The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Dallas Mavericks – $10,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Curry’s Usage Rate has sat at 30% or better in his last three games, and he’s averaging over eight assists per game in that span. Given his usual scoring output, Curry should be a sturdy option on Tuesday’s large slate, boasting one of the highest ceiling projections on both sites.
Top Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Alexander-Walker saw 34 minutes last time out in a win over the Pacers, coming up with 30 fantasy points in the process. He’s the clear sixth man on this team, and without Brandon Ingram, his role only grows more. We have him projected for 29 minutes against a Sixers team missing several key wing defenders, making him a great value play here worth around 7X.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Doncic is one of the hottest players on the planet, soaring over his projected output in three of the last four games and hitting the 67-point barrier in all of them. With that, a ceiling of just over 70 points seems criminal, but that’s what our model has him at. It still sets him as the highest-upside point guard on both sites and the highest-upside shooting guard on FanDuel.
Top Value: Furkan Korkmaz vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Trent enters this one with a questionable tag after sitting out against the Pelicans, but should he play, he’ll be in a position to provide value on this slate. Trent had seen at least 31 minutes in three straight prior to his injury, putting together two 30+ fantasy point games. His +0.29 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel offers some promise, and our projections have him as a solid 5X player.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
In case you’ve been living under a rock, James has been downright dominant as a small-ball five for the Lakers, at least in the scoring department. Though he’s underperformed his projections in six of the last seven, he’s still seeing 37+ minutes on most nights with a mammoth Usage Rate that’s been as high as 42.2%.
The Nets will either be without Nic Claxton or have him on what’s presumably a limited basis. James leads all small forwards in projected ceiling on Tuesday.
Top Value: Dorian Finney-Smith vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The matchup here could be a little better, but it’s hard not to love Finney-Smith with a projection of 34 minutes. He’s been on the floor for just about that number on average in the last four games and, on two occasions, has sprung for over 30 fantasy points. He projects out as a roughly-6X play according to our metrics, and 5X should be well within reach.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Tatum’s ceiling is firmly over 60 fantasy points on this slate, which makes him the top option at power forward. Sacramento’s defense remains poor, ranking second to last in defensive efficiency over the last two weeks, and its wings have been particularly week on that end. Tatum is coming off a huge 50-point night which pushed him near 80 fantasy points and should be a popular play, but it’s only because he’s got the most potential at this position.
Top Value: PJ Washington vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Washington checks in as a near-6X option at power forward on what’s a tough slate for value at this position. With Jalen McDaniels out and Gordon Hayward potentially missing as well, Washington should continue to enjoy the roughly 28+ minutes he’s seen in the past two games, and with performances around 30 fantasy points in both, this is an easy call.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Detroit Pistons – $12,500 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
In terms of projected ceiling on this slate, there’s Jokic, and then there’s everyone else. While that’s not a surprising sentence to hear, it should be noted this is a particularly tasty matchup with the league’s worst defense at the moment and one still missing two key bigs in Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk. Jokic checks in with a +0.83 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Top Value: Guillermo Hernangomez vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,700 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The pricetag at FanDuel makes Hernangomez an elite value play at near a 9X projection, but he’s still the clear-cut option if you’re looking to save money at center. We project him for 25 minutes in the wake of news that Jonas Valanciunas will be rested on the second night of a back-to-back, and considering he hasn’t seen the floor since early January, we get a very nice price on him.
