DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Texas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Wurth 400

Track positions should be key as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400.

Texas has tended to be a one-groove racetrack during the Next Gen era, and its low-tire-wear surface should make it difficult to pass, even over a long run. That means, whoever is out front coming out of the last pit stop will probably finish out front, barring a late-race restart.

That means we can look at some contrarian plays thanks to strategy and potentially untimely cautions (like the one in Stage 3 last year) to shake things up.

Add in my practice FLAGS data along with track history as the most important factors, and we’ll have a bit of an idea of how to get a handle on this race.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Wurth 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Tyler Reddick ($10,200): Reddick starts 17th, which will give him some place-differential potential, and in two of the three Texas races with the Next Gen car, Reddick has put up the bulk of the top fastest laps of the race.

Add in his third-best time in practice FLAGS, and he’s a driver to lean on this weekend.

Chase Elliott ($9000): At Texas where track position is key, we love cheaper drivers on bigger teams, because if they get track position they should be able to keep it.

Chase Elliott should definitely be able to keep track position should he get it after coming in fourth in my practice FLAGS metric, right behind Reddick.

By virtue of starting 29th, he’ll also add in plenty of place-differential points, and he’s my favorite play between him, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano, who all start between 24th and 29th.

Note: Blaney and Logano are both good plays in all formats as well thanks to their deep starting positions.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6200): Stenhouse had one of the best cars at Texas last year, but unfortunately he got caught out with an untimely caution that put him a lap down. Stenhouse drove up into the top 10 and looked like a legitimate threat to win prior to that yellow flag, and he was one of the few drivers who seemed to be able to regularly make passes.

This year, Stenhouse starts 34th and was about mid-pack in FLAGS, which would put him on the verge of, or slightly inside, the top 20 on speed. That’s plenty good enough at $6200.

Wurth 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Ty Gibbs ($8000): Gibbs has burned a lot of people this year, but more recently he has realized some of his upside with a ninth at Darlington and third at Bristol.

Gibbs was second in practice FLAGS, and he starts sixth. If he’s able to reach the front for a minimum of 20-30 laps through pit stops or strategy and finish inside the top five, he’ll be in the optimal lineup.

Alex Bowman ($8400): While I prefer Gibbs to Bowman thanks to starting position, salary, and FLAGS, Bowman is the pivot off the pivot (Gibbs).

Bowman could almost just as easily grab the lead through pit stops, speed, or strategy, and then all he’d need to do is hang on for about a top 6-8 finishing position to end up optimal.

I’d probably build in a bit of negative correlation between Gibbs and Bowman, but there is a good shot (42.7% per my model) at least one of the two ends up in the optimal lineup, and they project to be just over 30% rostered by my projections.

Wurth 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

This week I’m locking in Noah Gragson ($6800) as my PMPOTW.

Gragson starts 18th, so he won’t be too heavily rostered, but he makes a nice pivot off Ryan Preece (who is a solid play himself in all formats), who comes in $200 more expensive.

Gragson was a borderline top-10 car in practice FLAGS, depending on how you weigh each of the two practice groups, and Gragson has shown flashes at 1.5-mile tracks with finishes of sixth and ninth at Las Vegas and Kansas last year.

My model gives him about a 10% chance to end up in the optimal lineup, but it projects him to be sub-8% owned. I like going a bit overweight here on Gragson given the damage he could do by catching a timely caution or a late-race restart.