The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Nets will be playing in the game with the highest total on the slate and won’t have the services of Joe Harris. With Kevin Durant currently playing through bit of a shoulder issue, Harden could see massive usage in this game and carries with him the highest ceiling at point guard on both sites. We project him to hit value and then some.
Top Value: Patty Mills vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
I noted above that this is the game with the highest implied total, and that Joe Harris will be missing from the Nets lineup. Filling his shoes should be Mills, who just played 31 minutes against the Thunder after Harris went down, scoring 29 points and eclipsing 35 fantasy points on both sites. Our model gives Mills a Projected Plus/Minus of around +7.0.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Mitchell comes at a bit of a discount on this slate given a bit of a rough patch in the fantasy department, and it may be time to fire him back up in your lineups. Facing one of the worst defenses on the slate, our model has Mitchell as the highest-upside name at this position on DraftKings, and the second-highest on FanDuel, after James Harden. We project his Usage Rate to climb over 30% in what could be a bounce-back game for Utah.
Top Value: Derrick White vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
White has been a bit of a disappointment lately, but the minutes have still been steady, only dipping below 26 once all season. While this doesn’t seem like the best matchup on paper given the Clippers’ second-ranked defense, Los Angeles is middle of the road when it comes to defending the three and could offer White some open jumpers. He carries a +5.46 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +9.82 on FanDuel. Our model also projects him to have a floor around 4X salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Durant played the Warriors in a revenge spot twice last season, though only one game saw him get a full complement of minutes. He scored 20 points to go along with six assists and five boards in that game, good for just 37.8 fantasy points on DraftKings.
That came in the midst of a terrible slump for the superstar, though, and had he seen Golden State by season’s end, it may have gone differently. Our model projects Durant to hit 5X salary with the potential to go over 6X on this short slate.
He has a solid 90% Leverage Rating on DraftKings and 79% on FanDuel.
Top Value: Doug McDermott vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
I touched on the Clippers’ average three-point defense before, and McDermott may be the best way to attack it. He is the no-doubt value play over on DraftKings with an average of 26+ minutes per game over the last three games and some 20-fantasy point performances on his ledger this season. He still has a solid 5X projection over on FanDuel, but his +9.03 Projected Plus/Minus makes him the play at DraftKings.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Tobias Harris vs. Utah Jazz – $8,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Outside of Durant, our model has Harris as the highest-ceiling play at power forward. It makes sense, considering the Jazz defense has been one of the worst in basketball over the last five games and has specifically struggled inside, where they’ve allowed over 70% of shots to fall in the restricted area.
Harris is a bit pricey on DraftKings, but carries a 94% Bargain Rating into this matchup over on FanDuel. He’s a tremendous value there, but a solid play on both sites given Utah’s defensive struggles of late and Joel Embiid‘s continued absence.
Top Value: Blake Griffin vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Griffin is a bargain wherever you’re playing fantasy on Tuesday’s slate, entering the game with the highest total on the slate with an average of 25 minutes per game over his last seven contests. Golden State’s defense has been the best in the NBA this year, but they’ve had issues defending inside dating back to the start of the 2020-21 season. Our model projects Griffin to hit 5X value at the very least.
Center
Top Ceiling:
Andre Drummond vs. Utah Jazz – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
The price tag has certainly come up on Drummond, but it’s because he continues to produce. Now, he’ll face a Jazz team with noted issues defending the restricted area of late and one which ranks 17th in rebounding rate over the last five games. We project Drummond to have the highest ceiling among all centers.
Drummond is a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel with his 83% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Isaiah Hartenstein vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Hartenstein is the top value play at power forward over at FanDuel, while Blake Griffin is the top value play at center. The positional eligibility is flipped at DraftKings, so this is where you’ll slot in Hartenstein there.
We project the Clippers big man should eclipse 6X on DK with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0. His minutes have been inconsistent of late, but an injury to Terance Mann could shorten the rotation even further for Ty Lue. Hartenstein’s Usage Rate has reached 21% in four of his last seven games, too; he’s been effective whenever he’s seen the floor.
