Tuesday brings us a nearly full main Major League Baseball slate, with first pitch starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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The favorite on the Bales Model for this evening on both sites is Lucas Giolito.
Like I have said before, Giolito has not been “vintage” Giolito at most points throughout this year. He is throwing the ball pretty well of late though. In his last four starts, he has not allowed more than two earned runs and the same can be said for eight of his last nine starts.
The match-up is juicy for Giolito, facing the Pittsburgh Pirates. All throughout the year, the Pirates have been one of the lighter hitting teams. They are dead last in runs per game at 3.59 this season.
He seems very safe for usage in cash games.
There are a few other studs on the slate as well. Brandon Woodruff is better suited for usage on DraftKings based on his price.
Woodruff has cooled a bit from his Cy Young worth April and May. That doesn’t mean he has transformed into some horrendous pitcher, though. He just completed six shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds with 10 strikeouts.
Woodruff faces the San Francisco Giants. It is not a great matchup in the sense that this should be a tightly contested game. I do however, along with Vegas, believe that these two teams should play low-scoring affairs. On Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers earned a 3-1 win over the Giants. The total for this game sits at 7.5 runs.
The Giants are the eighth-worst team in terms of strikeout percentage and Woodruff is hitting for six ProTrends here. It might not be the most popular angle, plus he might not be able to record a win in a low-scoring affair, but he makes for interesting pivot play.
I am a little surprised that Walker Buehler does not rate out better on this slate. I get that the Atlanta Braves have a rather imposing offense (eight most runs per game), it is just that Buehler is easily one of the best pitchers in the league.
Buehler has lowered his monthly ERA every single month this year. He might be the only pitcher that can say that, with warmer weather and the “sticky stuff” situation. He has not given up more than two earned runs since July 5.
Of course, it is all relative based on price and he is going to come in a decent bit more expensive than Giolito or Woodruff. He is probably just about the safest starting pitcher to back right now, outside of maybe Corbin Burnes.
Atlanta is 10th worst in the league in K%, not that Buehler needs any further help in that department.
The “value” play on either site might just be Jameson Taillon. He was impressive in July, posting a 1.16 ERA for the month, but has struggled to continue that success into August. The key for Taillon is simple, limit home runs. He has allowed five in August, while there were only two in July.
The Los Angeles Angels are relatively average in home-run ratio numbers, and just number of home runs overall. Of course, they have the soon-to-be AL MVP in Shohei Ohtani that is a threat to go deep every night.
One positive from Taillon: the New York Yankees have won each of his last eight starts with him recording a win in four of those. It’s definitely a risk/reward play that I would only keep to GPPs. Taillon has posted some big strikeout games every once in awhile.
One last starter to consider: Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers has not been the most consistent pitcher, as he usually is good to give up a few earned runs, but he has been remarkably consistent at recording strikeouts.
I like that consistency when looking to lock-in starters for DFS. McCullers has fewer than seven strikeouts in one start since the beginning of July. Bottom line, not too many guys can say that. It provides a nice floor for what to expect from him going into an outing. To his benefit, he faces the Seattle Mariners who have been one of the most consistent teams at striking out.
McCullers has recorded eight strikeouts against them twice on July 27 and August 20.
I think I consider him in GPPs as well. I would not necessarily expect him to shutout the Mariners, but he should be looking at a nice stat-line at the end of the night.
The top stack belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 2. Anthony Rizzo (L – 5-8%)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R – 5-8%)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L – 5-8%)
- 3. Aaron Judge (R – 5-8%)
This group is projected for 51.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,000. This makes a whole lot of sense to me. The Yankees’ offense (outside of the final two games against Oakland) has been red hot. They face Jaime Barria who is not at all a strikeout pitcher and will not last long into this game. Stanton seems to be ripping off 450-plus foot home runs at will, with seven home runs in his last 12 games.
Judge had his length on-base streak snapped in Oakland on Sunday, but has a multi-hit game in six of his last seven games. Rizzo has been a little colder of late, but did collect two hits including a double last night. The Yankees have an implied run total of 5.6 and it looks like the wind should be blowing out to center in Anaheim.
Even with their documented struggles on the road, some exposure to the Colorado Rockies makes sense tonight. Both Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story rate out as bargains on the Bales Model. They get to face Jordan Lyles who just gives up home runs left and right. He has given up 33 home runs this year, including eight this month (nine in July). He is coming off of a start in which he gave up eight earned runs to the Cleveland Indians. Blackmon and Story both hit for six ProTrends.
Luis Arraez is the favorite hitter on the Bales Model, as he comes in near site minimums and is projected to hit lead-off for the Minnesota Twins. Arraez for sure does not feature very much pop, but is one of the more well-established contact hitters in the league. He is in a mini-slump right now, but facing Zach Davies may help that. In general, he should be able to avoid putting up a zero.
Another popular stack may come from the White Sox. With their lineup more fully intact as some key pieces have returned from injury, they are a threat to put up serious runs on any given night. Eloy Jimenez features prominently in the Lineup Optimizer, as he gets set to face Bryse Wilson of the Pirates.
Jimenez is showcasing what the White Sox missed in the first half of the year. He has seven home runs in August. He also has an eye-popping 27 RBI’s this month, which showcases the positive hitting spots being in the middle of this lineup will bring. Jimenez hits for five ProTrends.