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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
There has not been a hotter player in the league than James Harden recently. Over his last three games, Harden has scored over 70 DraftKings points in each game. He is averaging 36 points per game, 10.7 rebounds per game, and 11.7 assists per game during that time. Harden has also averaged 23.3 field goal attempts per game along with 13.3 free throw attempts per game. He has averaged a 36.9% usage rate as well.
This matchup against the Clippers is a rematch of their game just five days ago, where the Nets won 124-108. Not only is Harden playing well, but his minutes have been absurd lately. He has played 40 or more minutes in seven of his last 10 games. That minutes stability provides so much upside, even at this steep price tag. Harden is averaging 36.6 minutes per game this season which ranks fourth in the entire league.
Top Value: Coby White at Washington Wizards – $4,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
After a slow start to the season, Coby White has ripped off back-to-back games scoring over 40 DraftKings points. During those two games, White is averaging 20.5 points per game and eight assists per game. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for point guards and has the best points/salary.
The Wizards rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season and 24th in Pace. The slow pace certainly isn’t ideal. This matchup between the Wizards and Bulls has the lowest projected total on the slate at 217.5 points. The Bulls continue to play without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, which solidifies the playing time for White tonight. I am more interested in White on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Paying down from the top to get to Donovan Mitchell is my favorite route to go for the shooting guard position tonight. The safety Mitchell provides is impossible for me to ignore. He has scored over 40 DraftKings points in four out of his last five games while attempting 20 or more field goals in each game during that time. Mitchell has a 33.1% usage rate this season which ranks fourth in the entire league.
The matchup against the Warriors completely changes when Draymond Green is not in the lineup. He is out once again tonight. In three games that Green has missed this season, the Warriors Defensive Rating drops from 102.0 to 111.4. Mitchell has the highest ceiling at shooting guard in our model. Big-time players normally step up in big-time games. Getting to Mitchell tonight is a great leverage spot. Don’t forget about him.
Top Value: Cassius Stanley vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
If you are dumpster diving on this slate, Cassius Stanley is by far your best option. He is the stone minimum on DraftKings and close to it on FanDuel. The Pistons are without most of their players yet again tonight, which at least provides ample playing time for Stanley. He has played 19 and 27 minutes in his last two games. However, Stanley will the extra playing time has still struggled. He only shot 2-10 in his last game.
The Spurs are 7-point favorites, with this game total being rather juicy at 223 points, the second-highest on the slate. Stanley could move into the starting lineup. However, if a few of these Pistons players return, I would stay away. If Stanley starts, he makes for a really solid value play at this price tag on both sites. In their last meeting against the Spurs six days ago, Stanley had nine points, three rebounds, and 20.3 DraftKings points.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Deciding between James Harden and Kevin Durant is one of the toughest decisions on the slate. They are priced very similarly and have equal upside. Durant returned Thursday night for his first game since being in the COVID protocols for 14 days. He finished with 33 points but only 48 DraftKings points. I say “only” because Durant previously had averaged 71.3 DraftKings points per game in his last three games.
Durant missed the Nets’ last meeting against the Clippers, but he leads the Nets in points with 29.9 per game and usage rate with 31.7%. Similar to Harden, Durant also plays an incredible amount of minutes. He ranks second in the entire league in minutes playing 37 per game. He is averaging a career-high 10.9 made field goals per game while he currently sits second in the MVP race. I would get equal exposure to Durant and Harden tonight.
Top Value: Corey Kispert vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,300 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Finding value at the small forward position tonight is quite difficult. Corey Kispert stands out as the best value on FanDuel tonight at small forward with a projected Plus/Minus of +8.24 and the best points/salary. I prefer getting to Kispert on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating projected to play 30 minutes.
The minutes stability Kispert provides is the main attraction for this value play. With most of the Wizards guards in the COVID protocol, Kispert has averaged 33.5 minutes per game in his last four games. During that time, he has two games over 25 DraftKings points and two games under 12 DraftKings points. He has been a very boom or bust value play. If he can knock down his shots, Kispert could sneak his way into tonight’s optimal lineup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Washington Wizards – $9,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Finding a ceiling power forward on DraftKings is very difficult. Luckily DeMar DeRozan is only power forward eligible in a solid spot against the Wizards tonight. DeRozan continues to be one of the key pieces leading this Bulls team. DeRozan leads the Bulls in usage rate with 30.7% and points with 26.8 per game.
The Wizards are a great matchup specifically for DeRozan. He is a lethal mid-range shooter, and that is what the Wizards give up the most. They allow the second-most field goal makes between 15-19 feet and the third most between 10-14 feet. DeRozan leads the league in makes between 15-19 feet and is second between 10-14 feet. DeRozan should feast in the mid-range tonight. He makes for a great contrarian play.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is only SG/SF eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Royce O’Neale has played very poorly lately from a fantasy standpoint, but it is tough to ignore him at this price drop in a matchup he should thrive in. O’Neale is slowly turning into Tony Snell, which is not good. He has averaged 31.3 minutes per game in his last four but has yet to top 15 DraftKings points. The most field goal attempts he has had during that time is four. He played 32 minutes last game and shot the ball ZERO times!
The Jazz need O’Neale to be a little bit more aggressive on offense, especially playing against the Warriors, who will always find a way to fill up the scoreboard. O’Neale has an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. We will have to ignore his 5-straight games with a negative Plus/Minus and hope he finds a path to 20+ DraftKings points.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Houston Rockets – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
The price tag for Nikola Jokic continues to rise, but the upside and safety that he provides is unlike any other fantasy player on the slate. Jokic isn’t quite on a Harden-level output lately, but he is still averaging 66.7 DraftKings points per game in his last three games. During that time, he is averaging 25.7 points per game and a ridiculous 20.7 rebounds per game. Jokic is averaging a career-high 1.81 DraftKings points per minute.
Jokic and the Nuggets are 7-point road favorites against the Rockets tonight. The Rockets have lost 6-straight games and 10 of their last 12 games. The Rockets rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season and also rank third in Pace. They also allow 114.8 points per game. Jokic has the highest ceiling on both sites tonight.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Last but not least, we have the best value on the entire slate on both sites with Daniel Gafford. Our model has Gafford with a projected Plus/Minus of +16.58 on DraftKings and +20.09 on FanDuel. The major news is the Wizards will be playing without Montrezl Harrell, who is in the COVID protocol. In the last two games without Harrell, Gafford is averaging 13.5 points per game and 10 rebounds per game while playing 34 minutes per game.
The Bulls rank 24th in rebounding percentage this season, but they still rank in the top 10 in Defensive Rating. They rank 15th in points allowed in the paint, which is where Gafford will do most of his action. In 129 games throughout his career, Gafford has never attempted a 3-pointer. This matchup isn’t the best, but the value is. Gafford is projected for the most ownership on the slate on DraftKings and should be a staple in your cash games.
