The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings today:
- Justin Verlander (R) $13,400, HOU vs. TEX – A. Jurado
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,900, NYM @ PIT – T. Williams
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,700, ARI @ SD – T. Ross
- Mike Clevinger (R) $10,300, CLE @ DET – B. Hardy
Verlander looks like the clear top option on today’s slate. He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 2.7 runs and is one of the largest favorites we’ve seen all season at -360 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.82 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He combines his elite Vegas numbers with big strikeout upside vs. the Rangers. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.2% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, resulting in a slate-high K Prediction of 8.7.
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The only slight concern with Verlander is his subpar recent Statcast data, but that has largely been unimportant for him over the course of the season. He has a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score of -75, but Verlander has averaged a Plus/Minus of +14.25 on FanDuel with a mark of -75 or worse in 11 starts in 2018. His strikeout numbers seem to make his batted-ball profile almost a non-factor, so it should be particularly unimportant against a team that strikes out as much as the Rangers.
Jacob deGrom continues to absolutely dominate for a subpar Mets team. He’s on pace to win fewer than 10 games but has pitched to a sparkling 1.71 ERA. He was particularly impressive in his last start, racking up 10 strikeouts over eight innings and limiting the Padres to a hard-hit rate of just 21%.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Pirates, whose projected lineup has posted a .295 wOBA over the past 12 months. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs, which is the third-lowest mark on today’s slate. deGrom also has a K Prediction of 7.6, which trails only Verlander’s. He’ll likely have lower ownership than usual given the presence of Verlander, which makes deGrom appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Corbin has arguably the best matchup among the stud pitchers on today’s slate. He’s taking on the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .289 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. Both are among the lowest splits-adjusted marks on the slate. Corbin’s opponent’s implied team total of 3.4 runs ranks second on the slate, and his K Prediction of 7.6 is tied with deGrom’s for second as well.
Corbin has also been outstanding from a Statcast perspective recently. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 179 feet, which represents a differential of -20 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 on DraftKings.
Clevinger is the only stud option available on the early slate, which should make him sufficiently popular. He’s a massive -204 favorite vs. the Detroit Tigers, who own the fifth-lowest scoring offense in 2018. The Tigers have also been awful against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking dead last in wRC+ and second-to-last in wOBA. Even on a small slate, it’s tough to consider going against him.
Values
Gio Gonzalez has been awful over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -7.90 on DraftKings and a Consistency Rating of just 20%, but he could be in a nice bounce-back spot today vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has really struggled against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a wOBA of just .270 and a strikeout rate of 27.9%, and they’re implied for only 3.6 runs on today’s slate. Gonzalez dominated the Marlins in six starts in 2016 and 2017, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.97 and a Consistency Rating of 100% on DraftKings, but he did stumble in his first meeting against them in 2018.
Arguably no pitcher on today’s slate is in better recent form than Jhoulys Chacin. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 173 feet, thanks in part to an elite ground-ball rate of 62%. He also generated nine strikeouts in his last game, which was a season high.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has limped to a .283 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. Chacin also has the added benefit of facing the Giants in San Francisco, which rewards him with a Park Factor of 94.
Fastballs
Vincent Velasquez: He possesses arguably more upside than any pitcher on the afternoon slate. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.41 over the past 12 months, and the Reds struck out 12 times in six innings yesterday against Nick Pivetta. The only real downside with Velasquez is that he’s pitching in Cincinnati, which has historically favored hitters.
Rick Porcello: He’s a -195 favorite vs. the Minnesota Twins and ranks fourth on today’s slate with five Pro Trends on DraftKings. He could be a potential value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 72%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Jose Ramirez (S)
- Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- Brandon Guyer (R)
Total Salary: $23,400
The Indians lead the early slate in both implied team total (5.2 runs) and Team Value Rating on DraftKings (72), so it’s not surprising to see them grade out as the top stack. They’re taking on Tigers left-hander Blaine Hardy, and the Indians have posted the third-highest wOBA as a team this season.
Arguably no hitter on today’s slate enters in better recent form than Lindor. He went yard twice in yesterday’s contest and has exceeded his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s also dominated lefties over the past 12 months, posting a .404 wOBA and .231 ISO.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Ian Desmond (R)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $16,800
The Rockies are playing at Coors and lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.4 runs. They’re taking on A’s left-hander Brett Anderson, who has pitched to an abysmal 1.61 WHIP over the past 12 months. He’s been particularly poor over his past two starts as well, allowing an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 46%. That could spell trouble at Coors Field.
The stacked batters for the Rockies all look like nice values on FanDuel, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 86%. Desmond, Arenado and Story have all historically destroyed lefties as well, with each owning a wOBA of at least .373 and an ISO of at least .255 against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
The Blue Jays exploded for 10 runs yesterday and appear to be in another good spot on today’s slate. They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who has arguably been the worst pitcher in baseball this season. Curtis Granderson is projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and enters today’s contest in good recent form, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Kole Calhoun is another batter in elite recent form. He’s crushed the ball over his past nine games, posting an average distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 58%, all of which represent sizable increases compared to his 12-month averages. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for the Angels and has projected ownership of just 2% to 4% on FanDuel.
The Rockies will likely dominate ownership among the high-priced players on today’s slate, which makes sense considering that they own the four highest ceiling projections in our MLB models. That said, it could create a nice opportunity to buy low on other studs such as Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. Both batters enter today’s game in strong recent Statcast form and obviously have massive potential every time they enter the batter’s box.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
