The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a split slate: There are 10 games in the 1:05 pm ET early slate, and five games in the 7:15 pm ET main slate.
Pitching
Studs
There are six pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, and among them only Dallas Kuechel pitches in the late slate:
It should be noted that paying up for pitching is going to be significantly more enticing on FanDuel today: All six of the above pitchers have Bargain Ratings of at least 68 percent, and Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Danny Salazar all have Bargain Ratings of at least 82 percent.
As far as Vegas data goes, Strasburg really stands out. Unfortunately, he also stands out with the early slate’s worst weather situation, as the Padres-Nationals game currently has a 56 percent chance of precipitation. If the weather situation improves, then Strasburg will be a highly desirable option as he’s currently the only pitcher with moneyline odds greater than -160 (he’s at -230), and his opponent implied total of 3.2 runs is significantly lower than that of every other pitcher on the slate:
Per our Trends tool, his Vegas data puts him in a pretty impressive cohort in terms of historical fantasy production:
Strasburg presently leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.1 and is facing a projected Padres lineup that has the worst 12-month wOBA on the slate at .259. Given everything that he has going for him, its going to be hard to avoid Strasburg in cash games if his weather situation clears. If it doesn’t, he still probably warrants some limited exposure in guaranteed prize pools.
Kuechel left his last game early, but prior to that he had been posting some remarkable fantasy numbers:
He’s pitched only once in his last 15 days, but his Statcast data in that start was absolutely incredible: A 102-foot average batted ball distance, 74 mph exit velocity, 93 percent ground ball rate, and 13 percent hard hit rate. Just to give you an example of how absurd those numbers are, Kuechel’s 12-month batted ball distance of 182 feet is the second-best mark on the slate — and his 15-day average is 80 feet lower. Obviously this is a small sample based on only five innings, but it serves as an example of how Kuechel can dominate without posting massive K totals. His current K Prediction of 6.4 is only third on the five-game main slate, but in his first nine starts he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.81 on FanDuel without being a K machine. He still has upside.
Values
On the main slate, Brandon McCarthy leads the way with a K Prediction of 7.2. He has a tough matchup against the Cubs, although they have been somewhat susceptible to right handed pitchers this season: Their wOBA split of .316 ranks only 20th in the league. Over his last two starts he also has the best Statcast data this side of Kuechel with a distance differential of -37 feet. Pitchers with comparable differentials have historically provided value on DraftKings:
McCarthy also leads the slate with a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of 84, implying that his pitching has recently been better than his fantasy production. His Bargain Rating of 81 percent is the highest among all pitchers on DraftKings priced above $7,000. He’ll likely have high ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Here’s what JC Ramirez has done so far this season:
His strikeout production has dipped over his last four starts, but this looks like a potential bounceback spot. The projected Marlins lineup has struck out in 29.4 percent of its at-bats against righties over the past 12 months, which is the highest mark on the slate, and he trails only the high-priced studs, McCarthy, and John Lackey with his K Prediction of 6.6. He also has some strong Statcast data over his past two starts, posting an average batted ball distance of 190 feet and a ground ball rate of 57 percent.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He’s a slight underdog against a Blue Jays team currently implied for 4.4 runs, but his K Prediction of 8.0 is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Danny Salazar: He has the highest past-year K/9 at 11.79 and the second-lowest opponent implied total at 3.8 runs. The Royals also have the second-worst wOBA this season against right-handed pitchers at .291.
Buck Farmer: He’s dirt cheap at only $4,400 on DraftKings and a -139 favorite with an opponent implied total of only 3.9 runs. Comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.89 on DraftKings and have been owned at a sub-10 percent rate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are away from Chase Field and implied for only the fourth-most runs on the early slate at 4.6, so it’s somewhat surprising to see them rates so highly. What they do have going for them is strong recent Statcast data, as all of the stacked batters except David Peralta have positive distance and hard hit differentials:
Paul Goldschmidt in particular has destroyed the baseball lately, and batters with comparable recent Statcast data have posted a Plus/Minus of +2.95 on DraftKings. Brewers righty Chase Anderson has been vulnerable over his last two starts, allowing an average batted ball distance of 250 feet.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack unsurprisingly belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rockies are currently implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs, and batters at Coors Field with comparable implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.36 on FanDuel. Like the Diamondbacks, most of the Rockies have positive distance differentials, which is especially impressive given that they just finished three straight series away from Coors, where the altitude should only help them.
Of course, the Coors game is the only one in the main slate with a high chance of precipitation (currently 50 percent). Be sure to monitor the weather situation at Coors as lineup lock approaches.
Batters
On the other side of the Coors matchup, Dexter Fowler deserves some consideration as the leadoff hitter for the Cardinals. Leadoff hitters have a historical DraftKings Plus/Minus of +2.10 at Coors, and Fowler is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits facing a left-handed pitcher. He also has some relatively impressive Statcast data over his last 10 games with a distance and hard hit differentials of +10 feet and +17 percentage points.
Freddy Galvis has recently been elevated to the No. 2 spot for the Phillies, but his price tag doesn’t reflect his enhanced opportunity. The Phillies are implied for 5.2 runs, and batters hitting in the top third of the order with comparable salaries and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.33 on FanDuel. Reds righty Bronson Arroyo has allowed over 2.9 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months and has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet over his last two starts.
Virtually no batter has offered more upside over his last 10 games than JD Martinez:
He’s facing a left-handed pitcher, and although Martinez has been a bit of a reverse splits hitter throughout his career he still has roughly the same Plus/Minus and Upside Rating regardless of pitcher handedness. His recent Statcast data is as impressive as you’d expect for someone with Martinez’s recent production: A 264-foot average batted ball distance, 98 mph exit velocity, and 64 percent hard hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
