The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Dylan Larkin ($5,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
There’s a can’t miss center worth rostering from the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings tonight, but it’s probably not who you think it is.
Dylan Larkin has been on an absolute tear for the Wings. The 25-year-old comes into tonight’s contest on a 10-game point streak, totaling 18 points. The Michigan-born center has the advanced metrics to support ongoing production, as he leads Wings’ forwards in scoring chances, high-danger opportunities, and Corsi rating.
Larkin is criminally undervalued at DK and could be considered a value play. Regardless of which platform you’re playing on, Larkin is worth the investment.
Top Value
Filip Chytil ($2,600 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
We’re digging deep into Friday’s slate for our value play at center, but we love the upside that Filip Chytil brings against the New Jersey Devils.
Analytically, Chytil has been one of the best New York Rangers forwards this season. The Czech forward ranks seventh on the team in expected goals-for percentage but is underachieving relative to his expected values. Chytil’s actual goals-for rating is 4.7% below expected, and he’s been on the ice for 21 goals compared to his 27.7 expected value. Chytil is on the cusp of breaking out, recording nine shots on target over his past four games, and we like him to have some puck luck tonight.
The Devils have been absolutely atrocious at preventing goals recently, allowing four or more in eight of their past 11. One of the many reasons we like Chytil to exceed his implied salary value.
Wing
Top Play
Nikita Kucherov ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
There’s been no slowing down the Lightning this season, and Nikita Kucherov is a big reason why. The former Hart Trophy recipient has nine multi-point games over his past 13 outings and should continue that elite output against the Red Wings tonight.
Kuch drives the Bolts offense, leading the team in expected goal-for rating. The underlying metrics contributing to his elite standing are noteworthy. Kucherov has a 58.1% Corsi rating 66.5% high-danger chances rating while getting 74.6% of his starts in the attacking zone. Individually, he’s a man-possessed averaging 3.8 shots and 4.1 scoring chances per game through 18 games this season.
Detroit goaltending has been questionable at best over their recent schedule, a weakness Kucherov and the Lightning can exploit.
Top Value
Jesper Bratt ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Jesper Bratt
Jesper Bratt isn’t exactly a household name, but he’s put forth some noteworthy performances this season. We like his fantasy ceiling against the Rangers tonight.
The Swedish forward is the scoring leader on an underwhelming Devils squad. This season, Bratt is averaging a point-per-game and is running hot over his last four games. Bratt has recorded 17 shots and seven points over that stretch, totaling 105.8 fantasy points. Those strong performances are validated with Bratt’s outstanding advanced metrics as he leads the Devils in several key categories, including Corsi rating, on-ice high-danger chances, and expected goals-for rating.
Despite his best efforts, the Columbus Blue Jackets held Bratt pointless last time out. We like him to find his way back onto the scoresheet tonight against the Rangers.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
We’ve been high on Kris Letang all season, and he continues to deliver. The veteran rearguard has 49 points through 52 games and should continue his solid play against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Letang is the Pittsburgh Penguins on-ice leader in scoring and high-danger chances by a substantial margin. The Pens deploy Letang with all their top scorers on the team’s top powerplay, giving him even-strength opportunities with elite offensive options, like Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Evgeni Malkin. Letang has made the most of that time, establishing an actual goals-for rating of 65.4%.
One of the factors contributing to Letang’s upside tonight is that he gets to shoot on the Canes’ backup tendy, Antti Raanta, after they elected to start primary Frederik Andersen last night. Letang should flourish tonight.
Top Value
Rasmus Dahlin ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
It’s hard to conceptualize, but the Buffalo Sabres have been playing an excellent offensive brand of hockey recently. We’re expecting that to lead to good things for Rasmus Dahlin against the Minnesota Wild.
As a team, the Sabres have attempted at least 10 high-danger chances at five-on-five in five straight games. That’s a good indicator for their most often used skater to continue his upward trend. Dahlin has recorded points in seven of his last nine games, delivering multiple shots on net in four of his past six. The former first overall selection ranks third in team scoring and gets the lion’s share of starts in the attacking zone.
Wild goaltending has been terrible over their current schedule. Only once have the Wild posted a save percentage above 88.2% over the past nine games, a good indicator Dahlin and the Sabres continue their improved offensive play.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
The Winnipeg Jets host the Dallas Stars tonight, and that’s a good sign that big things are coming from Connor Hellebuyck.
Hellebuyck has struggled with consistency this season, but we’ve seen great things from him at home. Eleven of Hellebuyck’s 18 wins have come at home this season, thanks to his improved save percentage and goals-against average, relative to his road splits. Historically, the former Vezina Trophy winner has had the Stars number, going 9-5-4 with a 92.1% save percentage and 2.55 goals-against average versus Dallas in his career.
According to our projections, Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies available on tonight’s slate, and he’s well-positioned to continue with his strong play at home.
Craig Anderson ($7,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Sabres goalie Craig Anderson is proving that age is just a number, as the 40-year-old continues his strong play. We like this spot for Anderson and the Sabres as they take on a well-traveled Wild team.
There are a few factors in play; the Wild come into tonight’s contest playing on the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Most of their recent schedule has been played as the visitors, with six of their past seven coming away from home. That’s had a negative impact on the Wild’s metrics, as they’ve attempted seven or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five over that span.
Anderson has been brilliant at home this season, posting a 94.1% save percentage. Although unsustainable, that’s unlikely to take a hit against a Wild team failing to generate any meaningful offense. The veteran netminder should reach his fantasy ceiling on Friday.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We’re taking a contrarian approach to today’s notable stack, highlighting an underdog Pittsburgh Penguins team that remains undervalued in the betting market.
Analytically, the Penguins have been one of the league’s best teams this season, which is illustrated over their recent sample. Pittsburgh has outplayed their opponents in seven straight games, which should mean sustained success for their offense. This season, Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust have been some of the Penguins’ best forwards, recording 52 and 44 points, respectively. Their play correlates well, as the forwards skate together on the Pens’ top line. Previously, we discussed the merits of including Kris Letang in your stack, and he’s a must-play on the back end of any Pittsburgh stack. After starting Tristan Jarry last night, Casey DeSmith is the projected starter tonight. DeSmith has stopped 93.8% of shots or more in four of his past five but remains below his career average, which means further progression is anticipated.
Based on our algorithm, the Penguins project as one of the top stacking options against the Canes.
