The Philadelphia Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 8-0, and they’ll look to remain perfect against their NFC East division rivals on Monday Night Football. They are double-digit home favorites against the Washington Commanders, and the game total sits at 43.5 points.
In their first meeting, the Eagles won 24-8 as they held the Commanders scoreless for the first 58 minutes! The Commanders are outmatched, but we’ll see if they can keep this game close.
With Carson Wentz on the IR, Taylor Heinicke has led the Commanders to wins in two of their last three games. Heinicke has equivalent stats to Wentz this season, with a slightly higher completion percentage. With both teams heavily relying on the rushing attack, this division battle could become a slugfest. Let’s find a few player props and look into the game total as we pick a same-game parlay for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Eagles vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Jahan Dotson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
When looking at the ParlayIQ, this Jahan Dotson prop stood out the most as it went over the prop line in a game-high 61% of the simulations. Dotson returns to action tonight after a hamstring injury kept him out of the lineup for five-straight weeks. It has been so long that he’s yet to play a snap with Heinicke at quarterback.
In the first four games that Dotson played, the rookie scored four touchdowns and averaged 38 receiving yards per game. He went over this prop in all but one game: their previous matchup against the Eagles. In that game, the Commanders’ offense didn’t score a touchdown until 1:55 left in the game.
With most of the attention shifting towards Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, Dotson will likely get a few extra targets from Heinicke. Through the first four games that Dotson played, he led the team in receiving touchdowns and only saw five fewer targets than McLaurin. This receiving line is too low for this stud rookie.
Game Total Under 43.5 Points
Some strong trends point toward this game going under the 43.5-point total. Not only did their first meeting go under and total just 32 points, but the Commanders’ defense forced a season-high six Eagles punts. Divisional unders are also 57-33 since the start of 2021, including 21-6 this season.
The Eagles have the fifth-highest run rate in the league, which takes into account quarterback Jalen Hurts rushing attempts as well. He is on pace for a career-high in rushing attempts and touchdowns. With Heinicke playing quarterback, the Commanders have the seventh-highest run rate over the last three weeks.
All three of the Monday Night Football division games this season have gone under the point total. Even six of the Commanders’ last seven games have gone under. Despite 43.5 points being a low total, there are too many trends guiding us to the under in this spot.
Miles Sanders Over 68.5 Rushing Yards
After failing to score a touchdown in 12 games last season, Eagles running back Miles Sanders has already matched his career-high with six touchdowns in eight games. He is averaging 82 rushing yards per game and has gone over this rushing yards prop in three-straight games and six of his eight games this season.
Sanders has recorded 78+ rushing yards in seven of his last nine games with the Eagles as home favorites. The Eagles play a three-man committee backfield, but Sanders is still their number one running back, doubling up every other running back in snap percentage. Sanders also has double-digit rushing attempts in all but one game.
Taking Sanders to score a touchdown felt too risky, but he has scored in each of the Eagles’ last three games. They have no problem sitting on a lead and using Sanders to wear down opposing defenses. He failed to reach this prop line in their last matchup against the Commanders, but he’ll get there this time around.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +733, while FanDuel is offering +615. The selected parlay hit in 12% of the sims, providing a good amount of value.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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