The PGA TOUR has one more stop in the Midwest before heading across the pond for a few weeks, and this week’s event at the John Deere Classic should continue last week’s theme of low-scoring events loaded with plenty of drama. Critical FedExCup points are on the line with the playoffs just around the corner, and while the course at TPC Deere Run yields low scores, it’s known as a very fair and balanced track.
This week’s event has been held in the Quad Cities on the Illinois-Iowa border since 1971 and found its home at TPC Deere Run in 2000. For more details on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats to track, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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J.T. Poston $10,100
Poston is a solid pivot play off of Ben Griffin ($10,400), who is clearly the class of the field and a great play as well. Whether you pair him with Poston or go with Poston as a Griffin alternative, Poston has a lot of upside to offer and is being a little overlooked with an ownership projection under 15%, while Griffin’s is over 30%.
Poston has the third-highest Perfect% in the field but only the tenth-highest ownership, giving him the highest SimLeverage in the field.
The steady 32-year-old has had a solid season with 17 made cuts in his 19 events, including six top-25 finishes. He only has one top-10 finish, which was a T5 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He missed the cut at the Memorial but bounced back with a T33 at the U.S. Open and a T45 at the Travelers Championship. Even though he hasn’t been at the very top of the leaderboard very often, he’s reliably put up good numbers, exceeding salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 16 tournaments.
A return to TPC Deere Run could be exactly what he needs to get his name back near the top of the leaderboard. He won this event in 2022 and followed that up with a T6 and a T30 the last two years. He currently has a streak of 13 straight sub-70s at TPC Deere Run.
As such a course expert and with his steady form, Poston is a great pivot play this week.
Chris Gotterup $9,300
Without any ultra-high salaries this week to drive down the average salary remaining after you pick your star or stars, ownership is saturating in the $9,000s. Only two players in the $9,000s have positive SimLeverage and most have ownership projections nearing 20%. Gotterup’s ownership projection is under 15%, and he brings the highest SimLeverage of the bunch.
The 25-year-old got his first PGA TOUR win at the Myrtle Beach Classic last year but had an uneven start to 2025 with eight missed cuts and four top-25 finishes in his first 13 events. His boom-or-bust results have stabilized recently and his ceiling remains high. He has seven top-26 finishes in his last eight events, with the one exception being a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open.
Gotterup finished T4 at this event in his debut in 2022 behind Poston’s victory, but he missed the cut last year in his return to the event.
Over the last 30 rounds, Gotterup leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee while ranking second in Total Strokes Gained. His ball striking has been excellent, but a cold putter has held him back.
If he can flip his flat stick and even just be average on the greens, he could contend this week. His high finish here a few years ago shows he had the ability to go low, and his recent results seem to indicate he’s starting to find a good groove.
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