The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Charlie Morton ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-312) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Braves are huge favorites at home Sunday against the Rockies. Charlie Morton has been a bit unlucky in the win column this season with his 5-6 record on the team with the best record in the National League.
He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the season. His .335 xwOBA allowed is the highest for Morton since at least 2015. Despite a few short outings, Morton has at least eight strikeouts in four of his last six starts.
The Rockies have lost four straight games and have not eclipsed three runs scored during that span. Morton is the highest-rated pitcher on the slate Sunday, although he also carries the highest salary.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Ronel Blanco ($5,500) Houston Astros (-150) vs. Cincinnati Reds
With only two career starts, Ronel Blanco is an interesting tournament play Sunday at the low end of the salary chart. Blanco made his MLB debut last season as a reliever and logged nine appearances this season in relief before making two straight rotational starts.
In 23.1 career innings, Blanco is 1-0 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. In his two starts, he lasted 5.1 and 6.0 innings, giving up two earned runs with five strikeouts in each outing. He has a combined +18.84 Plus/Minus in those two starts.
Blanco certainly does not have a meteoric ceiling, but at $5,500 he is a useful bargain play. The Reds are near the bottom of the league in home runs on the season.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Louie Varland ($8,700) Minnesota Twins (-225) vs. Detroit Tigers
In his first full big-league season, Louie Varland is one of the reasons the Twins continue to lead the American League Central. He is 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
If Varland can cut down on allowing the home-run ball, his potential is high for fantasy owners. He has allowed 12 home runs on the season in just nine starts. The model gives him the second-highest ceiling on the slate.
He will need to bounce back after allowing 11 earned runs over his last two games. The Tigers are a great pitching matchup with the second-lowest team batting average in the league. Varland is an interesting dart throw for tournament lineups Sunday.
You can also take advantage of Varland’s matchup with his strikeouts props on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
At 45-26, the Braves sit atop the National League standings on the back of their potent offense led by superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., who is batting .326/.401/.565 on the year. He leads the National League in runs and stolen bases in addition to his 15 home runs.
In the five-hole, Matt Olson has been clearing the base paths regularly with elevated power numbers this season. He’s second in the National League with 20 homers, including two in his last three games.
Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy finish off this powerful stack. Albies has stood out in June, batting .309/.391/.618 with five home runs and 12 RBIs already in the month.
The Braves have the highest implied total on the slate against Rockies starter Chase Anderson, who is making his first start of the season. Anderson has a career 4.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
George Springer OF ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (Jon Gray)
In his third season with the Blue Jays, George Springer is having another solid season at the plate. He is batting .255/.322/.405 on the year with 10 home runs and 27 RBIs.
Springer adds some fantasy value on the basepaths with 10 stolen bags in 2023. He has been a consistent producer in June, with eight games with double-digit DraftKings points in 16 games. The ceiling may be limited, but his regular 10-16 fantasy points are certainly useful in lineups.
The Blue Jays face Jon Gray of the Rangers Sunday. Gray is 6-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 12 starts. Springer may be an interesting contrarian play with the difficult matchup.
Brandon Nimmo OF ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Brandon Nimmo has an average +3.11 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games for the Mets. In that span, he has three home runs and three multi-hit games. Despite the success, his DraftKings salary has continued to drop from $4,600 on May 31.
On the season, Nimmo is hitting .285/.380/.437 with seven home runs and 30 RBI. He has the highest xSLG (.440) and hard hit % (48.5) of his career.
The Mets take on youngster Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. At 23 years old, Liberatore is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the year. This is a good spot for Nimmo to continue his June hot streak.
Luis Arraez 2B ($4,600 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
What a season for Luis Arraez thus far in 2023. He leads all hitters with a .388 average and .440 OBP, and it’s not close. Despite a lack of power, all those singles and doubles have provided some high-end fantasy performances.
With 15 strikeouts in 277 plate appearances this season, Arraez has one of the lowest strikeout rates among all hitters. Putting the ball in play has turned in two games with 30+ DraftKings points in June already to go along with five other double-digit totals.
Arraez will see Washington lefty Patrick Corbin on the bump Sunday. Corbin is 4-7 with a 4.81 ERA. He has allowed at least two earned runs in all 14 starts this season.
