While most daily fantasy players are more familiar with the usual salary-cap structure, DraftKings also has tournaments in a pick ’em style: There are no player salaries, and you simply select one player across each of the eight tiers.
Here’s a breakdown of the pick ’em slate for Week 6 of the NFL season.
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Tier 1: Elite Passers
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Even against the Jaguars defense, Mahomes hit 20 points for a fifth consecutive game last weekend. His modest day was saved by a rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 4.4 carries per game through five weeks, 1.6 per game coming in the red zone. Mahomes is also averaging 302.6 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game.
With scoring potential on the ground and through the air, his floor remains among the highest this week.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Brady is the best way to take advantage of the absurd over/under in the Chiefs-Patriots matchup that has risen to 59.5 as of writing (see live data here). Brady owns the highest ceiling projection in our Models and will not be as popular of a play as Mahomes. The Patriots are also a slight favorite at home, a spot in which Brady is especially dominant, according to the Trends Tool.
Tom Brady as a home favorite
Brady is the perfect pivot from Mahomes.
Tier 2: The Next Passers
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Goff leads the league in adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.77) and tops Tier 2 in both fantasy points per game and the mean projection of the FantasyLabs Models.
If wide receivers Cooper Kupp (concussion) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) suit up — watch our News Feed for updates on both receivers — Goff should build on his 12 touchdowns through five weeks.
Don’t overthink it. Ride Goff in cash.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston and the Bucs have an implied team total of 27 points against a Falcons defense that has been hamstrung by injuries at safety, cornerback, linebacker and defensive end. The Falcons have given up the third-most points (27.2) to opposing passers. Winston is also a sneaky pick to score the most among passers this week per Matthew Freedman and Sean Koerner on the Action Network NFL Podcast.
Continue to attack the Atlanta defense with Winston this week.
Tier 3: Elite Flexes
Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Gordon’s 14.6 rush attempts per game are barely better than the 14.2 he tallied in his dismal 2015 rookie campaign. Despite that, he’s on pace for his best fantasy season due to career highs in yards per carry (4.6), targets per game (7.6) and total touchdowns per game (1.2).
His receiving volume outweighs any decrease in rushing volume, and his efficiency has propelled him to 100 total yards or a score in every game this season. Gordon is a safe bet in cash lineups.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans has a .36 correlation in scoring with Winston, making them an obvious stack. The public is bullish on the Buccaneers-Falcons over/under that has already risen by a half-point to 57.5.
Evans has historically excelled as an underdog:
- Underdog: 17.6 points per game, 9.5% ownership (standard contests)
- Favorite: 16.3 points per game, 13.4% ownership
The Evans-Winston combo is a must in tournaments.
Tier 4: Top-End Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Hopkins will square off against Bills corner Tre’Davious White this week. White ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd-best corner and could shadow Hopkins.
Hopkins is no stranger to shadow coverage, much of which has come from better defenders.
DeAndre Hopkins since 2017:
vs. Jalen Ramsey (x2) 7-55-1, 4-80-1 (shadow)
vs. Marcus Peters 4-52-3
vs. Richard Sherman 8-224-1
vs. Patrick Peterson 4-76-1 (s)
vs. Jimmy Smith 7-125-0
vs. Joe Haden 4-65-1 (s)
vs. Janoris Jenkins 6-86-0 (s)
vs. Byron Jones: 9-151-0— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 10, 2018
Averaging 11.4 targets per game, Hopkins is a great cash play against a corner who will be unable to stop the receiver.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
In a game with a comically high total, Hill will get a shot at trying to replicate his 7-133-1 stat line from the Chiefs’ encounter with New England last season. This game also features two fast-paced offenses, each ranking in the top 10 in seconds per play during neutral game scripts.
Stacking Hill and Brady is a viable way to take advantage of a shootout while dodging the Mahomes ownership.
Tier 5: High-Floor Backs
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke currently sits at third in rush attempts (93) while leading the NFL in rushing yards (480). He’s also seen an increase in targets per game, averaging 5.8 through five weeks compared to 3.8 in 2017.
Volume is king, and Elliott sits on a throne of carries. He’s a solid play in any format.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon has averaged 20 carries and 4 targets per game in his three appearances this season. Giovani Bernard (knee) is trending toward not playing this Sunday, leaving Mixon to dominate the Bengals backfield. With the Bengals a home favorite against the Steelers, Mixon should have no problem running in positive game script. He provides an arbitrage play on Zeke, as both are workhorse backs.
Tier 6: Receivers Galore
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Sanders sits atop the Broncos receiving unit in targets (44), receptions (33) and receiving yards (386). He’ll get a Rams defense which is 12th against opposing receivers — but that might be misleading. Los Angeles has given up 28.3 points and 263.3 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks.
Sanders should be able to leverage his volume against a recently exposed defense.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Brady’s slot receiver looked at home in his return from suspension, bringing in seven receptions for 57 yards on nine targets in Week 5. Kansas City has allowed the second-most passing yards per game this season (343), meaning that Edelman can be stacked with his quarterback as well Patriots running back James White in Tier 5.
Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Johnson
Tier 7: Low-End Flexes
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
On a Cardinals offense that is averaging 13 points per game, Johnson might not have the upside he used to. But he still has a floor of volume: He’s averaging 14.8 carries and three receptions per game. Johnson is also tied for first with nine DraftKings Pro Trends.
After starting the season in the first tier of flex plays, he’s fallen to a value in Tier 7.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s showdown with Atlanta features a 57.5-point total, which bodes well for Jackson. In games with a 55-point total or higher, WR2s and their passers have an increased correlation of .57 (per the Correlations Tool).
With the Bucs averaging 3.1 yards per carry and their only rushing score coming from the now-benched Ryan Fitzpatrick, they will have to score through the air. That makes Jackson another way to get in on the second-highest total of the week.
Tier 8: Veteran Picks
John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Brown spent the past two seasons dealing with health issues that robbed him of any fantasy value. Now he’s back in a big way: Brown is first in the NFL in Air Yards (871) and he’s doing so with a blistering 19.8 aDOT. This high-volatility volume is perfect for tournament lineups.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
Oakland faces Seattle — across the pond — in a game with sneaky scoring potential. Neither defense has a favorable matchup. Should the Raiders put up points, Lynch will likely be involved. He’s one of only seven players with double-digit touches inside the 10-yard line. Jalen Richard is the next-closest Raiders back … with two.
Lynch has underrated scoring potential that his ownership is unlikely to reflect. He’s a solid tournament play this week.
Pictured above: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
