The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Zack Wheeler (R)
- Chris Sale (L)
- Corey Kluber (R)
- Walker Buehler (R)
Zack Wheeler is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate at $10,400, and for good reason. His points projection is six points more than the second-highest pitcher, and he’s the only one with a Ceiling Projection over 40. Wheeler has the highest SO/9, lowest HR/9, and second-lowest WHIP on the slate. The K Prediction is the highest at 7.63, and he boasts the highest Projected Plus/Minus at +6.63.
Now let’s get into the matchup against the Orioles. The Orioles are seventh in strikeouts and 21st in ISO against right-handed pitching. The Vegas Dashboard has the implied run total for them at a slate-low 3.1. Despite the high price tag, Wheeler still boasts a 60% Bargain Rating. Finally, since this game is in Philadelphia, the Orioles lose the designated hitter.
Chris Sale has the second-highest K Prediction at 7.14. Out of the top four projected pitchers, he’s the only one with an HR/9 over one and has a 25% Consistency Rating over the last four starts. He’s gone for 24.99, 9.5, 11.66, and 13.45 DraftKings points. The K/9 of 9.3 in 30 innings this season is a far cry from the 13 K/9 he’s posted over the prior three seasons he pitched.
The matchup is a good one as the Mets are eight in strikeouts and 26th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Priced at $9,600, the Player Model has him with a 64% Bargain Rating.
Corey Kluber is priced at $9,000 and has a Bargain Rating of only 16%. He was priced at $7,400 four starts ago and has produced 6.8, 9.46, 8.8, and 21.3 DraftKings points over that span. Like Sale, he has a 25% Consistency Rating over his last four starts and a 42% Consistency Rating for the season. In 71 innings pitched this season, the K/9 of 9.63 is fine, but the walk rate is at 4.06, and the FIP is at 4.05.
The matchup is also a good one for Kluber as the Rangers are 16th in strikeouts and 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Kluber faced the Rangers way back in May and put up 51.65 DraftKings points. Granted, that was a long time ago, and he missed all of June, July, and August, so he was a different pitcher then. It is within the range of outcomes, though.
Walker Buehler gets to pitch in Coors Field. Yippee! The Vegas Dashboard has the Rockies implied for 4.3 runs, which was bet down from an opening line of 4.5. Out of the top four projected pitchers, Buehler has the highest Consistency Rating on the season at 70%.
Per the Trends tool, it’s been tough sledding for Buehler when pitching in Colorado:
In two starts this season, though, things have been much better.
The Projected Plus/Minus is only +0.7 for Buehler, and pitching in Coors Field is always a difficult endeavor. That said, he is still one of the higher projected pitchers on the slate. The price of $9,800 is high, but he would make a great leverage play if the Rockies stack garners high ownership and he himself has projected low ownership.
Value
Speaking of leverage plays, German Marquez is THE leverage play on the slate. At $7,400, he is not the cheapest pitcher, but he has an 87% Bargain Rating according to the Player Model. The Dodgers are implied for a 6.2 run total, the highest on the slate.
Back on Opening Day, Marquez only put up 3.8 DraftKings points. Zooming in closer, though, he only allowed one earned run in four innings. The damage was in the six walks.
On the season, Marquez has been a better pitcher at home than on the road. The HR/9 is 0.77 compared to 1.4, and the FIP is 3.5 at home and 4.13 on the road.
Per the Trends tool, in four career starts against the Dodgers at home, Marquez has posted a Plus/Minus of +3.48 points and averaged 14.58 DraftKings points.
The Dodgers stack is going to be highly rostered, while Marquez will be owned in one to two percent of lineups. As I said, it is THE leverage play on the slate. Are the probabilities high for this outcome? Negative, Ghost Rider, but if it hits, it could vault you up the leaderboard.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
The top projected stack is the Dodgers, of course as they get to hit in Coors Field. If you didn’t read the value pitcher, then scroll that mouse up a few clicks. A five-player Dodgers stack will cost $27.1K on DraftKings with a projection of 51.1 points.
- Max Muncy (L)
- Trea Turner (R)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Mookie Betts (R)
The Dodgers are implied for 6.2 runs. They face German Marquez, who I went over above. The Rockies bullpen does have the fifth-highest FIP, so Marquez could still pitch well with the Dodgers still getting there.
Max Muncy will likely bat second in the lineup. He has 34 home runs, 90 runs, and 87 RBI on the season. For a power hitter, the 14% walk rate and 20.6% strikeout rate are awe-inspiring. He’s played 22 games in Coors Field, and the Plus/Minus is +3.77 while averaging 12.91 DraftKings points.
Trea Turner will likely bat third in the lineup. He has 22 home runs, 92 runs, and 30 stolen bases on the season. The slash is .318/.365/.503 with a .185 ISO. Turner has played 11 games in Coors Field and has a +7.31 Plus/Minus, 63.6% Consistency Rating, and 17.09 average fantasy points.
Justin Turner will likely bat fifth in the order. He has 25 home runs, 79 runs, and 81 RBI on the season. The strikeout rate is only 16.7%, while the walk rate is 9.9%. In 46 career games in Coors Field, the Consistency Rating is 50%, Plus/Minus is +0.88, while averaging 9.48 fantasy points.
Corey Seager will likely bat cleanup for the Dodgers. Seager has 10 home runs, 44 runs, and 46 RBI in 360 plate appearances. The strikeout rate is only 16.4%, while the walk rate is 11.9%. In 29 games in Coors Field, he has a 44.8% Consistency Rating, +0.81 Plus/Minus and averages just over 10 DraftKings points.
Mookie Betts will likely bat leadoff. Crazy. How do the Dodgers ever lose a game? Betts has 21 home runs, 84 runs, and 10 stolen bases. The strikeout rate is 15.6%, while the walk rate is 12.4%. I’m beginning to get scared of my Marquez leverage play. In nine games in Coors Field, he has a 44.4% Consistency Rating, +0.92 Plus/Minus, and averaging 10.56 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
Freddie Freeman has a .314/.412/.535 slash with a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching. He gets to face Merrill Kelly, who has a 17.2% strikeout rate against lefties. Once he’s out of the game, the Diamondbacks bullpen has the highest FIP in MLB.
I like the Astros stack against the Angels today, especially the right-handed bats. Carlos Correa has a .281/.355/.516 slash with a .235 ISO against right-handed pitching. Janson Junk has a 7.1% strikeout rate against righties and has given up two home runs in only three innings to them. Once he’s out of the game, the Angels bullpen has the 12th-highest FIP.
The Yankees stack was low-owned yesterday, and they may get overlooked again. Taylor Hearn is on the mound for the Rangers, and he serves up the long ball to both righties and lefties. The strikeout rate is 19.9% to righties, and the FIP is 5.23. Aaron Judge stands out as the best Yankees masher as the Player Model has him with a .325 ISO, 0.65 SLG, and 0.25 SO/AB.
Value Play
Andrew McCutchen has a .304 ISO, .607 SLG, and .214 SO/AB according to the stat split in the Player Model. Against left-handed pitching, he has a .303/.418/.638 slash with a .336 ISO. Keegan Akin has a 6.88 K/9, 1.72 HR/9, and 5.57 FIP to righties. McCutchen is priced at $3,800.
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