DK points at a salary of $7,300. He is now listed at $6,800 and facing the same team with a strikeouts per at-bat rate of .210, the fourth-lowest on the slate. However, Archer won’t have the most pitcher-friendly umpire, D.J. Reyburn, calling strikes. In that same game two weeks ago, Red Sox pitcher Rick Porcello registered eight strikeouts for the first time in 13 starts. If Reyburn is behind the plate again, consider using Archer, owner of the sixth-highest SO/9 (10.9) on the slate. If a neutral umpire shows up, scramble for alternatives.
