Friday’s main slate features four games starting at 2:07 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in order are:
Corbin Burnes (R)
Lucas Giolito (R)
Charlie Morton (R)
Chris Sale (L)
The highest-priced pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers. Burnes was stellar throughout his 2021 campaign. In 167 innings, he struck out 234, had a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 11-5 record. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers ranked top four in the following MLB statistical categories: Wins (95), ERA (3.50), Strikeouts (1618), and Quality Starts (70).
Burnes was beyond serviceable in the rotation and even contributed to a combined no-hitter this past season. Burnes will be on the mound this afternoon pitching against the Atlanta Braves, who are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.2 runs). The Brewers are the biggest favorites on the slate and will be heavily depending on a strong performance from Burnes. Today, Burnes is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Possibly the most consistent pitcher you will find on the slate is Lucas Giolito from the Chicago White Sox. In 13 of his last 14 starts, Giolito allowed three or fewer earned runs against him after a slow start to the season. Giolito found success at the right time and is hoping to continue this momentum in the postseason. Giolito will be on the hill pitching against the Houston Astros, who dominated the White Sox in yesterday’s ball game. The main reason why we are highlighting Giolito is his successful recent start against the Astros. He threw a complete game in which he allowed only three hits, one home run, and struck out eight. If Giolito can produce a similar performance today, he could even up the series at one game apiece.
Charlie Morton from the Atlanta Braves has valuable postseason experience, which should help him pitching on the road today. In the last four years, Morton has started two World Series games and has an ERA of 3.38 in his 61.1 MLB playoff innings. Morton was considered the losing pitcher in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, although he earned a quality start. Morton will need to bring his “A-game” today to keep up with Burnes on the opposite of the diamond.
Another pitcher worth consideration today is Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox. Although Sale has only thrown 42.2 innings this season, he has been effective. A 5-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts are pretty good numbers for a pitcher whose first start came in August. Like the White Sox, the Red Sox also struggled in yesterday’s game. In a 5-0 loss against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Red Sox pitching allowed two home runs while only striking out five. During the regular season, the Rays struck out the third-most in MLB (1,542). If Sale and the Red Sox want any chance in this series, they will have to generate some swing and misses from a team that is known to swing and miss in the past.
The second highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is Walker Buehler from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Today, Buehler has a tough task pitching against the San Francisco Giants, but his low DK price point sparks my interest. His $8,500 price tag seems like a steal for a pitcher that was dominant during the 2021 regular season. Although Buehler doesn’t have a high ceiling nor projected point total, he is always extremely effective while pitching. One concern I do have about Buehler is the pitch count he will be allowed. He did not eclipse the century mark in his last seven starts, and the Dodgers have many viable arms in the bullpen to use.
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -115 Houston Astros:
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Yordan Alverez (L)
- Yulieski Gurriel (R)
The Astros are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate today (4.2 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $11.8k in salary and are projected for a combined 44.7 fantasy points. Yes, this is the exact same stack as yesterday, but I was always told, “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” Oddsmakers seem to be in agreeance that this is the top game from a fantasy perspective to consider as it has the highest Over/Under (8 -115).
It is worth noting that the Giants (52) have a higher team value rating than the Dodgers (38) today. If you are looking to play more contrarian, I highly recommend taking a chance with a couple Giants like LaMonte Wade and Tommy La Stella, who are both highly rated on Bales Model.
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Yandy Diaz
- Omar Narvaez
- Jordan Luplow
- Matt Beaty
- Manuel Margot