With day games galone, Saturday’s main slate features only four games starting at 7:15 pm ET.
The highest-rated pitcher on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Dinelson Lamet from the San Diego Padres. Not only has Lamet’s pitch count increased as the season has gone on, his strikeout numbers have also risen. His last start against the Cincinnati Reds was his best outing of the year. In five innings, Lamet allowed four hits and struck out seven. Today, he will be on the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks who are projected to have the lowest implied runs total on the slate (2.9 runs). The Diamondbacks have lost their last 24 games on the road, and this historic streak has no end in sight as they are +230 underdogs tonight.
The most expensive pitcher on today’s slate is Julio Urias from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Urias has the third-most wins in MLB with nine in only 15 starts. My concerns with Urias are his high ERA (3.99) and he has given up at least one home run in his past six starts. Last time on the mound, Urias was pulled out of the game after only four innings. In those four innings, he allowed six earned runs on six hits including two home runs. Today, Urias will be pitching against the Chicago Cubs who rank fifth in MLB in team home runs (103).
Pro Trends considers Alex Wood from the San Francisco Giants as the biggest bargain (72%) on FanDuel tonight. Wood has an impressive 6-3 record; however, his 4.09 ERA is not so attractive. After five wins in the opening two months of the 2021 season, Wood has only won once in his last six starts. Tonight, he will be on the mound against the Oakland Athletics who are projected for the third-lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.9 runs).
The pitcher that will be opposing Wood today is Frankie Montas. Like Wood and Urias, Montas’ ERA has ballooned due to some poor starts recently. Last game, Montas lasted 5 2/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs, including two home runs. Looking on the bright side, Montas has struck out 22 opposing batters in his last three starts and will hope to build off this momentum. Today, Montas will be facing the San Francisco Giants who have the best record in the National League (49-26) and have won nine of their last 10 games.
When looking for value, I immediately go to Bales Model and use the points per salary projection tab. If you are looking to spend a little less in salary, I would look at Merrill Kelly or Jordan Montgomery.
Both Kelly and Montgomery were impressive in their last starts, combining for 11 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings and allowed only one earned run each. Bales Model gives the nod to Montgomery, but I truly don’t think you could go wrong with either pitcher when trying to save salary.
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -199 Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Max Muncy (L)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
The Dodgers have the highest projected implied runs total on the slate (5.4 runs) and will be hoping to take advantage of Chicago Cubs pitcher Alec Mills, who is the lowest-rated pitcher on Bales Model by quite a large margin. Although Mills pitched well his last start allowing six hits and no runs in five innings, luck was on his side as he was able to work his way out of a few jams. With all things considered, the Dodgers’ offense is due for a big output today as they have only scored 13 runs in their last five games. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $14.9K in salary and is projected for a combined 50.7 fantasy points.
As usual, the Dodgers batters will be highly owned. If you are looking to avoid high ownership, I recommend looking at the San Francisco Giants batters as they have been sneaky good this year. Some names that stand out on Bales Model are LaMonte Wade Jr., Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski.
The second-highest rated batter on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Boston Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis. Expected to bat lead off for one of the highest scoring teams, Chavis will be in line to rack up some nice fantasy points with this newfound opportunity.
I can’t finish this article without talking about how outstanding Fernando Tatis Jr. was last night. After passing on the Home Run Derby, Tatis showed MLB fans what they will be missing as he hit three home runs in his first three at bats of the game. He is truly an amazing talent and at only 22, he will be around for quite some time. I can’t wait to see what the future brings for this young star.
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today who are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Tony Kemp
- Luke Voit
- Wilmer Flores
- Clint Frazier
- Will Smith
Photo Credit: Denis Poroy/Getty Images
Pictured: Dinelson Lamet