Saturday features a six-game MLB DFS slate on FanDuel and a seven-game slate on DraftKings starting at 7:05 pm. ET. I’ll feature my favorite plays and identify value options using the FantasyLabs tools and models.
Pitchers
Studs
There are two pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Lance Lynn (R) $9,500
Lance Lynn will put his brilliant 1.59 ERA and 4-0 record to the test in tonight’s matchup against the high-powered Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In his last start against the Athletics, Lynn struck out eight batters in six innings and picked up his fourth win of the season. He has been an ace-level pitcher for the Rangers this season, boasting an elite 28.4% strikeout rate and pitching at least six innings in all but one of his starts.
Despite Lynn’s solid form, tonight’s brutal matchup against the Dodgers bodes ominously for his DFS prospects. Los Angeles has hit exceptionally well against right-handed pitching, boasting a .255 ISO and 131 wRC+. Both of those marks rank first in MLB. In addition to those solid hitting metrics, the Dodgers also sport the lowest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching at 19.1%.
Lynn’s Vegas odds for this matchup are less than ideal: The Dodgers come in as -152 road favorites (FanDuel Sportsbook). They also own an implied team run total of 4.8 compared to the Rangers’ 3.8 implied runs. From the Bales Model, Lynn owns the highest ceiling rating and strikeout prediction of all pitchers on the main slate. If he can work his way around LA’s talented lineup, I do think that there is a path for Lynn to pitch well. For that reason, I like him in tournaments; but for cash games, I would look for a safer option.
Dylan Bundy (R) $9,100
Dylan Bundy takes the mound tonight against the Seattle Mariners. Bundy pitched well in his last start against the Athletics, allowing only two runs and striking out six batters over 5.2 innings.
Tonight, Bundy draws a much more exploitable matchup against a soft-hitting Mariners lineup reporting a mediocre .301 wOBA. In his two starts against the Mariners, Bundy has accumulated 18 strikeouts and allowed only four runs 15 innings of action. Bundy will look to pad his already-impressive 28.9% strikeout rate against Seattle’s lineup, which has struggled against right-handed pitching this year. The Mariners report a 24.4% strikeout rate, which ranks among the bottom-10 in MLB.
Bundy is my favorite pitcher to pay up for on tonight’s slate. He earns the highest pitcher rating and upside rating in the Bales Model. Given his good recent form and favorable matchup, I expect Bundy to be highly-owned. Therefore, it may be wise to fade Bundy in tournaments in order to gain leverage on the field. But for cash games, lock Bundy into your lineups with confidence.
Values
Ross Stripling (R) $7,300
Ross Stripling will attempt to right the ship tonight against the Texas Rangers. He was dreadful at the start of the season, as evidenced by his career-worst 5.46 ERA and 6.83 FIP. The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed a lot of fly balls (41.2%) and hard contact (51.5%), which has resulted in him giving up home runs at an alarming rate of 3.03 HR/9.
Nonetheless, Stripling is in a strong position to correct his poor recent form in a favorable matchup against the Rangers. Texas owns a laughable .212 batting average and .278 wOBA, both of which rank among the bottom-three in the league. In addition, the Rangers sport a team strikeout rate of 23.6% and have not hit right-handed pitching well (.271 wOBA).
If Stripling can keep the ball on the ground, then he has a strong probability to pick up the win. He does have one game this year where he scored 49 fantasy points on FanDuel. So, it is possible that he can pitch well and pay off his $7,300 prices tag on FanDuel. From the Bales Model, Stripling sports the highest player rating of any pitcher, making him an interesting salary-saving option in all formats.
Luke Weaver (R) $7,100
Luke Weaver started off the season poorly but has recently put together two solid starts for the Diamondbacks. After allowing 12 earned runs across 7.1 innings in his first two games of 2020, the 27-year-old righty appears to have turned things around. In his last start against the Giants he struck out five in five innings while only allowing two earned runs. He now gets the benefit of facing the same Giants team on his home mound. Weaver comes into this game with solid Vegas odds as the Diamondbacks are -138 favorites (FanDuel Sportsbook), and the Giants are only projected to score 4.4 runs.
The Bales Model sees Weaver as a decent value option tonight as he owns the highest Plus/Minus rating of all pitchers. Given that pitching options in this range are somewhat limited on this slate, Weaver grades out as a decent salary-saving option. I especially like rostering him in large-field tournaments, where he could see lower ownership due to his elevated 7.77 ERA.
Fastballs
Justus Sheffield (L) $8,300
Justus Sheffield draws a matchup against the Angels. In his last three starts Sheffield has been dominant, allowing only two total runs and striking out 16 batters over 18 innings. The Angels have not hit left-handed pitching well, ranking bottom-10 in MLB in team wRC+ (73), wOBA (.275) and batting average (.211). If he can work his way around the bats of Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout, I like his chances to deliver a fourth straight quality start.
Brett Anderson (L) $8,000
Brett Anderson faces the soft-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates (.266 wOBA). The Brewers are heavy favorites in this matchup at -198 (FanDuel Sportsbook) and the Pirates own an implied team run total of 3.9. Although Anderson has not generated many strikeouts, this Pirates lineup should not pose much of a threat to score runs against him. With the best Vegas odds of the slate backing him, Anderson grades out as a safe mid-tier pitching option in all formats.
Notable Stacks
Tonight’s top four-man stack on FanDuel belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Trent Grisham (L) $3,800
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) $4,900
- Manny Machado (R) $4,200
- Eric Hosmer (L) $4,000
Total Salary: $16,900
The Padres are in a dream spot against Antonio Senzatela as the game is being played at the best hitters park in all of baseball with the wind forecasted to blow out around 10 mph. The Padres own the slates highest implied team run total at 6.6. My favorite hitter of the stack is Trent Grisham, who is projected to bat leadoff at a cost of only $3,800 on FanDuel. He has been crushing the ball lately as he owns a .217 ISO and .345 wOBA across the past two weeks. Grisham grades out as one of the top hitters of the slate, sporting a top-10 player rating and top-10 Plus/Minus differential in the Bales Model.
The top five-man stack on DraftKings belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Garrett Hampson (R) $4,000
- Trevor Story (R) $5,700
- Nolan Arenado (R) $5,500
- Charlie Blackmon (L) $5,800
Total Salary: $21,000
It should come as no surprise that the other top stacking option is the opposing team at Coors Field. The Rockies own an implied team run total of 6.3 and grade out exceptionally well against southpaw Adrian Morejon, who lasted only 1.2 innings in his last start against the Astros. Nolan Arenado is one of the best hitters on the slate as he has absolutely crushed southpaws at Coors Field (.293 ISO). If I had to bet on one hitter to hit a home run tonight, it would be Arenado. Lock him into your lineups with confidence tonight.
Other Bats
Alex Verdugo (L) $3,000
Alex Verdugo is projected to bat leadoff for the Red Sox, who own an implied team run total of 5.5 against Anibal Sanchez. Verdugo is a solid option for cash games as he constantly gets on base and score runs. In addition, Sanchez has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing home runs at an alarming rate of 2.45 HR/9 this season.
Eric Thames (L) $2,300
Eric Thames is an excellent salary-saving option tonight in his matchup against Chris Mazza. The Nationals are projected to score 5.6 runs, and Thames should have ample opportunities to generate RBIs batting in the heart of the lineup. Albeit a small sample size, Mazza has struggled against left-handed hitters in 2020, allowing home runs at a rate of 5.40 HR/9.
After reading this article, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs news for injury updates, inactive reports, and lineup changes before the MLB DFS slate kicks off this evening.
Pictured above: Nolan Arenado (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images).
