The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the massive Week 17 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Keep an eye on injury and COVID-19 news throughout the weekend.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Atlanta Falcons – $8,700 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills continue to fight for playoff seeding, and this week look to have a prime matchup against an Atlanta Falcons defense ranked 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). A dual-threat option, Allen can easily reach a ceiling outcome, given his ability to air the ball down the field, as part of a pass-first 62%/38% pass-to-run play-calling scheme (per RotoViz), and his ability in the rushing game, where he handles a 26% share of rushes. Led by Stefon Diggs, Allen also benefits from a high-powered receiving corps that will likely score at will. Currently 14.5-point favorites, this game has blowout potential, mostly in part of Allen reaching an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Trey Lance vs. Houston Texans – $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
With Jimmy Garoppolo likely to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Houston Texans because of a thumb injury, rookie quarterback Trey Lance projects for the top value among the position this week. A mobile quarterback, Lance should have an easy time moving the ball against a Texans defense ranked 28th in pass DVOA and should also benefit from a full receiving corps of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, ultimately reaching fantasy relevance easier. Given the deep discount on DraftKings, rostering Lance allows for unique stacking configurations in the 49ers receiving corps while spending up for higher-priced options in higher-profile matchups.
Top Rostered: Dak Prescott vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
The Week 17 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals has the highest total on the slate, currently at 51.5-points. Dak Prescott looks to be a popular choice this week for rosters, currently projected for 15.6% ownership. Dallas is currently the top-graded offense (According to PFF), mostly in part because of their dynamic receiving corps in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. Further, Dak benefits from a strong 0.37 correlation to his WR1, dating back to last season. Despite facing a tough Arizona Cardinals defense, ranked fifth in DVOA, expect Prescott to rely on a pass-heavy play-calling scheme, with the Cowboys preferring a 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling scheme and up-tempo approach, averaging 24.9 seconds per snap.
Looking at the Trends tool, in matchups with a 51.5-point total or higher, Prescott averages 24.32 actual DraftKings points and a +3.36 Plus/Minus rating.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor has had a dominant season. Taylor handles 65% of the Colts’ backfield workload, averaging 5.47 yards per carry. Averaging close to 20 touches per game, the volume exists for Taylor, and the all-purpose back is a viable option in the passing game, averaging three targets per game.
Facing a weak Raiders defense ranked 24th in DVOA sets up a prime matchup for Taylor to potentially reach an 85th-percentile outcome, especially given his opportunity in the red zone. This season Taylor leads all running backs with 82 red zone attempts (Per AddMoreFunds).
Top Value: Devin Singletary vs. Atlanta Falcons – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary has re-established himself as the lead back in the multi-faceted backfield. Since Week 11, Singletary has seen his workload increase, seeing 10 or more rushing attempts in four of the previous five games. With a discounted price tag at $5,400 on DraftKings, facing an Atlanta Falcons defense that looks to have a tough time defending the run creates a scenario for Singletary to easily reach fantasy relevance. In a matchup with blowout potential, the Bills may opt to use Singletary more in a clock-killing situation, increasing his upside and opportunity.
Top Rostered: David Montgomery vs. New York Giants – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Currently projected for 30.7% ownership, Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery projects for the most popular choice at running back this week. Montgomery gets a prime matchup against a New York Giants defense ranked 27th in rush DVOA. As the lead back in for the Bears, Montgomery sees 62% of the workload in the backfield, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and has had no less than 10 rushing attempts per game. Montgomery also benefits from his work in the passing game, averaging 4.2 targets per game and should be considered one of the top plays on the slate.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Baltimore Ravens – $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
Week in and week out, if Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is on the main slate, he has the potential for a ceiling outcome, and this week is no different. Kupp and the Rams have a prime matchup, facing a Baltimore Ravens defense ranked 30th in pass DVOA. The primary target for quarterback Matthew Stafford, Kupp averages 11.8 targets per game and 13.1 yards per reception. Given the established rapport with Stafford and prime matchup, even with a lofty price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel, Kupp should be faded at your own risk.
Top Value: Antonio Brown vs. New York Jets – $6,100 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
With a decimated Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiving corps, wide receiver Antonio Brown looks to be the main target for quarterback Tom Brady and projects as the top value at the wide receiver position. In a Week 16 32-6 win over the Carolina Panthers, Brown saw 15 targets, averaging 10.1 yards per reception. This week, the Buccaneers have an ideal matchup, facing a New York Jets defense ranked last in DVOA. With Tom Brady’s tendency to throw the ball, using a league-high 66%/33% pass-to-run play calling ratio, expect plenty of looks to go toward Brown, allowing him to reach fantasy relevance easily.
Note: Brown injured his ankle in practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday.
Top Rostered: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Antonio Brown projects for the highest ownership on the slate, however at 21.3% ownership, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown looks to be another popular choice for rosters this week. Responsible for 19% of the Lions’ target share. St. Brown has seen an uptick in targets late in the season. Since Week 12, he has seen 11 or more targets in each game, averaging 9.3 yards per reception in that period. While the Lions have struggled at times offensively, this week, they will face a Seattle Seahawks defense that is ranked 24th in pass DVOA, which will likely signal continued production for the rookie wide receiver.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Only a few players in the NFL can be considered matchup proof, and Travis Kelce is one of them. Currently questionable after missing Week 16 due to the league’s COVID-19 protocols, Kelce is a dominant presence in the high-powered Chiefs offense, responsible for 22% of the target share from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals defense is an ideal matchup for the Chiefs’ pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run ratio, ranking 22nd in pass DVOA. Projected for the highest ceiling among the tight end position, Kelce can easily reach an 85th-percentile outcome, mainly due to his work in the red zone, targeted 12 times this season.
Top Value: CJ Uzomah vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Cincinnati Bengals tight end CJ Uzomah continues to see an uptick in production in the receiving corps and projects as the top value in the tight end position. Uzomah is coming off a season-high seven target performance in a 41-21 win over the Baltimore Ravens and has seen six or more targets in three of the last four weeks. With a discounted price tag on DraftKings and steady volume from quarterback Joe Burrow, the tight end may not take much to reach fantasy relevance and be a stacking option in Chiefs’ bring-backs.
Top Rostered: Dallas Goedert vs. Washington Football Team – $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Projected for 13% ownership, Dallas Goedert looks to be the most popular choice at tight end this week. Goedert faces a Washington Football Team ranked 27th in DVOA, setting up an ideal spot for the tight end responsible for 18% of the Eagles target share. Despite Philadelphia’s balanced approach to their play-calling (50%/50% pass-to-run ratio), Goedert also sees work in the red zone, targeted six times this season.
