The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
The lead man for the Jazz — the largest favorite on the slate at 8.5 points — is predictably the highest ceiling option at point guard. Heading into a favorable matchup against the defensively-averse Trae Young, our model projects Mitchell could flirt with an incredible ceiling to go with the +1.1 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +2.83 over on FanDuel.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The point guard position isn’t a great one for value on this three-game slate, particularly if you’re playing on FanDuel. Clarkson is probably your best bet to save money, though, considering he’s in the same spot as Mitchell against a very poor defense.
Our model projects him for around 28% Usage, which would be a dream given the matchup, and he could comfortably achieve 5X.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: C.J. McCollum vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
This slate is an ugly one at shooting guard, but our projections do expect McCollum to have among the highest ceilings against the Clippers, who have struggled at times this season to defend the three. He’s gone for 38 FanDuel fantasy points or more in two of his last three games and should see plenty of opportunities with the Clippers ranking inside the top six in pace over their four-game winning streak.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. Utah Jazz – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The Jazz are always a scary defense to target, but if you’re going to take anyone on the Hawks on this short slate, it should be Bogdanovic. He’s averaged roughly 23 fantasy points over his last two games on FanDuel and 26 on DraftKings, and our model thinks he should push over the 25-point mark on both sides.
He owns a +7.66 Projected Plus/Minus into this matchup over on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The last time George saw the Trail Blazers, he scored 42 points in a loss. So, what does he have in mind for an encore? Well, the Blazers do rank sixth-worst against the three so far this season and have played little to no defense, so it’s no surprise our model loves PG. He should have plenty of upside on this slate with a solid Usage Projection of over 30%.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
May we interest you in a Bogdanovic stack? Bojan is projected to go for 6X over on DraftKings, where he has a +6.68 Projected Plus/Minus, making him one of the better value options across all positions. The Hawks rank fourth-worst when it comes to defensive efficiency, and Bogdanovic should be in a position to take full advantage, coming in with six straight games of 30+ minutes and an average of nearly 13 field goal attempts over the last four.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Antetokounmpo draws arguably the most favorable matchup on the slate and is deserving of the top ceiling at any position. The Sixers will be on the second night of a back-to-back and without the services of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Matisse Thybulle.
Their defense will be weakened considerably, which should work wonders on this slate given the Bucks’ affinity to push the basketball. Our model projects Antetokounmpo’s ceiling to exceed 70 fantasy points on both sites.
Top Value:
Top Value: Bobby Portis vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
I am tempted to repeat myself here because anyone with length on the Bucks is going to be at a huge advantage in this matchup. Portis is a great play because he should be blowout-proof, coming in off the bench. Our model gives the eccentric big man a Projected Plus/Minus of +11 or better on both sites, making him a fantastic play.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t the only one with 70+ fantasy point upside on this slate, according to our model. Gobert can get there, too, despite the fact that he will run into a good rebounding unit in Atlanta. We project Gobert to play a hearty 32 minutes with a solid +2.48 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel. While rebounds could be tough to come by, he should have his way down low against a weak Hawks defense.
Top Value: Andre Drummond vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
With Joel Embiid out for the Sixers, Doc Rivers gave Drummond a ridiculous 38+ minutes on the floor against the Knicks. There’s little reason to believe the story will be much different on Tuesday, especially with the Bucks on the other side of this matchup. The big man knows how to fill up a stat sheet, and our model expects him to do just that with a +15.82 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
He could push well over 6X salary.
