Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cash Game Strategy
Dalvin Cook is the top projected player in our DK Showdown Models, with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott within tenths of a point. Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs are a notch below and there no viable punt plays guaranteed to see snaps among guys like C.J. Ham, Ameer Abdullah, etc., so the best bet is to optimize around Cook-Dak-Zeke by going with both kickers and one of the DSTs.
You can also go with Olabisi Johnson, Irv Smith and Laquon Treadwell, which gives you a chunk of the Vikings passing game. But I think it’s riskier because you’re also taking Cook out of the Captain spot, and Cook has never scored fewer than 13 DK points, while Dak did fall into the single digits once (at New Orleans in Week 4).
FanDuel’s scoring system gives Dak a 2-point edge in median projection, so he’s a better bet in the MVP spot there. Zeke and Cook both project to outscore Cousins, so you again have to fade the Vikings passing game and optimize. In this case, the top combination is Brett Maher and Kyle Rudolph, with Dan Bailey–Irv Smith coming in right behind it if you want to diversify.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings: Cook has finished with more than 25 DK points in six of nine games and has a 3-point edge over Zeke for the top ceiling projection in our Models. Cook’s usage in the passing game gives him the edge over Zeke, who was curiously shut out in that category last game.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: The absence of Vikings DT Linval Joseph will make life easier on Zeke and the running game.
WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings: Hopefully his dud last week depresses his ownership at least a tiny bit. The Cowboys are ranked just No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers, while Diggs is third in the league in air-yard share (41%), so Diggs has upside for a big bounce back.
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
- Gallup-Cobb +0.67
- Prescott-Cobb +0.63
- Prescott-Cooper +0.57
- Prescott-Gallup +0.50
- Elliott-Maher +0.47
- Prescott-Jarwin +0.45
- Cooper-Gallup +0.25
- Precott-Witten +0.15
- Cooper-Cobb +0.13
- Elliott-Cooper +0.02
- Prescott-Elliott -0.06
- Elliott-Pollard -0.12
- Gallup-Cowboys DST -0.17
- Prescott-Cowboys DST -0.25
- Gallup-Witten -0.34
- Cooper-Witten -0.48
- Elliott-Cobb -0.62
- Elliott-Gallup -0.70
The Gallup-Cobb pairing becomes a the more interesting with Amari Cooper banged up. Cooper is likely to play, and not as many Prescott stacks are likely to pair Gallup and Cobb while fading Cooper. The Gallup-Cobb pairing also serves as the best pass-game leverage on fading Zeke.
- Cousins-Johnson +0.47
- Cousins-Rudolph +0.45
- Cousins-Diggs +0.43
- Cousins-Smith +0.42
- Cook-Vikings DST +0.36
- Cousins-Vikings +0.24
- Cousins-Bailey +0.21
- Cook-Mattison +0.26
- Cook-Johnson +0.21
- Cousins-Cook -0.08
- Cook-Rudolph -0.23
- Cousins-Mattison -0.28
- Cook-Diggs -0.41
- Mattison-Rudolph -0.49
Cook will likely be the highest owned player on the slate, but his top pairing (Vikings DST) likely won’t be one of the highest owned combos and could pay off, especially given that Mike Zimmer is 19-11 against the spread as a road underdog, according to our Bet Labs data.
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Because Rudolph is only likely to come into fantasy success by way of a red-zone TD or negative game script for the Vikings, his negative correlation correlations to the Vikings run game are likely to hold. He has a strong positive correlation with fellow tight end Smith, who should see a lot of action with Adam Thielen (hamstring) out, and most entrants won’t pair the two together, which could further increase the leverage here.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Olabisi Johnson, Vikings: Has a stronger correlation to Cousins than Diggs and has run a route on 85% or more of the team’s pass plays in each of the past two weeks.
- TE Irv Smith, Vikings: Has run a route on 59% or more of Minnesota’s pass plays in each of the past three weeks.
- TE Blake Jarwin, Cowboys: This is not the Giants, who Jarwin has scored five of his six career TDs against, but opponents enter the week having completed 59 passes to tight ends against Minnesota, second-highest in the league.
- RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys: Has seemingly reentered the rotation with 5.5 carries and 1.5 targets per game over his last two.
- FB C.J. Ham, Vikings: Has two four-target games and four games with at least two.
- RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings: Playing time dipped to six snaps last week
- WR Tavon Austin, Cowboys: Has run under 20% of the routes in each of the past two weeks but could see a slight bump with Cooper banged up.
- RB Ameer Abdullah, Vikings: Out-snapped Mattison last week, 9-6, but has never seen more than 10 in a game this season.
- WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings: Has run between 15-28% of the routes over the past three games but is one of the lowest upside receivers in football.
- RB Mike Boone, Vikings: Special teamer who would have upside if he gets touches, but only has three all season.
- WR Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys: Special-teamer who is fifth on the WR depth chart.
- WR Ventell Bryant, Cowboys: Special teamer.
- FB Jamize Olawale, Cowboys: Blocker.
- TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys: Blocker.
- TE Tyler Conklin, Vikings: Blocker.
Pictured above: Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (34)
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.