The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, so far this season defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (56 teams) have averaged 10.54 points with a +2.41 Plus/Minus and 7.8 percent average ownership, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (71 teams) have averaged 9.42 points with a +1.97 Plus/Minus and 6.8 percent average ownership. More than halfway through the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big 2 Defenses
- Jacksonville ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
- Denver ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the last four seasons. That is not Hump’s opinion; that is a fact. Here are the top performing defenses from the past three seasons:
- In the 2014-15 season, Philadelphia averaged 12.00 points per game (PPG) and a +3.7 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 10.88 PPG and a +2.97 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
- In the 2015-16 season, both Kansas City and Denver averaged 11.13 PPG, but Kansas City led the league with its +3.07 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +3.49 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
- In the 2016-17 season, Kansas City averaged 10.00 PPG and a +2.79 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.12 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
This season, the Jaguars are crushing to the tune of 13.78 PPG (nearly two points higher than Philadelphia’s 2014-15 pace) and a +5.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel; both of those numbers obliterate previous-highs on both sites. The Jaguars defense is killing it in more ways than one, and they are currently the No. 1 rated defense for both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model.
This week, the Jaguars leave the comforts of #Sacksonville and travel to Cleveland as 7.5-point road favorites against a Browns team implied to score a slate-low and downright pathetic 14.8 points. The Browns’ offensive line has been slightly below league-average this season, allowing a 7.5 percent adjusted sack rate, but they will have their hands full with Jacksonville’s defense that has registered a league-leading 35 sacks and 10.8 percent sack percentage. Jacksonville ranks third in the NFL with their 3.8 percent interception rate and has allowed a league-low 14.9 PPG. The Jaguars’ price may be prohibitive (especially on FanDuel), but, like Bitcoin, they are likely still worth buying.
Orange Crush(ed)
The Denver Broncos have not been a good fantasy (or real life) defense this season: They have allowed the fourth-most points in the league (26.6), have the eighth-lowest interception percentage (1.7 percent), and have an exceedingly average sack percentage (6.5 percent). In nine games this season, they have scored double-digit points only once and scored negative points against New England last week. Overall, they have averaged 5.33 PPG and a -2.13 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 5.30 PPG and a -2.00 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. And for their stellar efforts they have been awarded an $800 price increase on DraftKings and a $500 raise on FanDuel. The Broncos are modest 2.5-point favorites at home against Cincinnati this week, and, although the Bengals’ offensive line has allowed the fifth-highest adjusted sack percentage (9.0 percent) in the NFL, Denver does not exactly inspire confidence at this point.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
New Orleans Saints ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): The Saints defense is the NFL’s most undervalued unit, and this week New Orleans welcomes Washington into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as 7.5-point favorites. In four home games this season, New Orleans has averaged 14.0 PPG and a +7.32 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +7.47 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Saints have the fifth-best interception percentage (3.4 percent) and 10th-best sack percentage (7.8 percent) in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): The Chiefs travel to New York as slate-high 10.5-point favorites against the Giants, who are implied to score the second-fewest points (17.3) on the slate. Kansas City is currently the No. 1 rated defense in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where they have an 80 percent Bargain Rating.
Minnesota Vikings ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The Vikings have our second-highest projected sack total (3.5) at home against the Los Angeles Rams this week. We currently have them projected at zero to one percent ownership on both sites, making them a great play in guaranteed prize pools.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Matthew Freedman writes about kickers — it’s what he does — and he quotes himself and speaks in a British accent; he’s a weirdo. He also has a slight huge man crush on Greg Zuerlein ($5,300). Zuerlein and the Rams take on the aforementioned Vikings as 2.5-point road underdogs this week. Kickers playing on the road as one-to-four point underdogs have historically averaged 8.22 PPG and a +0.15 Plus/Minus with 47.1 percent Consistency. In 14 such games, Zuerlein has scored 7.71 PPG with a -0.30 Plus/Minus. That said, Legatron has scored double-digit points in all four of his road games this season, posting an impressive 16.75 PPG and +8.45 Plus/Minus.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,100): The Patriots-Raiders game in Mexico currently has the highest total (53.5) on the slate, and Gostkowski leads all kickers with a +4.83 Projected Plus/Minus. In 15 games since 2014 with a total of at least 50 points, Gostkowski has averaged 10.40 PPG and a +1.94 Plus/Minus with 73.3 percent Consistency.
Josh Lambo ($4,600): One of the cheapest kickers on the slate, Lambo has a top-10 median projection to go along with his chunky +3.38 Projected Plus/Minus. Stacking Lambo with the elite Jaguars D/ST could be wise in GPPs.
