This piece focuses on five golfers projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock to track ownership rates across all buy-in levels.
Five Under Five
One of Two Chads and Double L
To find potentially low-owned yet good golfers in our Models, leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who are less than $7,000 could have low ownership: Check out these results from our Trends tool for golfers with salaries under $7,000 and LT Adj Rd Scores between 69.5 and 70.5:
As you can see, the golfers who met the criteria for this trend have been owned at an average of under three percent (with a positive Plus/Minus).
This week, several golfers with great LT Adj Rd Scores and low salaries are available: Stewart Cink (who looks like the value chalk play this week), Chad Campbell, and Luke List. Both Campbell and List are tied for 15th in the field with their 69.8 LT Adj Rd Scores.
Campbell has the seventh-best LT Scrambling percentage (61.7) in the field, and he has made the cut here at the Old White TPC in two of three trips. He has two top-15 finishes in his last four events.
Unlike Campbell, List is a bomber: His 309.8-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) ranks seventh in this field, and he made the cut here in his only appearance (2013). List has missed four of his last five cuts, but he finished 17th at the St. Jude Classic. For more on List see this week’s PGA Breakdown.
Downtown
Scott Brown is tied for 38th in the field with his respectable 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score, but his 69.9 Recent Adj Rd Score speaks to his current form: He has made three of four cuts and finished 12th at THE DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. Brown has shaky history at this event — he’s made only one cut in four starts — but he has a tendency to show up in weaker field events, finishing 17th and scoring 89.5 DraftKings points at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this season.
Outside of DFS, Brown currently has +8,000 moneyline odds in the prop market to finish as the first-round leader. Brown shot an opening-round 64 his last time out, and he’s as likely to lead the first round as any of the other golfers with similar moneyline odds.
A Beautiful Moustache
As discussed in this week’s Course Breakdown, Johnson Wagner has excellent course history at the Old White TPC: His 69.7 Course Adj Rd Score ranks sixth among golfers with at least three starts at this track. While Wagner’s 70.5 LT Adj Rd Score is nothing to write home about, he does arrive at the Greenbrier in excellent form: He has made two straight cuts and had a season-high fifth-place finish last week at the Quicken Loans National.
Shoot the Three!
Trey Mullinax has been playing excellent golf lately: He is tied for 13th in this week’s field with his 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score. He has made three of four cuts with top-10 and top-20 finishes. Mullinax leads the field with his robust 71.5 percent Recent Greens in Regulation percentage, and he is second with his 322.8-yard Recent DD. Importantly, Mullinax’s 13.4 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament ranks eighth. Humble brag: When Hump last included Trey in this piece, he scored 86.0 DraftKings points at 0.72 percent average ownership.
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Good luck, and be sure to do your own PGA research with the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
