The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Nazem Kadri ($8,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri is having a career year and shows no signs of slowing down. He may skate on the second line in Colorado, but Kadri’s our top play on Tuesday’s slate.
The truth is, skating on the second line works to Kadri’s advantage most nights as most opponents defer skating their top checking line against the Avs’ top line featuring Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog, affording Kadri and his linemates better on-ice matchups. We’re expecting that to continue at home against the Dallas Stars tonight. Analytically, Kadri is among the league’s elite, putting up a 62.6% expected goals-for percentage and being on the ice for an average of 12.4 scoring and 3.5 high-danger chances per game.
Kadri is riding a seven-game point streak into tonight’s Central Division battle, delivering 25 shots on net over that span. He could be due for a break-out performance against a Stars team that has stopped fewer than 89.2% of shots at five-on-five in four of their past six outings.
Top Value
Evgeni Malkin ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Granted, Evgeni Malkin doesn’t come at a substantial discount, carrying a modestly priced salary on both platforms; Still, the Russian center is in a good spot to continue his hot start to the season, and his salary doesn’t accurately reflect his fantasy ceiling.
Malkin has recorded 13 points through his first 13 games of the year, and his advanced metrics support ongoing production. The former Hart Trophy winner ranks second on the Pittsburgh Penguins in expected goals-for rating, thanks to his 62.1% scoring chance rating and 58.0% high-danger chances rating. Malkin has been more successful on home ice this season, with eight of his 13 points coming in his friendly confines.
Among players who have played at least 230 minutes, only five in the offensive zone more often than Malkin, with 82.8% of his starts in the attacking zone. That sets Malkin and the Pens up for success against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Wing
Top Play
Nikita Kucherov ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
Nikita Kucherov has played only 13 games with the Tampa Bay Lightning this season, but he’s made the most of his time on the ice. We’re expecting more dominance from Kucherov tonight against the New Jersey Devils.
The Russian-born winger leads the Bolts in most relative advanced metrics. Kucherov has the best scoring and high-danger chance ratings across all strengths, with a phenomenal 70.5% quality opportunity ratio, leading the team in Corsi rating and shots-for percentage. Those metrics have lifted Kuch to 18 points through 13 games, with 10 of them coming at even strength.
The scary part about Kucherov’s performances this season is that he’s underachieving relative to his advanced metrics. The 28-year-old’s actual goals-for rating is below expected, with a 0.984 PDO. Good luck trying to reign him in New Jersey.
Top Value
Evander Kane ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The best players in any sport have a way of elevating those around them, and that’s what we’re seeing from Connor McDavid and Evander Kane. McDavid has his usual salary against the Los Angeles Kings, but Kane remains undervalued on both DFS platforms.
Since joining the Edmonton Oilers, Kane has spent most of his time with McDavid. That has helped Kane establish a 60.3% expected goals-for rating, with on-ice scoring and high-danger chances of 12.3 and 4.3 per game, respectively. However, the power forward has yet to find his rhythm with his new team, recording just four points over seven games and failing to live up to his expected goals-for total.
Kane has attempted 21 shots over his past five outings but has recorded just one goal. We’re expecting some puck luck to befall Kane as his shooting percentage works back up towards his career average.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Philadephia Flyers
Kris Letang has been an elite-producing defenseman throughout his career, and that is true again this season. The Pens’ rearguard has 43 points through 45 games, ranking fifth among d-men in the league.
Letang projects as a top-rated defense option against the Flyers tonight. The two-time Stanley Cup winner has been productive over this recent sample but hasn’t had any luck finding the back of the net. Letang has put 19 shots on target over his past seven games, including nine over his last two, but has been unable to find the back of the net. Nevertheless, he’s still scoring, recording six assists over the seven-game sample.
No Penguins player has been on the ice for more scoring or high-danger opportunities than Letang, but that’s not reflected in his recent game scores. We’re anticipating more goals from Letang, starting tonight against the Flyers.
Top Value
Esa Lindell ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
We’ve talked about the stable of blueliners that the Stars can turn to on any night, leading to some undervalued players. That’s the case tonight for Esa Lindell, as the Stars compete against the Avs on the backend of a home-and-home series.
This season, Lindell has been deployed primarily as a defensive d-man, but we’re starting to see his offensive upside in his recent game scores. The Finnish defender has put shots on target in 15 of his previous 16 contests, attempting 31 shots over that span and leading to just two goals. That has decreased Lindell’s on-ice PDO to 0.978 and kept his actual goals-for rating below expected.
Lindell’s scoring won’t remain deflated, and we should see more points from him over his coming sample as output catches up with production. In the $4,000 range on both platforms, Lindell is a value play against the Avs tonight.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Devils offense has been completely ineffective over their recent stretch, and we’re not expecting that to change against one of the best teams in the league. That should lead to another strong showing from Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Vasilevskiy hasn’t missed a beat over his recent outings, posting above-average save percentages in three of his past four starts. Yet, the Russian netminder has only two wins to show for his efforts, going 2-1-1 with a 2.21 goals-against average while stopping 93.0% of shots. We’re expecting more wins to follow those above-average performances, and that starts against a Devils team that has attempted just 13 high-danger chances combined over their past two games, going above nine such chances just two times over their previous six games.
The Lightning are a class above the Devils, which should help Vasilevskiy get back in the win column tonight.
Dustin Tokarski ($7,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
This is one of the few times that we will recommend including Dustin Tokarski on your DFS rosters, but objective stats support his inclusion.
This season, Tokarski has been an all-or-nothing goalie for the Buffalo Sabres, posting a 91.2% save percentage or better in eight of his appearances or 89.2% or worse in his seven other appearances. We’re projecting him to play on the upper end of that scale against the New York Islanders tonight. The Sabres are coming off strong performances, limiting their last two opponents to 11 total high-danger opportunities and 33 scoring chances. That should continue against an Islanders team that has been ineffective offensively through most of the season and has attempted eight or fewer quality chances in three of their past five.
On that basis, Tokarski is undervalued on tonight’s slate and should exceed the implied value of his low salary. If you’ve overspent on skaters, Tokarski is a value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As usual, our lineup builder reveals several noteworthy combinations worth considering as stacking options on tonight’s slate. We’ve landed on the Penguins’ stack as they take on an underwhelming Flyers squad.
For our stack, we’re highlighting a pair of forwards on the Pens’ top line, Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. Guentzel and Crosby rank one-two in the Penguins’ scoring with 50 and 44 points, respectively. The forwards have advanced metrics to back up their elite scoring metrics, being on the ice for the second and third-most high-danger chances across all strengths. They are behind Kris Letang in those, who we’ve included in our Penguins’ stack. As noted, Letang is an analytics darling and should see increased scoring. Casey Desmith is the projected starter and should limit a Flyers team that has been outplayed in five of their past seven games.
Betting market confidence is high on the Pens and getting higher. After opening up in the -300 range, Pittsburgh has been bought up as high as -360 at some sportsbooks.
