After a captivating week at Riviera, The PGA TOUR heads to PGA National to begin its Florida swing and play the Honda Classic. The event will be a major challenge for golfers, as PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR.
PGA National is a 7,125-yard par 70 and features Bermudagrass greens. Originally a Tom Fazio design, it was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus. The course features the infamous “Bear Trap,” on holes 15-17, three of the toughest holes on TOUR. Wind tends to play a factor, which makes the scoring even more challenging.
The field is a bit of a letdown, as it has been much stronger in other years. However, there are still some big names in the field, including Brooks Koepka, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler and Shane Lowry.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has been far and away the biggest indicator of the winner at PGA National. Hitting the target is especially important with all of the water at the course.
- High-end target: Daniel Berger — $10,400 (1st SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox — $8,100 (2nd SG: Approach)
- Value target: Luke Donald — $6,400 (4th SG: Approach)
Good Drives Gained
Good drives will be very important this week.
Golfers who patiently make their way around the course and stay disciplined will be rewarded. Spraying it off of the tee will be a major issue around PGA National, and the strokes will add up in a hurry.
- High-end target: Daniel Berger — $10,400 (3rd Good Drives Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox — $8,100 (1st Good Drives Gained)
- Value target: Hayden Buckley — $6,600 (15th Good Drives Gained)
Strokes Gained: Par 4
Par 4 scoring is especially important at PGA National with only two par 5s on the course. Golfers will need to find a way to score on the par 4s if they want to win the tournament.
Holes 1, 4, 8 and 13 are the par 4s that generate the most birdies.
- High-end target: Sungjae Im — $11,000 (5th SG: Par 4)
- Mid-range target: Taylor Moore — $7,900 (10th SG: Par 4)
- Value target: Satoshi Kodaira — $6,600 (16th SG: Par 4)
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Historically, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking has been much more indicative of success at PGA National than Strokes Gained: Short Game. The difficult track rewards a solid tee-to-green game, which is the key to avoiding trouble.
The winning score will likely stay in the single digits, so an extremely hot putter isn’t all that predictive.
- High-end target: Daniel Berger — $10,400 (1st SG: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox — $8,100 (2nd SG: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Hayden Buckley — $6,600 (10th SG: Ball Striking)
Par 3: 150-200
The four par 3s at PGA National all fall between 150 and 200 yards and all are in the top half of the most difficult holes on the course. Two of the three holes in the “Bear Trap” (15 and 17) are difficult par 3s.
Golfers must avoid all of the water on those holes in the finishing stretch if they want to win The Honda Classic.
- High-end target: Shane Lowry — $9,400 (16th Par 3: 150-200)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox — $8,100 (3rd Par 3: 150-200)
- Value target: Matthew NeSmith — $6,900 (1st Par 3: 150-200)
