Since joining Fantasy Labs, the Trends tool has become my biggest guilty pleasure. Hours seem to fly by in my pursuit of knowing the ideal matchup plays for every relevant baseball player.
I was in the midst of researching trends for a piece about the top 10 DraftKings pitchers (don’t worry it’s still coming) when I discovered a topic that deserved to be featured.
As a Mets fan, the topic of Jacob deGrom is a personal favorite of mine. The Trends tool exposed that deGrom is stellar under certain circumstances – so good that by the end of this article, he might be one of your favorite pitchers too.
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year turned Cy Young candidate has posted splits that are unparalleled by any player near his caliber.
Let’s start by looking at deGrom’s home vs road splits:
Pitchers love the friendly confines of Citi Field, but none more than deGrom. Jacob has struck out more than a batter per inning and registered a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 home starts. No pitcher who has taken the mound 3+ times at Citi Field can compare to his success.
Here are the top performers at Citi Field (5+ and 10+ appearances, respectively):
The sample size differential on the left makes those results even more staggering. Also consider that deGrom has doubled his expected point total six times when pitching at home. That’s more than the starters on either list have combined to pitch over the last two seasons.
Let’s continue by looking at Vegas splits for deGrom:
If you’re looking for consistency, then look no further than deGrom when he’s pitching as a favorite. In his 11 starts as a home favorite, he’s scored fewer than 20 points on just one occasion (19.45) while surpassing the 30-point mark four times.
His average salary as a home favorite is $9,800, but deGrom has still managed to post a +/- of 12.85 thanks to his tremendous 30.05 average PPG. Look out for deGrom as a home favorite with an opponent projected run total under 3.5.
Now here is deGrom’s performance based on the quality of his opponent:
The two graphs work together to demonstrate deGrom’s success and struggles against his NL East opponents. He is especially dominant against his weaker division foes – combining to average 26.44 PPG and a 9.68 +/- in 14 career matchups against Atlanta, Miami and Philadelphia. On the other hand, he’s met his expected point total in just one out of his three starts against Washington.
To recap: deGrom as a home favorite against sub-.500 opponents that are projected for 3.5 runs or less:
The 2015 season has been a great sophomore campaign for deGrom as he builds on his Rookie of the Year season. The right-hander is averaging 23.52 points per start, which makes him the sixth-best pitcher on DraftKings this season.
The Mets have seven series coming up in the second half of the season with opponents that are currently on pace to fit this criteria. Set your calendars accordingly and prepare for deGromination.