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MLB DFS 4/27/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

Tonight marks only the fifth time in the last year in which a pitcher has been favored by -330 or greater. Though it was Clayton Kershaw who received such high regard in the last four instances, Arrieta is favored as such tonight. Go figure that Kershaw historically produced a Plus/Minus of +4.19 when laying said moneyline. Set to oppose a Brewers offense with a top-four K% vs. RHP this season, it should come as no shock that Arrieta, who additionally includes 11 Pro Trends, is yet again considered the top cash option at his position.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

The Phillies have been scorched by lefties this season, producing a league-high strikeout-rate of 33.8%. With a top-five batted-ball distance allowed tonight, Gonzalez is the primary pivot if not able to spend up for Arrieta in cash games. His minuscule .428 HR/9 also qualifies as top three among pitchers.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Tonight’s winner of the Mike Pelfrey award for “Pitcher to Avoid Entirely” goes to none other than Moscot, whose HR/9 rate sits at a whopping 2.10. Feel free to blindly stack the Mets’ first four hitters — Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Yoenis Cespedes — as each have positive differentials vs. RHP.

Jon Gray, COL

Set to make his second consecutive start at home, I can only assume the Rockies are purposely setting Gray up for failure — like Stringer actually setting the whereabouts to meet with Orlando and an undercover Kima. In other words, Gray’s SO/9 might be the highest in this slate, but the grueling task of pitching at Coors inevitably makes him a liability. The Pirates are also projected to score 5.7 runs, which shouldn’t take too much effort seeing as Gray’s batted-ball distance allowed is higher than any other pitcher.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI 

Adam Wainwright has been absolutely abysmal to start the year, producing a bottom-three WHIP and SO/9 among pitchers tonight. Despite negative differentials throughout, Castillo’s batted-ball distance (236 feet) and exit velocity (94 mph) are still more than capable of exploiting Wainwright at Chase Field.

1B

Justin Smoak, TOR

It took the absence of Chris Colabello for Smoak to even resemble a full-time player, but his batted-ball distance suddenly ranks atop his respective position. With a .273 ISO vs. LHP, his batted-ball air time of 4.14 seconds will likely be underowned (and therefore, should be utilized) in tournaments everywhere.

Anthony Rizzo, CHC

Considered more of a cash play, Rizzo’s fly-ball percentage is actually equivalent to Chris Davis’ among first basemen. His .120 ISO Differential vs. RHP should additionally benefit from the 14 mph wind blowing out to right field at Wrigley.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

The fact Odor has produced double-digit DraftKings points in only one of his last four games makes him an even stronger option in tournaments. His wOBA vs. LHP, after all, quietly ranks in the top eight at his position. Now batting leadoff for the Rangers, he’s a viable option despite his recent performance.

Neil Walker, NYM 

No one at second base is hitting the ball further (as shown by his batted-ball distance of 257 feet) and harder (exit velocity of 96 mph) than Walker. If still looking to be contrarian despite rostering a (assumed) cash stack, paying for New York’s 2-5 hitters (involving Walker) rather than their 1-4 is certainly the way to go.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Not only are Beltre’s otherworldly splits vs. LHP ideal if exploiting C.C. Sabathia, but he remains all too cheap at FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%. With the Rangers projected to score 4.9 runs, Beltre can easily be rostered in a majority of cash lineups.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Logan Forsythe tends to receive all the credit at the top of Tampa’s lineup, but Brad Miller’s batted-ball distance and exit velocity quietly lead all shortstops. He’s also expected to hit second in their batting order for the foreseeable future. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .075/.132, Miller, if anything, is considered an absolute steal at FanDuel (where his salary is only $2,200).

OF

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

I’ll just leave Stanton’s .868 slugging percentage vs. LHP right here…

Michael Conforto, NYM

I’ve discussed the Mets thoroughly already, but Conforto remains arguably my favorite player amongst their stack. Not only does his batted-ball distance qualify as top four among outfielders, but he’s notably raked righties this season, producing a wOBA and ISO Differential of .125/.271. Power hitters tend to have a FB% greater than 44%, and Conforto (48%) is now set to oppose, as mentioned earlier, Moscot.

Corey Dickerson, TB

The Rays are only projected to score four runs, but Dickerson’s FB% trails only Jayson Werth’s among outfielders this season. Set to oppose Chris Tillman, note Dickerson’s slugging percentage of .604.

Weather Watch

Brewers-Cubs need monitoring as rain and thunder are expected beyond first pitch. As for Indians-Twins, all hitters can be rostered with confidence since precipitation is the only form of inclement weather expected.

Good luck!

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

Tonight marks only the fifth time in the last year in which a pitcher has been favored by -330 or greater. Though it was Clayton Kershaw who received such high regard in the last four instances, Arrieta is favored as such tonight. Go figure that Kershaw historically produced a Plus/Minus of +4.19 when laying said moneyline. Set to oppose a Brewers offense with a top-four K% vs. RHP this season, it should come as no shock that Arrieta, who additionally includes 11 Pro Trends, is yet again considered the top cash option at his position.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

The Phillies have been scorched by lefties this season, producing a league-high strikeout-rate of 33.8%. With a top-five batted-ball distance allowed tonight, Gonzalez is the primary pivot if not able to spend up for Arrieta in cash games. His minuscule .428 HR/9 also qualifies as top three among pitchers.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Tonight’s winner of the Mike Pelfrey award for “Pitcher to Avoid Entirely” goes to none other than Moscot, whose HR/9 rate sits at a whopping 2.10. Feel free to blindly stack the Mets’ first four hitters — Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Yoenis Cespedes — as each have positive differentials vs. RHP.

Jon Gray, COL

Set to make his second consecutive start at home, I can only assume the Rockies are purposely setting Gray up for failure — like Stringer actually setting the whereabouts to meet with Orlando and an undercover Kima. In other words, Gray’s SO/9 might be the highest in this slate, but the grueling task of pitching at Coors inevitably makes him a liability. The Pirates are also projected to score 5.7 runs, which shouldn’t take too much effort seeing as Gray’s batted-ball distance allowed is higher than any other pitcher.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI 

Adam Wainwright has been absolutely abysmal to start the year, producing a bottom-three WHIP and SO/9 among pitchers tonight. Despite negative differentials throughout, Castillo’s batted-ball distance (236 feet) and exit velocity (94 mph) are still more than capable of exploiting Wainwright at Chase Field.

1B

Justin Smoak, TOR

It took the absence of Chris Colabello for Smoak to even resemble a full-time player, but his batted-ball distance suddenly ranks atop his respective position. With a .273 ISO vs. LHP, his batted-ball air time of 4.14 seconds will likely be underowned (and therefore, should be utilized) in tournaments everywhere.

Anthony Rizzo, CHC

Considered more of a cash play, Rizzo’s fly-ball percentage is actually equivalent to Chris Davis’ among first basemen. His .120 ISO Differential vs. RHP should additionally benefit from the 14 mph wind blowing out to right field at Wrigley.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

The fact Odor has produced double-digit DraftKings points in only one of his last four games makes him an even stronger option in tournaments. His wOBA vs. LHP, after all, quietly ranks in the top eight at his position. Now batting leadoff for the Rangers, he’s a viable option despite his recent performance.

Neil Walker, NYM 

No one at second base is hitting the ball further (as shown by his batted-ball distance of 257 feet) and harder (exit velocity of 96 mph) than Walker. If still looking to be contrarian despite rostering a (assumed) cash stack, paying for New York’s 2-5 hitters (involving Walker) rather than their 1-4 is certainly the way to go.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Not only are Beltre’s otherworldly splits vs. LHP ideal if exploiting C.C. Sabathia, but he remains all too cheap at FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%. With the Rangers projected to score 4.9 runs, Beltre can easily be rostered in a majority of cash lineups.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Logan Forsythe tends to receive all the credit at the top of Tampa’s lineup, but Brad Miller’s batted-ball distance and exit velocity quietly lead all shortstops. He’s also expected to hit second in their batting order for the foreseeable future. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .075/.132, Miller, if anything, is considered an absolute steal at FanDuel (where his salary is only $2,200).

OF

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

I’ll just leave Stanton’s .868 slugging percentage vs. LHP right here…

Michael Conforto, NYM

I’ve discussed the Mets thoroughly already, but Conforto remains arguably my favorite player amongst their stack. Not only does his batted-ball distance qualify as top four among outfielders, but he’s notably raked righties this season, producing a wOBA and ISO Differential of .125/.271. Power hitters tend to have a FB% greater than 44%, and Conforto (48%) is now set to oppose, as mentioned earlier, Moscot.

Corey Dickerson, TB

The Rays are only projected to score four runs, but Dickerson’s FB% trails only Jayson Werth’s among outfielders this season. Set to oppose Chris Tillman, note Dickerson’s slugging percentage of .604.

Weather Watch

Brewers-Cubs need monitoring as rain and thunder are expected beyond first pitch. As for Indians-Twins, all hitters can be rostered with confidence since precipitation is the only form of inclement weather expected.

Good luck!