FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
Slugging (SLG): 1.118, Peter O’Brien
That is not a typo. O’Brien claims the highest wOBA (.617), ISO (.765), slugging percentage, and strikeouts per at-bat (0.45) rate on the slate. Sample size is a factor, as O’Brien’s nine starts over the past 15 days matches his game total from the past 12 months. Plopping him into Coors Field against a rookie left-handed pitcher could be the perfect storm. At his price on FanDuel ($3,100), O’Brien will likely be present in many lineups. He also leads the league in overall swing rate, for both pitches inside and outside the strike zone, per FanGraphs. If you roster him tonight, expect to know the result of his at-bat within four pitches.
Distance Differential (ft): +44, Justin Turner
This is just a glimpse of Turner’s recent advanced stats. Over the past 15 days, he ranks first in batted-ball Distance (266 feet), first in Exit Velocity (97 MPH), and fifth in Hard-Hit percentage (58%) among Friday’s projected starters. Players with similar numbers offer a +1.40 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.96 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Dodgers are currently implied to score 4.0 runs, but Turner’s team-high seven Pro Trends and 84 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings should increase his exposure.
Air Time (seconds): 4.07, Neil Walker
Air. If President Skroob is willing to pay for it, maybe you should consider investing as well. However, you’ll want to locate the sweet spot. Too much air time implies popups as opposed to line drives.
Walker’s recent struggles at the plate can be traced back to the ground ball that ricocheted off his sternum less than two weeks ago, resulting in a 5-for-27 skid with three total strikeouts and a .167 BABIP. Though his Exit Velocity has dipped two miles per hour over the fortnight, his hard-hit percentage remains intact. Walker will likely bat cleanup with the wind projected to blow out to right field against Aaron Blair, the pitcher with the lowest groundball percentage (25%) over the past 15 days.
Month Consistency (%): 70 (DK), Jurickson Profar
Consistency is a function of salary and expected production. If a player meets historical point thresholds congruent with their salary, they’ve provided value at their price. Profar’s price on DraftKings has floated between $2,700 and $4,100 over the past month. His current salary of $3,200 requires 6.47 points in order to return value. Profar has scored less than seven DK points just six times in his last 20 starts.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): 27, Rougned Odor
Odor qualifies as a reverse-splits batter, and the Rangers will square off against David Price, curator of the second-highest SO/9 (10.1) on the slate. It’s a solid spot to capitalize on low ownership for a player who’s been striking the ball better than anyone else in the Rangers’ projected lineup.
Bargain Rating: 99% (FD), Trevor Story
Story is the seventh-most expensive shortstop in FanDuel’s player pool. At $3,300, it marks his cheapest salary in a Coors Field game all season. In the most recent homestand, Story was marked down to $3,400 on three separate occasions. He exceeded salary-based expectations in all three instances and generated a +11.84 Plus/Minus. The Rockies are currently implied to score a slate-high 5.9 runs, and Story is projected to bat fifth while ranking second in Hard-Hit percentage (62%) over the past 15 days. He leads all FanDuel hitters with 12 Pro Trends. Don’t overthink it.
Pitchers
K Prediction: 9.3, Max Scherzer
Strikeouts are king, and it’s good to be the king. Scherzer has recorded at least six strikeouts in 11 straight starts, but that’s underselling it. His 11.2 SO/9 leads all probable starters who’ve pitched more than one game over the past 12 months. Since May 1st, Scherzer has posted 98 strikeouts – only three fewer than Clayton Kershaw, the leader, over that time frame.
Pitch Velocity Difference (MPH): 1.0, Carlos Martinez
Technically, Nick Martinez has a higher positive differential in the last 15 days, but pitching in relief two outings ago artificially inflated his velocity. He’ll be making just his second start of the season today.
Carlos hit a minor skid in May, but in his last four starts, he’s thrown at least six innings and met salary-based expectations each time. He’s procured a 74 percent groundball rate in his last two starts while limiting opponent’s batted-ball distance to 174 feet, ranking him top-two in both categories over the past 15 days. Martinez’s eight percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings relegates him to tournament status, but given his 5.0 projected strikeouts, it may not be money well spent.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): -16, Zach Davies
Davies faces an uphill battle if you’re hunting for a win. The Brewers are currently implied to score 3.3 runs against Max Scherzer. While Davies may be off the table at FanDuel, he’s been sensational of late, posting 25.8 DraftKings points per game over the past month, third only to Scherzer. Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, and Michael Taylor are the only hitters in the Nationals lineup with positive differentials in all three advanced stats over the past 15 days. The middle of their projected order is littered with players underperforming compared to the past year. If you’re going to fade Scherzer, consider Davies. If you want to be contrarian, roster both Scherzer and Davies and hope for a pitching duel.
Bargain Rating: 99% (FD), Danny Salazar
Because Salazar costs $13,000 on DraftKings for the first time in the FantasyLabs database, his $10,000 salary on FanDuel appears much more palatable. If you play on DraftKings, the wise move would be to pay the additional $900 for Max Scherzer or save over $1,500 by focusing elsewhere. Salazar has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 starts on FanDuel, which is encouraging even though his recent advanced stats imply imminent disaster. Among Friday’s probable starters, he ranks bottom-six in Batted-Ball Distance, bottom-two in Exit Velocity, bottom-four in Hard-Hit percentage, and bottom-five in percentage of strikes thrown over the past 15 days.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 14 (DK), Yasmany Tomas
For the second week in a row, Rickie Weeks leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, but since he didn’t play last Friday and he’s missing from the projected lineup, Tomas will suffice. He’s priced appropriately for a Coors Field game, but his Dud rate of 50 percent on FanDuel and 47 percent on DraftKings over the past month requires further inspection.
