Thursday features a single-game MLB Showdown slate starting at 9:07 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
With a deciding game five upon us, the San Francisco Giants are turning the ball over to right-handed pitcher Logan Webb. In Webb’s first career postseason start last week, he was dominant. Webb threw 7.2 innings, allowed only five base runners, and struck out 10. Hoping to replicate his game one performance, Webb will have a tough task today as the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers come to visit with their loaded batting order. The Dodgers are projected for an implied run total of 3.5 runs.
On the opposite side of the diamond, Julio Urias will be on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Urias is projected for the most fantasy points in the Bales Model today as he will look to continue his winning ways. During the regular season, Urias led all of baseball in wins and picked up the victory in game two of the NLDS. In five innings, Urias allowed only four base runners and struck out five. Tonight, Urias will be on the mound again in what figures to be a pitcher’s duel as the San Francisco Giants are projected for an implied runs total of 3.6.
It is worth noting that there is a projected seven-mph wind blowing out to right-center field which could aid the offenses a bit.
Although the Dodgers have outscored the Giants 16-9 in the first four games of the series, the Dodgers were shutout in two of the four games. L.A. has lacked consistency.
Outfielder, Mookie Betts, has collected five hits in his 16 at bats which includes one home run. In eight years of MLB experience, this is his fifth time in the postseason as he has a career .345 on base percentage through 11 series. Betts has much more “big game” experience than many of the other players and is a reliable source for the Dodgers’ offence.
Another Dodgers player worth consideration today is Justin Turner. Turner has struggled mightily throughout the divisional series against the Giants as he has collected only one hit. Although he has been subpar, Turner always seems to shine on the biggest stages. In the NL Wild Card Game, Turner hit his 13th career postseason home run. With a NLCS berth at stake, look for Turner to come up clutch again.
For the Giants, the most consistent player this postseason has been Kris Bryant. With a .462 batting average, Bryant currently ranks fourth in all of baseball this postseason. In 13 at bats, Bryant has reached base via hit six times including one home run. The only game this series in which Bryant did not reach base was when Urias was on the mound.
Another Giants batter that deserves some attention is catcher, Buster Posey. This postseason, Posey has collected five hits in 16 at bats including a hard-hit double off Urias. After going 0-4 in his last start, the Giants will be depending on their long-time catcher for an offensive spark, especially since he’s one of their best hitters against lefties (174 wRC+).
Value and Punts
The highest rated player on Bales Model today is Austin Slater from the San Francisco Giants. Although he is not an everyday starter, Slater has contributed two hits in three at bats this series. Priced at $4800, Slater is a strong value play as he is expected to bat leadoff tonight. With Slater swinging a hot bat, I highly recommend having the Giants outfielder in your lineup tonight.
The last batter we are going to mention today is Cody Bellinger from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bellinger had the worst regular season of his career. In 328 at bats, Bellinger had a career low batting average of .165 and only 10 home runs. The 2019 NL MVP has looked like a shell of his former self although he has proven to be capable of handling the spotlight. Bellinger is projected to bat near the bottom of the Dodgers order so he might be an interesting contrarian play.