The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a five-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Tyler Seguin ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Dallas Stars second line is heating up, and Tyler Seguin is at the center of it. The Stars get an ideal matchup on Sunday night that could perpetuate their recent hot streak.
Seguin and his linemates, Alexander Radulov and Jamie Benn have combined for seven points over their past two games. Seguin leads the charge with three points over that span, but his underlying metrics suggest that increased output is forthcoming. The Stars’ center has attempted three or more shots in six of his past seven, totaling 29 shots over that span. His relative metrics are also noteworthy, as Seguin is above 50.0% in scoring and high-danger chances but has a PDO of 0.959, implying we are just at the start of his hot streak.
The Canucks have some of the worst relative metrics in the league, giving the Stars an excellent stepping-off point for continuing their recent uptick in output. Seguin will be leading the charge and is the top play at center.
Top Value
Ryan Johansen ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Once again, a winger playing the Chicago Blackhawks has worked his way into our winger value spot. Ryan Johansen and the Nashville Predators will have ample offensive opportunity against the Hawks.
The ideal matchup isn’t the only thing working in Johansen’s favor on Sunday. He also has solid relative metrics, which indicate he’s due for ongoing success. Johansen has points in four of his past six outings, with three of his five points coming on the man advantage. The 29-year-old has been on the ice for the fifth-most shots and sixth-most scoring opportunities on the Preds and is individually responsible for 12 shots and 12 scoring chances so far this season.
The most significant factor working in Johansen’s favor — the Hawks have allowed nine goals over their previous two games and at least four goals in nine of 12 so far this season. $4,200 on FanDuel slates is a steal, and Johansen rates as one of the best bargains on the FantasyLabs projections.
Wing
Top Play
David Perron ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
David Perron doesn’t get a lot of fanfare, but he’s quietly having an outstanding start to the season with the St. Louis Blues. According to our projections, Sunday looks like a good time to include Perron on your DFS rosters.
The veteran winger ranks near the top of most offensive production categories on the Blues. Across all strengths, Perron has the fourth-best Corsi rating and shots-for percentage and third-best scoring chance rating, culminating in the team’s fourth expected goals-for percentage. The Blues deploy Perron on their first line and use him as the point man on their first powerplay unit. It’s not surprising then to note that five of his 10 points have come on the powerplay.
Perron ranks near the top of the Median, Ceiling, and Floor Projections for tonight’s slate, making him our top play at wing.
Top Value
Jamie Benn ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
We’ve paired our top play at center with his value winger — Jamie Benn.
The Stars captain only has two goals and two assists on the season, but two of those have come in the last two games. The decreased output also isn’t from lack of trying. Benn has attempted at least two shots in five straight games and is individually responsible for 20 scoring chances through 10 games. Benn also accumulates fantasy points with blocked shots and is one of four Stars’ forwards with a positive plus/minus rating.
Benn rides shotgun on Seguin’s forward line and powerplay unit and serves as a solid complimentary piece at an affordable salary.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Like Johansen, one of Roman Josi’s best attributes is the team he’s facing on Sunday night. That’s not to diminish Josi’s metrics, though, as the defenseman remains one of the best in the NHL.
The former Norris Trophy winner has the third-best Corsi rating among all Predators and has been on the ice for more goals and high-danger goals than any other Predator. Josi is running hot right now, with three points, two of which have come on the powerplay, and eight shots over this past two games. That makes it 12 points and seven powerplay points this season, both of which are tops in the league among defensemen, to go along with 39 shots, which ranks second behind Brent Burns.
FantasyLabs projects Josi as the premier defenseman on Sunday’s slate, and he gets an ideal matchup against a porous Hawks squad.
Top Value
Ryan Suter ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Add Ryan Suter to the list of Stars players that are worth including on your Sunday rosters.
Suter has had a renaissance in Dallas, seeing boosts to some of his scoring metrics early this season. The veteran defenseman is on pace for his most scoring chances since the 2014-15 season and his best expected goals-for percentage since 2017-18. Suter’s on-ice relative production stats are all above 50.0% at five-on-five and across all strengths, indicating he creates more chances than he gives up. However, his on-ice PDO remains below 1.000, which suggests that Suter could see an increase in output over his coming games.
DraftKings has Suter’s salary lower than FanDuel does, but he presents as a low-cost option with a high fantasy ceiling on both platforms.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Kaapo Kahkonen ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The New York Islanders aren’t the type of team to throw everything and the kitchen sink at their opposition, and the Minnesota Wild can be a hard defensive system to crack. That makes Kaapo Kahkonen an attractive option in net on Sunday’s slate.
Kahkonen was unimpressive in his lone start this season, allowing five goals on 29 shots, but he will be insulated tonight against the Islanders. At five-on-five, the Wild have allowed more than seven high-danger chances twice over their past eight games. Opponents have attempted 16 or fewer scoring chances in four of eight. That sets Kahkonen up for a solid showing against an Islanders team that averages 20.3 scoring and 8.6 high-danger chances per game.
As is typically the case with goalies, Kahkonen has been much better at home than on the road throughout his career. That is contributing to his projections, which rate him as one of the top options in net.
Top Value
Braden Holtby ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Braden Holtby is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s contest, but he remains one of the best bargain options on the slate.
According to our projections, Holtby ranks in the upper echelon of goalies based on our points/salary rating. Holtby is flying high in Dallas with a 92.4% save percentage and 2.6 goals saved above average, his highest marks since the 2016-17 season. The Stars netminder won’t face a barrage of offense from the Canucks, who have the second-worst expected goals-for rating in the league. Holtby is thriving in Dallas and should continue to flourish in the Stars defense-first system.
Tonight’s game is a classic revenge spot for Holtby against his former team. Narrative aside, his low salary and high ceiling make him our top value play.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Given our affinity for Stars players in our breakdown, it’s not surprising to see them rate highly in our lineup builder. Using projected points as a stepping-off point, several Stars combinations ranked near the top of the list.
The combination that rated near the top of the list features three players already mentioned. Seguin and Benn pair well upfront, as the forwards skate on the same forward line and powerplay unit, with both players having success recently. Although Holtby has dropped three straight decisions, his metrics remain above average, and the netminder is set up for ongoing success in the Stars system. Although Suter can be included on DFS rosters, our lineup builder highlighted Miro Heiskanen as the best option on defense. Heiskanen has 10 points in 10 games this season and is fresh off a three-point performance. Getting time on the powerplay elevates Heiskanen’s fantasy appeal against a subpar Canucks penalty kill.
Betting confidence is in the Stars’ favor tonight, as they opened as slight favorites with early money coming in on them. Further validation that the Stars lineup is the way to go on Sunday.
