The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels at Philadelphia Eagles – $7,000 on DraftKings
The four teams in this year’s Conference Championships each have a superstar QB, so any one of them can be a foundation for your lineup. Of the four, though, Daniels has the highest ceiling projection in an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon and THE BLITZ.
Daniels and the Commanders will be on the road for a third straight playoff game, but they’ve been on an impressive run, knocking off the Bucs and Lions the last two weeks. Daniels had 22.32 DraftKings points against Tampa and 25.1 DraftKings points against the Lions last week. With the exception of the game he left early in Week 18, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games while carrying a huge workload both as rusher and passer.
He hasn’t run for a touchdown in his last six games but did rack up 51 rushing yards on 16 attempts against the Lions. He has at least nine rush attempts in each of his last six full games and went off for a career-high 127 rushing yards in a win over the Falcons in Week 17.
Against the Eagles this year, Daniels produced 36.4 DraftKings points in the Commanders’ win and 14.4 DraftKings points in his team’s loss. The Eagles defense has been exceptional in its first two games of the playoffs, but they did let Matthew Stafford move the ball on them once the snow slowed down.
Especially if the Commanders have to be aggressive while playing from behind, Daniels should be set for another big game, and his dual-threat potential stands out in this contest, especially if Jalen Hurts (knee) is at less than 100% of his usual mobility.
Top Value: Patrick Mahomes vs. Buffalo Bills – $6,000 on DraftKings
Mahomes is the cheapest QB on the slate this weekend–yes, you read that right. The three-time Super Bowl Champion, three-time Super Bowl MVP, and six-time Pro Bowler has led his team to seven straight AFC Championship games, but he’s still the cheapest option of the weekend.
While I actually think he’s priced properly, he brings a ton of value potential since he has a high ceiling as a proven playoff performer. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in the aggregate projections and the third-highest median, ceiling and floor projections at the position since Jalen Hurts is so high-risk.
Because of all the Chiefs’ narrow wins this year, his stats were solid not spectacular. In his 17 games in the regular season and playoffs, he has averaged 241.5 passing yards per game with 27 passing touchdowns, two rushing scores, and an average of 18.6 DraftKings points per week.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two regular-season contests but only had 12.48 DraftKings points last week against the Texans when he only had 177 passing yards and a touchdown. As has often been the case all season, Mahomes’ final stats were not impressive, but he made the plays he needed to in order to get his team the victory.
The only game Mahomes started and lost this season came against the Bills. He had three passing touchdowns in his first matchup with the Bills this season, totaling 17.8 DraftKings points.
He may not have quite as high a ceiling as the rushing quarterbacks, but getting him so much cheaper allows more space to stack stars in other spots, and he is definitely a proven playoff winner.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Washington Commanders – $8,600 on DraftKings
Barkley has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back in the three-way aggregated projections this week, and it isn’t even especially close. No other running back has a ceiling projection that is half as much as Barkley’s, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position by a wide margin.
Last week against the Rams, Barkley frolicked in the snow on his way to 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns for a massive 42.2 DraftKings points. Barkley sat out Week 18 against the Giants but has over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and six of his last nine.
Barkley had 19.2 and 20.2 DraftKings points in his two regular-season matchups with the Commanders, but Washington’s run defense has struggled lately, allowing eight running back touchdowns in their last five games and giving up over 100 rushing yards to the position in four of those five contests as well.
As we were reminded last week against the Rams, Barkley has breakaway potential on every touch, and he should be the focus of the offense this week against Washington. With Jalen Hurts potentially less mobile, Barkley could get more work near the goal line as well, boosting his ceiling even higher.
Top Value: Austin Ekeler at Philadelphia Eagles – $5,300 on DraftKings
Ekeler brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back and offers a nice price break from the top options just behind Saquon. The veteran missed the month of December with a concussion but has returned to a significant enough role to be a fantasy factor to consider this week.
Last week against the Lions, Ekeler played 37.3% of snaps for the Commanders and hauled in all four of his targets for 41 receiving yards while also rushing six times for 47 more yards. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the second straight week and remains involved as a pass-catching option out of the backfield.
Unlike the other non-starting running backs, his production isn’t touchdown-dependent, and he can have a big week even if he doesn’t find the end zone. In his only matchup against the Eagles this season, he did just that, posting 17.6 DraftKings points without a touchdown by hauling in eight catches for 89 yards.
Especially if the Commanders are playing from behind and have to throw the ball more, Ekeler should be a key contributor again on Sunday. He’s a great value play at running back and brings both a high ceiling and a high floor.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Terry McLaurin at Philadelphia Eagles – $6,700 on DraftKings
Many of the big-name receivers have exited the playoffs already, leaving Scary Terry and A.J. Brown as the only two options over $6,000. McLaurin has the highest floor and ceiling projections in the aggregate projections, and he’s a great option to stack with Daniels since he’s the go-to option on deep passes and around the goal line.
McLaurin has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games with over 18 DraftKings points in each of those games, and he has at least 17 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight contests.
In his first game against the Eagles, he was held to just one catch for 10 yards, but he bounced back with five catches for 60 yards, a touchdown, and 17 DraftKings points in their rematch. That touchdown was one of his nine touchdown catches in his eight most recent games. McLaurin has multiple red zone targets in each of the Commanders’ two playoff games, and he’ll again have a good chance of getting into the end zone this week.
Both star receivers bring good upside, but since the Eagles have more options in their offense, McClaurin is a safer play since the targets are almost certain to be there for him on Sunday.
Top Value: Xavier Worthy vs. Houston Texans – $5,500 on DraftKings
For the second straight week, rookie Xavier Worthy stands out as an excellent play for the Chiefs. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at wide receiver in the aggregated projections by a wide margin. Worthy actually has the highest median projection of all receivers on the slate, even though he only has the fifth-highest salary.
Last week, he hauled in five of six targets for 45 yards and 8.7 DraftKings points. Before that, Worthy exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three regular-season games, not counting Week 18 against the Broncos. He had over 19 DraftKings points in his previous three games, totaling 31 targets with 21 catches for 190 total yards and two touchdowns.
While Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins were both available, Worthy was second on the team in targets against the Texans, behind only Travis Kelce. Worthy is clearly the top wide receiver right now and also the team’s home-run threat. Look for him and Mahomes to try to get on the same page early and often against the Texans this Sunday.
If you need cheaper options, Dyami Brown and Keon Coleman are solid bargain values to consider. Each brings upside but doesn’t have as regular a role as Worthy’s with the Chiefs.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Buffalo Bills – $6,000 on DraftKings
The Chiefs in the playoffs means Mahomes to Kelce. Even though the veteran’s season totals weren’t quite at his lofty expectations, he was back in “playoff mode” last week and went off for 117 yards, a touchdown, and 27.7 DraftKings points against the Texans.
Kelce has definitely had plenty of targets in his last few games, averaging 8.7 targets in his last seven games. He finished the year with 97 receptions for 823 yards and three touchdowns in 16 games for an average of 12.5 DraftKings points per game during the regular season.
Against the Bills in the regular season, he was held to just two catches for eight yards, and the Chiefs will need him to be much more involved this week in the rematch. He’s a good pay-up play at the position since he brings the top median, ceiling, and floor projections this week while also bringing the top Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends.
Top Value: Dalton Kincaid at Kansas City Chiefs – $3,600 on DraftKings
Of the four starting tight ends, Kincaid is the cheapest play on the board, but he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all options except for Kelce and his salary is $2,400 lower than the Chiefs’ superstar.
Kincaid didn’t have the breakthrough many were predicting this year for him in Buffalo, but he is regularly involved in the passing game. Since returning from injury, he had multiple catches in four straight games before coming up with just one catch for 11 yards last week against the Ravens.
The Chiefs have been a great matchup for tight ends this season, allowing an average of 70 receiving yards per game and a total of five tight end touchdowns. Kincaid did not play in their first meeting this year, but Dawson Knox filled in and had four catches on six targets for 40 yards.
Based on the matchup and his involvement, Kincaid brings a lot of boom-or-bust potential this weekend. He’s a high-risk flier, but his salary is low enough that it unlocks lots of potential. If he gets enough targets, he could end up being the key differentiator in this week’s contests.