The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Julio Urias (L)
- Joe Musgrove (R)
- Tylor Megill (R)
- Sean Manaea (L)
Julio Urias is the only pitcher priced above $10,000, which shows the lack of elite pitching options on today’s slate. His K/9 is 9.64, the swinging-strike rate is 11.6%, and the FIP is 3.27, but those numbers are a far cry from top tier guys like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
That said, he’s been fantastic in his last four starts, posting a 100% Consistency rating and producing 30.15, 25.96, 25.1, and 21.45 DraftKings points. He faces the Diamondbacks today who rank 21st in strikeouts against left-handed pitching but only 18th in ISO.
Urias does have an excellent history against them, per the Trends tool; he has faced Arizona four times over the past two seasons and posted a 7.61 Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency rating. The price is high, but the Vegas Dashboard has the Diamondbacks with the lowest implied run total by a wide margin at 2.8.
Joe Musgrove is $1000 cheaper than Urias and he boasts a SO/9 of 10.36, the highest on the slate. Urias sits at 9.19. The Projection and Ceiling numbers are very close between the two pitchers, but Musgrove has a worse matchup and he hasn’t been as consistent recently.
While the Giants do strike out more than the Diamondbacks, they are numero uno in ISO against right-handed pitching. In two meetings this season against the Giants, Musgrove has produced 11.85 and 9.65 DraftKings points, for a total Plus/Minus of -11.68.
It’s been quite the ride for Tylor Megill this season. He was priced at $4900 for his debut, crushed it, then four starts later was a $9k pitcher for three starts. The roller coaster began its descent until he bottomed out at $6900 three starts ago. Now he’s back up above $9000. He has gone for 18.85 and 32.75 DraftKings points in his most recent starts but the elevated price has more to do with the pitching pool than anything else.
The K/9 is fantastic at 10.2 while the swinging-strike rate is 12.6% but the FIP is 4.26 while the HR/9 is 1.74. The Cardinals do not strike out often against right-handed pitching as they are 25th but they are also 26th in ISO so there’s not much power.
Sean Manaea isn’t cheap, as the DraftKings price is $9800 resulting in a 26% Bargain rating. The matchup isn’t particularly good as well since the Royals are 29th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. They are only 23rd in ISO, though.
Over the past month, Manaea has posted the most Upside games at 40% but he’s also produced the most Duds as well at 40%. It’s tough to go here considering the price and lack of consistency. The Bales Model has him as the lowest-rated pitcher among the top four projected.
Ranger Suarez is priced at $7200 and gets a fantastic matchup as the Cubs have the lowest wOBA on the slate and are second in SO/AB. The Player Model has him with a 95% Bargain rating and his consistency has been off the charts – 85% on the year and 75% over the past month. In 78 innings this season, Suarez has posted a 9 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, and 2.97 FIP.
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
The top projected stack is Houston. A five-player Astros stack will cost 24.2K on DraftKings with a projection of 48.1 points.
- Yuli Gurriel (R)
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
The Astros are projected for 5.4 runs. Only the White Sox have a higher run total at 5.8. Kohei Arihara is on the mound for the Rangers and he is #notgood. In 36 2/3 innings, he’s posted a 5.65 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 2.21 HR/9, and 6.33 FIP. The swinging-strike rate is a paltry 7.2%. In terms of splits, he’s been getting crushed by righties as the HR/9 is 3.26 while the FIP is 7.56.
Yuli Gurriel is good against both righties and lefties but the power is much better against left-handed pitching. The ISO is .222 compared to .115 against righties.
Unlike Gurriel, Jose Altuve has more power against righties. That said, the slash is still .272/.333/.422 with a .150 ISO against lefties. He bats leadoff for the Astros who will be the visiting team in this one.
Alex Bregman will likely bat second in the order. The slash is .333/.435/.495 against lefties while he’s still good against righties with a .275/.338/.438 slash. The ISO is .162 against both.
Carlos Correa bats for a higher average against lefties but shows more pop against righties. The ISO is still .155 against left-handed pitching. He will likely bat third.
Yordan Alvarez is the cleanup hitter for the Astros, and for a good reason. He has 30 home runs and 94 RBI on the season. For a power hitter, the .281/.350/.537 slash is mighty impressive. He’s also more proficient against lefties than righties as the slash is .296/.357/.566 with a .270 ISO against them compared to .271/.346/.518 with a .246 ISO against righties.
Tim Anderson is the second-highest-rated hitter in the Bales Model. He has 14 home runs, 82 runs, and 17 stolen bases on the season. The slash is .301/.329/.455 with a .154 ISO. He gets to face Janson Junk who just allowed two home runs in 3 2/3 innings in his MLB debut. Seriously, how can you not stack against a pitcher named Junk? The Angels bullpen also has the 14th-highest FIP.
Mookie Betts has been on fire over this last 10 games. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of 2.37 and exceeded expectations 50% of the time. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .280/.386/.516 slash with a .235 ISO. Merrill Kelly has a 4.34 FIP and has allowed 1.66 HR/9 to righties. Once he’s out of the game, the Diamondbacks bullpen has the highest FIP in the league and have allowed the fifth-most HR/9.
Aaron Judge is in play on any slate. The strikeout rate is high but the power is massive. He also hits for a decent average. He goes up again John Means today, who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 to righties and has a 4.8 FIP against them. Per the Trends tool, Judge has faced Means four times in his career and posted a 4.2 Plus/Minus with a 75% Consistency score.
Eloy Jimenez is just too cheap at $3800. The White Sox are projected for a slate-high 5.8 runs and a Junk is on the mound. I went over Junk and the Angels bullpen in the Tim Anderson section. Against right-handed pitching, Jimenez has a .291/.331/.527 slash with a .236 ISO. He will likely bat cleanup for the White Sox today.
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Pictured above: Tim Anderson.
Photo credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images.