The final event of the 2021 swing season has arrived. The TOUR heads just south of Augusta for the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort (Seaside) and Sea Island Resort (Plantation).
Each golfer will play three rounds on the Seaside course and one round on the Plantation course.
Sea Island Resort (Seaside) is a par 70 layout, measuring 7,005 yards and the Plantation course is a Par 72 measuring 7,062 yards. The Seaside course plays more like a coastal links course, while the Plantation Course is similar to a tree-lined parkland course. Both courses feature bermudagrass greens, and both will be very score-able. The past three winners of the event have all finished at -19 and won in a playoff.
Some notable players in the field include Harris English, Russell Henley, Max Homa, Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann, Louis Oosthuizen, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, and Cameron Smith.
For GPP contests on DraftKings. I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
The greens at Seaside are big, so it will be important to stick approach shots close this week to avoid having to make difficult two-putt par saves. In what should be a birdie-fest, golfers will need to stick their approach shots to contend.
- High-end target: Russell Henley – $9,600 (2nd SG:APP)
- Mid-range target: Mito Pereira – $8,300 (3rd SG: APP)
- Value target: Luke Donald – $6,200 (1st SG: APP)
Length really isn’t a factor at either course this week. Looking at the past winners at Sea Island, they are all accurate golfers off of the tee who know how to find the fairway.
- High-end target: Corey Conners – $9,900 (5th Fairways Gained)
- Mid-range target: Brendon Todd – $8,400 (4th Fairways Gained)
- Value target: Tyler Duncan – $7.200 (12th Fairways Gained)
Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass
This tournament could become a putting contest if the winds aren’t strong this week. Historically, the winners of the RSM Classic are great bermudagrass putters (Simpson, Kisner, Hughes).
- High-end target: Cameron Smith – $10,300 (1st SG: Putting Bermuda)
- Mid-range target: Brendon Todd – $8,400 (7th SG: Putting Bermuda)
- Value target: Chesson Hadley – $6,300 (2nd SG: Putting Bermuda)
Birdie or Better Gained
With birdies (and potentially some eagles) likely to come in abundance this week, pars aren’t going to cut it at Sea Island. I anticipate the winning score to be close to -20, so targeting golfers who go low is the right strategy here.
- High-end target: Cameron Smith – $10,300 (1st in Birdie or Better)
- Mid-range target: Danny Lee – $7,700 (3rd in Birdie or Better)
- Value target: Hank Lebioda – $6,600 (5th in Birdie or Better)
Strokes Gained: Par 4 (400-450)
With eight of the par 4s on the Seaside course measuring 400-450 yards, I am looking to target golfers who excel on par 4s of this length.
- High-end target: Corey Conners – $9,900 (7th Par 4: 400-450)
- Mid-range target: Mito Pereira – $8,300 (2nd Par 4: 400-450)
- Value target: Tyler Duncan – $7,200 (1st Par 4: 400-450)