We have 10 games on Sunday’s Major League Baseball slate, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
The top-rated pitcher on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Max Fried from the Atlanta Braves. Although he was pulled from his last start due to cramping, Fried has been elite in the month of May. In his 17 innings pitched, he has allowed only three earned runs, while striking out 18 batters. He will be pitching against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the lowest projected implied runs total on the slate (3.5).
The highest-priced pitcher on the slate is Zack Wheeler from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wheeler has been great to begin his 2021 campaign, throwing 66 strikeouts in only 60.2 innings. He will be pitching against the Boston Red Sox, who have the second-best record (29-18) in baseball. The Red Sox, who are are on a four-game winning streak, have won seven out of their last 10 games. Bales Model suggests that this is a great spot to fade Wheeler due to his high price and tough matchup.
A player who has a moderately high projected ownership per Bales Model is Cody Poteet from the Miami Marlins. Poteet has pitched well in his first two starts of the year and will be hoping to continue that strong momentum against the New York Mets. The Mets have only one position player priced above $4,000 in their projected lineup, and a projected 13-mph wind blowing in from right field will not help.
Jameson Taillon is a pitcher worth considering on FanDuel as he rates highly on Bales Model. Although Taillon has allowed nine home runs in the first two months of the season, he is a viable option as he has 46 strikeouts in only 37.2 innings pitched. He will be taking on the Chicago White Sox who have the fourth-highest team batting average in MLB (.256). Playing in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium usually causes some high scoring games. However, the White Sox have only scored one run in their first two games of the series.
Pro Trends has Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic as a 97% bargain on DraftKings. I’m not sure why his price has only risen by $1,000 after three consecutive solid starts, but I recommend looking at Bubic as a strong value play. In his last 17.2 innings, he has allowed only six hits and no runs against, while striking out 13 batters. Bubic will be pitching against the Detroit Tigers, who have struck out the third most in baseball (465) through their first 45 games of the year.
Two starting pitchers that are expected to have a high ownership are Hyun-Jin Ryu and Freddy Peralta. Although they are both rated highly on Bales Model, I would strictly be looking to play these two in cash games due to ownership.
In contrary, two starting pitchers that are expected to have lower ownership are Luis Castillo and Patrick Corbin. These two are strong GPP options as they have been extremely inconsistent, but offer high potential.
The top stack comes to you from the Washington Nationals:
- Trea Turner (R)
- Juan Soto (L)
- Josh Bell (S)
- Kyle Schwarber (L)
Projected to have the highest implied runs total of 5.5 on the slate, the Nationals batters will be hoping to take advantage of extremely inconsistent Baltimore Orioles pitcher Matt Harvey. In his last start, Harvey only lasted 1.2 innings, as he allowed seven hits and six earned runs including two home runs. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $15,000 in salary and are projected for a combined 52.9 fantasy points.
Bales Model projects that highest-floor play not already mentioned is Alex Bregman from the Houston Astros. Bregman has reached base safely in his last 11 games and is coming off a two-hit performance on Saturday. Although his power numbers are down on the year, Bregman always has home-run potential.
Two highly rated batters on Bales Model who also have a low projected ownership are DJ LeMahieu and Cesar Hernandez. Both second basemen and lead-off batters for their respective teams, LeMahieu and Hernandez offer high potential as both the New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians have a projected implied runs total of 4.9 in their game.
No weather concerns to speak of at this time, but I would like to mention that there is a projected wind blowing in the batters’ favor in the following games: PIT @ ATL, MIL @ CIN, TB @TOR, and DET @ KC.
As always, here is a handful of value batters to consider while completing your lineups today:
- Eddie Rosario
- Amed Rosario
- Rowdy Tellez
- Max Schrock
- Andrew Knapp