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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Orlando Magic – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Ever since the Mavericks have gotten Luka Doncic back from injury, they have won six of their last seven games. They beat the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Bulls during that stretch. The price tag is slowly rising again, but it is deserving. Over the last six games that Doncic has played, he is averaging a triple-double with 21.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. A triple-double is certainly on the table tonight.
The Mavericks are 11-point home favorites against the 8-35 Magic tonight, with the lowest total on the slate at 208 points. The large spread may keep some people away from Doncic, but that feels like a mistake. Doncic leads the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists for the second-straight season. Despite playing in only 27 games this season, Doncic leads the league in usage rate with 36.2% per game.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey at Miami Heat – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The best value play according to our model tonight is 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites tonight. Maxey has been in and out of the lineup a few times lately due to injury and the COVID protocols, but whenever he does suit up, he plays huge minutes. Since returning, Maxey played 38 minutes in back-to-back games. He is projected to play 38 minutes again tonight.
Maxey struggled with his shot his first game back but was much more comfortable in his most recent game. He finished with 23 points shooting 8-for-16 from the field and 5-for-7 from behind the arc. This game features the second-lowest total on the slate at 210 points, but Maxey is too cheap for his upside.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Playing James Harden at home and avoiding him on the road may become a popular trend with Kyrie Irving only able to play road games. It helps when the home game is a matchup against the Pelicans, with this game total sitting at 230.5 points. The Nets are implied to score a slate-high 118.5 points tonight. Harden will be the main focal point of this offense. Over the last 10 games, Harden is averaging 27.2 points, 10.6 assists, and 8.3 assists per game. During that time, he has had six games where he has scored over 60 DraftKings points.
The Pelicans rank 24th in Defensive Rating and have allowed opponents to shoot 37.3% from behind the arc, which is the second-highest in the league. Harden’s 3-point numbers have taken a hit this season, but he is a historic sniper from downtown. This matchup should suit Harden very well. Look for him to be aggressive early and often. I prefer Harden on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
Note: James Harden is only point guard eligible on DraftKings.
Top Value: Coby White at Boston Celtics – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
What happened to the Bulls? They are coming off of back-to-back home drubbings. They lost to the Nets 138-112 and the Warriors 138-96. Both extremely tough opponents, but the Bulls were very undermanned. Now they travel on the road to take on the Celtics without Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso. Lonzo Ball is also questionable, which makes Coby White one of the best values on the slate. We have him projected for 34 minutes.
We will need to monitor the status of Ball the closer we get to lock, but I like White regardless. Unlike Ball, White does most of his damage scoring the ball. He has averaged 17.2 points on 11.5 field goal attempts per game over his last 12 games. White is going to be aggressive, especially with all of these guards out. They need White’s scoring with LaVine, who is averaging 24.9 points per game, not in the lineup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Boston Celtics – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Another Bulls player that I want to get exposure to tonight is DeMar DeRozan. Using our On/Off tool, with LaVine and Caruso off of the floor, DeRozan has a usage increase of +8.6%, which is by far the highest on the team. He continues to lead the Bulls averaging 25.7 points per game. That is the second-highest point total of his career. He has hit multiple game-winning shots and is proving why he was a great addition to the Bulls.
This is a great matchup specific to DeRozan. The Celtics allow the second-most field goal makes between 15-19 feet while also allowing the fifth-most attempts between 10-14 feet. This is where DeRozan thrives! He leads the league in most makes per game between 15-19 feet and is second to Kevin Durant in makes between 10-14 feet. DeRozan should feast in the mid-range tonight, and I love his price tag on both sites.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is only power forward eligible on DraftKings.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at New York Knicks – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
De’Andre Hunter priced at the minimum on DraftKings feels like a mistake. He has a 97% Bargain Rating and should be one of the best values on the slate. Since returning from injury, Hunter regained his starting spot for the Hawks. He played 24 minutes in his first game back, scoring 15 points, and played 30 minutes in his most recent game while scoring 20 points, which was the second-highest of the season for Hunter.
He has attempted double-digit field goal attempts in both games back while going 3-for-4 from behind the arc in both games. The Hawks are 3-point home favorites against the Knicks. This matchup isn’t ideal from a fantasy perspective as the Knicks rank last in the league in Pace this season. However, at this low of a price tag, that slow pace shouldn’t matter as much. This DraftKings salary makes no sense.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Denver Nuggets – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
For some reason, DraftKings has LeBron James as only center eligible tonight. FanDuel has him as small forward and power forward eligible, so we’ll hype him up here. James continues to score like crazy. He has scored 31 or more points in 11 of his last 12 games. With Anthony Davis still sidelined, we are seeing peak LeBron James. In 15 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 34.1 points and 62.4 DraftKings points per game.
The Lakers are optimistic that Davis is going to return at the end of the month, so we need to continue to take advantage of James while we still can. His usage rate has also increased from 28.7% to 33.2%, with Davis out of the lineup. This matchup against the Nuggets features the second-highest total on the slate at 224.5 points. It is weird seeing James as the most expensive player on FanDuel and only center eligible on DraftKings, but he has been dominating lately.
Note: LeBron James is only center eligible on DraftKings.
Top Value: Serge Ibaka at San Antonio Spurs – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus player on DraftKings tonight is veteran Serge Ibaka. He is also the fourth-highest on FanDuel, so this is a great spot to target the inexpensive Ibaka. The upside isn’t all that high, but Ibaka has had a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 13 games since returning to the lineup. He has had double-digit points in five of those 13 games, and the Clippers are still playing without Paul George.
Ibaka should be able to do some damage against this Spurs frontcourt. The Spurs are tied for allowing the third-most points scored in the paint this season with 49.7 per game. They rank 20th in Defensive Rating and fourth in Pace. Ibaka will likely only play 20 minutes, but he can certainly get there in limited time.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
The player with the highest ceiling on the slate belongs to center Nikola Jokic. What a surprise. The price tag on DraftKings is at a spot where it makes you think. However, on FanDuel, this is a no-brainer as Jokic has a 98% Bargain Rating. I will say Jokic has been a little disappointing recently. He has only topped 60 or more DraftKings points in two out of his last eight games. However, in this matchup, he is tough to get away from.
Anytime you play the Lakers, you know the game will be very fast-paced. The Lakers rank third in the league in Pace this season and 20th in Rebounding Percentage. They will likely have to start Dwight Howard at center tonight just to match up with Jokic. The Lakers are tied with the Spurs in allowing 49.7 points per game in the paint which is the third-highest in the league. This is a great bounceback spot for the Joker tonight.
Top Value: Dwight Powell vs. Orlando Magic – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Center is loaded tonight, especially with LeBron James being only center eligible on DraftKings. However, if you are looking to punt, Dwight Powell makes the most sense. The Mavericks are likely without Kristaps Porzingis once again, which will move Powell into the starting lineup. He is coming off of 32 minutes last game, which was his second-highest total of the season. He finished with 13 points, five rebounds, and three assists.
Powell has been a little boom or bust lately, but he has had 18 or more DraftKings points in nine of his last 12 games. During that time, Powell is averaging 9.9 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. For those 12 games, Powell has had a positive Plus/Minus in nine of them. He provides a good source of value tonight.
