The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook vs. Boston Celtics – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Westbrook is the consensus upside play at both sites on Tuesday’s short slate, and it’s no wonder considering the cold run the Celtics’ defense is on. This game has a high total of 220.5, which has pushed Westbrook’s ceiling among the highest on the slate. He’s a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel with his 89% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Not only is this a revenge game for Schroder against his former team, which did him the disservice of offering him a lot of money which he declined, but it’s also a great matchup. Russell Westbrook is not a highly-regarded defender, and the Lakers, in general, have struggled on that end. Schroder has seen over 31 minutes in seven of his last nine games now, and we project him for 34. Given his solid +1.49 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +2.47 on FanDuel, he should be more than worth it.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
He’s not eligible at shooting guard on DraftKings, but we don’t project any of the eligible players at this position on DK to have a ceiling of 45 fantasy points.
Doncic is in a fantastic spot with a +1.39 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a heavy Usage Projection near 35%. He should see plenty of the ball against a slumping Nets defense and will play in the game with the highest total on the slate. He’ll have had plenty of time to rest his injuries as well, sitting out on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday.
Top Value: Malik Monk vs. Boston Celtics – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
This is DraftKings special, considering he’s a bargain at $4,400 over there. That would put him at around 6X by our projections, with a +6.0 Projected Plus/Minus. Monk will be a solid play against a struggling Celtics defense no matter where you are playing, but it’s hard to match this kind of production per dollar on DraftKings.
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Dallas Mavericks – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Mavericks enter with a 113.1 defensive rating over the last five games, pushing this total up over 222 points. Our model loves the matchup for Durant, in particular, with heavy minutes and usage projected. He’s a great bargain on FanDuel with a 76% Bargain Rating, and he has the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus on FD at +1.25. His +0.53 Opponent/Plus Minus is the third-best over on DraftKings, making him a great candidate to top the slate.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. New York Knicks – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Johnson is only small forward-eligible on FanDuel, but he’s still a great play across the board on Tuesday’s short slate. The Knicks’ defense has really struggled all year, and that’s continued to be the case over the last five games with the league’s ninth-worst defensive rating. Johnson’s projected output in our model should comfortably put him over 5X salary, and he carries a solid +7.91 Projected Plus/Minus with him on FanDuel.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Boston Celtics – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Celtics have been victimized inside, allowing the fifth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area and ranking in the bottom 10 in field goal percentage in the surrounding paint. This sets up nicely for Davis, who has attempted the second-most shots per game inside the restricted area this year. His ceiling is around 50-60 points on both sites, and his +1.47 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel is crispy.
Top Value: James Johnson vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Johnson is a must-roster at this price over on DraftKings, where we project him to flirt with 5-6X. However, he’ll be a solid value play at power forward on FanDuel as well.
The stretch big has seen over 21 minutes in all but one of his last seven games, and our projections expect that to continue with around 24 on Tuesday. Given that kind of run, Johnson should well be worth it on DK against a soft Mavericks frontcourt.
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Randle has now out-performed his projection in three straight games, scoring at least 24 points in each contest and stuffing the stat sheet with around nine boards and seven assists per game. Our model sets his ceiling over 50 points fantasy points on both sites, thanks to a hefty Usage Projection over 27%.
Top Value: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
We’ve already touched on the Mavericks’ weak paint defense with James Johnson, and Aldridge should be in an even better spot to capitalize on it. He’s a little expensive, but he’s also gone for 15 points or more in six of his last eight games with solid rebounding numbers. Our model expects him to hit 6X with a great +11.64 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +6.9 on DraftKings.