Kansas Speedway plays host to the second race of the 2022 NASCAR playoffs, as drivers take to the track for 267 laps in the Hollywood Casino 400 (3:00 p.m. ET, USA).
This is the second time this year teams and drivers visit Kansas, so we’ll have some track history data to rely on.
In addition, I’m looking at recent performance at higher speed, non-drafting ovals to help inform my decision making and increase my sample size of relevant races.
We also have practice speeds to look at, so there’s plenty of information to use when setting lineups for today’s race.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Keeping all that in mind, here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for tonight’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas.
Kansas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Tyler Reddick ($9800): As the polesitter, Reddick will have the best pit stall and early clean air to work with.
Reddick was also fastest over every single long-run practice metric, making him the car to beat for today’s race.
In the first Kansas race this year, Reddick was running inside the top three when he had a tire go down. That left his car damaged and slower for the rest of the race. If you’re looking at green-flag speed from that race, you should ignore that.
Instead, my FLAGS metric shows that Reddick was among the five fastest cars in that first race prior to his tire issue.
Kyle Larson ($10,700): With hot and slick being the name of the game at Kansas this weekend, it makes sense that Reddick and Kyle Larson would be the two cars to beat.
In the Xfinity race, we saw Noah Gragson use that driving style to perfection. In the Truck Series, it was John Hunter Nemechek.
Put simply, the favorites who are used to riding near the top on a slick track are faring the best.
Cue Kyle Larson, who was second-best to Reddick in all the practice metrics.
Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6500 and $6300): Both drivers had issues that prevented them from qualifying, relegating them to the 35th and 36th starting positions.
They easily become cash-game locks as a result.
Kansas DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Kevin Harvick ($8700): Harvick was happy with his car in practice. No more evidence is needed than crew chief Rodney Childers tweeting out that they had a great car.
If you’ve followed this space for any significant amount of time, you’ll know Childers is a truth-teller.
That means Harvick should have a strong car that will move forward today. Add in his butter-smooth consistency, and we have the makings of a driver who can finish near the front while other drivers draw more ownership.
The Kaulig Cars: I mentioned how good Noah Gragson ($6100) was in Xfinity, taking the win with clearly the best driver/car combination. While he may not have the fastest car, this track suits his driving style. Look for him to move forward from his 28th-place starting spot.
Meanwhile, teammate Justin Haley ($5500) is potentially the better tournament play of the two, if you had to choose one. Haley was fast in practice, placing inside the top 10 in five-lap average.
Kansas DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
My PMPOTW this week is the driver I took 25-1 to finish as top Ford. That’s none other than Christopher Buescher ($6900).
Buescher was fast in the first Kansas race despite having to come from the back of the field.
The good news, he doesn’t have to wade through traffic this time. Buescher qualified 10th, meaning he can show his true speed.
That speed includes the fifth-best time over five consecutive laps.
While his longer-run speed tailed off a bit, if this race ends under several late yellows like the spring race did, that should bode well for the newly announced father-to-be.
