The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a two-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Elias Pettersson($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
It’s a quiet night scheduling-wise, but the Vancouver Canucks will still be hoping to make some noise against the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets come into tonight’s contest on the second night of a back-to-back, which is an ideal matchup for the Canucks to exploit.
For the Canucks to walk away victorious, their top players need to produce, and that starts with Elias Pettersson. The Finish forward is pointless over his past four games but should see some progression over his coming games. Pettersson remains over 14.0% off his expected goals-for rating at five-on-five and has a PDO of 0.973. The Nucks continue to set Pettey up for success, giving him 77.1% of his starts in the offensive zone at five-on-five and 84.2% across all strengths. Those additional opportunities will be beneficial against an overworked Jets squad, playing their third game in four nights with their backup tending between the pipes.
Petterson will have opportunities on Friday night and we should start to see his five-on-five output start to climb.
Top Value
Jared McCann ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
It hasn’t been an ideal start for the Seattle Kraken. The Kraken sit last in the Pacific Division with a 4-11-1 record. However, their underlying metrics support that they are better than their record implies. Jared McCann will find his name on the score sheet as the Kraken start their upward climb.
McCann is fourth on the team in scoring and has the team lead with three powerplay goals. The 25-year-old has recorded three points over his past three outings and has three or more shots in three of his past four games. There are two notable metrics that support McCann as an elite fantasy producer. First, he has an expected goals-for percentage of 51.7% despite getting only 48.6% of his starts in the offensive zone. Second, McCann is an effective points producer while maintaining an on-ice PDO of 0.938 at five-on-five and 0.903 across all strengths.
The Kraken’s second-line center should see increased output over these coming games, yet he carries a modest salary on DFS slates tonight. That type of value is worth including across any lineup type.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Kyle Connor has quietly asserted himself as not only one of the best players on the Jets but in the NHL. He sits near the top of the scoring leaderboard and has the metrics to back up ongoing output.
Connor has the Jets offense flying high. The 25-year-old has an expected goals-for rating above 60.0% across all strengths, thanks to his solid production metrics. Connor leads the Jets with on-ice scoring and high-danger chances, with 201 and 91, respectively. Individually, the talented winger is responsible for 66 and 26, translating to 21 points in 16 games. Moreover, Connor has recorded a point in five straight games, and a big performance is on the horizon. Connor has attempted 31 shots over his past five games, including 19 over his past two, but has yet to break through.
The Canucks don’t typically offer much in terms of resistance, and this could be the spot where it all comes together for Connor.
Top Value
Nils Hoglander ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Canucks have a plethora of skilled forwards, which garner the lion’s share of the attention in Vancouver but don’t look past the value that Nils Hoglander brings.
Hoglander has the fifth-best Corsi rating among Canucks forwards across all strengths, and the sixth-best expected goals-for percentage. The young Swede is finding his rhythm over his recent stretch, recording five points over his previous four games. All five of those points have come at even-strength, although Hoglander does skate on the team’s second powerplay unit, boosting his implied value on DFS slates.
Vancouver and Hoglander are well-positioned for a solid showing tonight against the Jets.
Defense
Top Play
Mark Giordano ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
When the Calgary Flames exposed Mark Giordano in the expansion draft, they knew exactly what they would be losing. Giordano has done nothing but live up to his reputation since landing in Seattle.
Gio has the second-best Corsi rating among Kraken defensemen across all strengths, spending time on special teams and leading the team in ice-time. He’s used that time to put together 61.8% scoring chance and 64.7% high-danger ratings. However, Giordano’s output is analogous to the team as a whole, who are underachieving relative to production metrics. Across all strengths, Giordano has a 0.958 PDO, and his actual goals-for percentage is below expected.
The Kraken and Giordano are progression candidates, and the floodgates should open up for them. FantasyLabs projects Giordano as one of the best options on the blue line.
Top Value
Samuel Girard ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
The Colorado Avalanche have an embarrassment of riches, which is contributing to their league-leading Stanley Cup futures odds. Included in that is defenseman Samuel Girard, who has emerged as an outstanding contributor on the Avs’ blue line.
Girard has had a productive couple of weeks, and that’s culminated with an exceptional recent stretch. The 23-year-old has recorded seven points over his past four games, with six points coming at even-strength and one assist coming on the powerplay. Girard’s Corsi rating, scoring chance, and high-danger chance percentage are all above 50.0%, despite the young d-man getting only 48.8% of his starts in the offensive zone.
In planning to limit the Avs’ marquee players, that has left an opportunity for Girard and the Avs’ secondary contributors to increase productivity. They haven’t disappointed, and Girard will have more opportunities against the Kraken tonight.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Darcy Kuemper ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
It took a handful of games, but Darcy Kuemper is starting to hit his stride with the Avs. He’ll hope to carry his good form into tonight’s contest against the Kraken.
After starting the season with losses in three of his first five games, Kuemper has responded by winning five of his next six. His save percentage is trending in the right direction, as Kuemper has stopped 94.3% of shots over his previous five starts. The Avs are playing solid defense in front of Kuemper, allowing six or fewer high-danger chances in seven of 13 games and 19 or fewer scoring opportunities in eight of 13.
The Avs have a strong defensive system in place in front of Kuemper that should help the netminder continue his progression. Kuemper is a top play on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
We’ve noted throughout today’s breakdown that today shapes up as a good spot for the Canucks. One of the beneficiaries will be Thatcher Demko, who is underrated on today’s DFS slates.
The Canucks netminder started the season off hot, going 3-1-1 in his first five games and stopping 92.4% of shots. However, things took a turn for the worse since then, with Demko winning just two of his next eight starts and watching his save percentage drop to 89.8% on the season. The pendulum has swung far enough, and it’s time to anticipate progression from Demko over his coming games. Demko is below career norms for save percentage and powerplay save percentage and should start to see improvements in his metrics.
Tonight is a good time to back Demko. He carries a low salary against a tired team and projects as one of the best goaltending options available.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are only so many combinations available with a two-game slate such as this one. Nevertheless, we’re taking a stance on the Canucks against the Jets on Friday night.
As noted, Pettersson is a top option up the middle, and there are several wingers that he pairs well with. According to our projections, Brock Boeser projects as the best option at wing. Boeser skates on the top line with Pettey and also spends time on the top powerplay unit. Quinn Hughes does everything for the Nucks and is worth including in any Canucks stack. Hughes is second on the team in points, leading Vancouver in assists and powerplay assists. Demko is the expected starter tonight; he should benefit from playing against a tired Jets team and should see his metrics progress.
The Canucks opened as underdogs but have been bet up to favorites, highlighting the betting confidence in Vancouver’s chances tonight. Based on our projections, their stack is one of the best options.
