The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Eli Manning @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent on DraftKings and FanDuel
Eli Manning is coming off of a three-touchdown performance against an Eagles unit ranked 14th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and allowing 19.13 DraftKings points per game (PPG) to opposing quarterbacks in 2017. This week he goes on the road to face a Buccaneers team currently ranked 29th in pass DVOA that allowed 369 yards, three touchdowns, and a 75 percent completion rate to Case Keenum in Week 3. The Bucs have allowed a 63 percent success rate to wide receivers (the highest mark in the NFL), and the Giants have thrown the ball on 73 percent of their snaps (also the highest in the NFL).
While the issues with the Giants offensive line are known, the Eagles did not get one sack in Week 3, partially because Eli released the ball at an average of 1.86 seconds, completing 34 of 45 attempts on short and intermediate routes. The Bucs enter Sunday’s tilt with one sack and the league’s lowest adjusted sack rate in 2017 at 1.3 percent. Help may be hard to find, as the Bucs are banged up on the defensive side: Six players left the field in Week 3 with injury concerns, and starting linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David have been ruled out.
Eli may enjoy reasonable time in the pocket against a porous pass defense. Manning has high Opponent Plus/Minus marks in our Models at +8.6 DraftKings and +5.2 FanDuel. For more on Manning, see our Week 4 quarterback breakdown.
RB: Andre Ellington vs. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent on DraftKings and FanDuel
The absence of David Johnson has left the Cardinals backfield a mess, but in Week 3 Andre Ellington emerged and led all Cardinals running backs with a 60 percent snap share, 13 opportunities, and 81 total yards. Chris Johnson earned more touches (12 to 10), but Ellington was far more efficient, earning 8.1 yards per touch to Johnson’s 1.5. Bruce Arians’ team currently ranks third in pass/run ratio, throwing the ball on 71 percent of plays, and may lean on the pass to exploit a 49ers defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA this season. Ellington would seemingly benefit from a pass-heavy approach, as he was second in target share to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 3. Ellington’s targets carry more value in the full point-per-reception scoring format on DraftKings, where he is only $3800. It’s not a perfect situation in Arizona, but Ellington has a good chance to lead this backfield in opportunities, and the Cardinals are -6.5 home favorites.
Wide Receiver: Rishard Matthews @ Houston Texans
Projected Ownership: 5-8 percent DraftKings, 0-1 percent FanDuel
Note: On Friday morning, Matthews’ projected ownership was elevated from 2-4 percent on DraftKings to 5-8. Be sure to track changes to our projections throughout the weekend. It’s worth noting that in Week 3 Matthews was owned at under five percent at a comparable salary.
In 2016 Rishard Matthews led his team with 105 targets, 945 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. In 2017 Matthews leads all Tennessee pass catchers with a 24 percent target share, eight targets per game and 201 receiving yards. He travels to Houston this week to face a Texans team he torched for 11 receptions, 196 yards, and a touchdown across two matchups in 2016. Despite being the clear No. 1 wide receiver for an ascending quarterback in Mariota, Matthews is getting little hype. Perhaps Matthews’ projected ownership this week is depressed because of Houston’s fifth-ranked pass defense last year. In 2017, however, the departure of A.J. Bouye and injury to Kevin Johnson have dropped the defense to 19th in pass DVOA. At Foxborough in Week 3, the Texans yielded four touchdowns to Patriots wide receivers. While it’s not fair to compare Marcus Mariota to Tom Brady, it’s hard to ignore Matthews’ target share, matchup, and ownership projection and history. For more on Matthews, see the Week 4 wide receiver breakdown.
Tight End: Cameron Brate vs. New York Giants
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
It’s easy to forget that Cameron Brate finished 2016 as the No. 9 fantasy tight end in PPR scoring. Last year he earned 25 percent of the Bucs’ red-zone targets and tied Hunter Henry for a position-leading eight touchdowns. The arrival of O.J. Howard in Tampa Bay put a damper on Brate’s 2017 prospects, but in Week 3 Brate caught all four of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown while Howard saw only one target. His home matchup with the Giants is one of the best on the slate. Opposing tight ends have averaged more than seven receptions, 55 yards, and a touchdown against the Giants this year, good for 18.9 DraftKings and 14.7 FanDuel PPG.
D/ST: Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings, 0-1 percent Fanduel
The home favorite Cowboys are one of the main slate’s cheapest defenses at $2500 on DraftKings and $4500 on FanDuel. The Dallas secondary has been gashed by wide receivers in back-to-back weeks, but the pass rush got to Carson Palmer for six sacks on Monday night, improving their adjusted sack rate to the league’s seventh-best mark at 8.7 percent. For more on the Cowboys, see the Week 4 defense/kicker breakdown.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
