The second major and subsequent Millionaire Maker has come and gone for the 2022 season as Justin Thomas took down Will Zalatoris in the aggregate three-hole playoff on Sunday at Southern Hills. It all came together, though, due to the collapse of Mito Pereira on the 72nd hole after he put his drive into the water, leading to a double-bogey and his missing the playoff by one shot. All three players will tee it up this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge as a rare strong field following a major is set to play Colonial Country Club starting on Thursday morning.
We have five of the top 10 players in the world in a smaller, 120-man field this week, which will lead to more than half of the players making the cut. In turn, that is likely to lead to a higher 6/6 percentage this week and puts a greater emphasis on being unique in lineups for large-field GPPs.
DraftKings has their main contest back to the $20 Pitch + Putt with $250,000 to first out of a $1,000,000 prize pool. This GPP will be our main focus as we begin to look at building lineups this week.
As always, you can find some of our expert’s favorite plays, both GPP and cash games, here on FantasyLabs.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
Now is a great time to get on board as the golf season ramps into the back half of the season!
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Will Zalatoris $10,100
If you’ve been following along in this article this season, you know I like to play the ownership game at the top of the board. Many people seem to be making a presumption that Will Zalatoris and, to a lesser extent, Justin Thomas will have trouble getting back up for another tournament after their battle at Southern Hills. I will allow them to speculate while I take on a player that should be a great fit for this course with his elite ball-striking and iron play.
We all know that he can struggle on the greens, but we have seen many poor putters find success at this event, with players like Kyle Stanley and Emiliano Grillo finding success at Colonial Country Club. A lot of things seem to line up well for Zalatoris this week, and he is clearly in good form, which makes him being at half of the ownership of Hovland, Spieth, and Morikawa all the more perplexing.
Max Homa $9,400
I will be doing my best this week to jam in two to three players from this tier as I see enough value down low to build a stars and scrubs lineup. Max Homa is the player that jumps out as the best in my personal model, but also in the Bailey Model as one to creep into the upper echelon of this field.
His ball-striking is what makes him attractive, in a similar way to Zalatoris, as we can expect him to be sharp in those metrics, especially with his irons. Homa has gained strokes on approach in seven consecutive measured tournaments and at least four shots in the category in each of his last four events.
He is building himself into a top-tier player, and with another ball-striking course on tap, this should fit right into his mold. I will be careful not to put the popular Homa in too many builds alongside chalk, but he can fit nicely with a pivot like Zalatoris.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Talor Gooch $8,900
As I mentioned above, I want to jam in the top tier as I see things falling off in this range. I would really include Talor Gooch in the group above as he fits for me as someone with as much ceiling as those in the upper prices. Building with these three as a starting point keeps us at $7,200 per player for the back half of our lineup and really gives us a lot of upside in GPPs.
This will be Gooch’s fifth trip to Colonial Country Club, and he is steadily improving with his results on this course. He finished T14 last year, and I expect he may now be positioned for a top 10 type of finish. He comes in off of a T20 at the PGA Championship, his second top 20 major finish of the year, where he gained eight shots on that elite field tee to green.
I expect we see him continue to build off of those results, and his ownership should stay in the low teens at worst with some of the chalk surrounding him.
Webb Simpson $8,700
Wash, rinse, and repeat from above. I want the upper class of this range, and I’ll take the speculation on Webb Simpson that he is past his injury and returning to form. He certainly showed that to be the case on Saturday at the PGA Championship as he put together one of the rounds of the day and was scoring on a course that many others were happy to find par.
He should be tailor-made for this track with his ability to hit fairways and greens, which could put him in the mix over the weekend. I think we are still getting some ownership discount due to the aforementioned injury, but I’ll gladly take it, especially at half of the run of Tommy Fleetwood just above.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Rickie Fowler $7,400
I am not a Rickie Fowler truther, and really, most would say I am on the opposite end of that spectrum, but for the first time in a long time, I am bullish on Fowler this week. I think he makes for a really solid GPP play just below a super popular range at the upper end of the $7,000s.
Fowler is coming into this week off of a T23 finish at the PGA, making it consecutive top-25 results for him. He has now gained shots on approach in five straight events and put together more than nine shots gained tee-to-green last week. Rickie seems to be coming into some form, and at this price tag and projected ownership, we can get a lot of value on a player that has a lot of experience around this track.
Joel Dahmen $7,200
You’re going to have to stick with me on this one because the numbers for Joel Dahmen last week at the PGA were nothing short of ugly. He lost 3.5 strokes to the field on approach, some more off the tee, and more again on the greens. It was a bad week all around for Dahmen, but he also got the short end of the draw. He was stuck in the bad weather and clearly didn’t handle it well despite some solid form coming into the week. The thing I like about Dahmen this week is his low price and ownership, but strong upside and bounce-back ability.
Over the past 12 months, Dahmen has lost shots on approach in six tournaments, every time in that stretch, he bounced back with a positive result in the next tournament. Half of those comeback events saw him gain better than two shots on that field on approach, and for a player at 2% ownership with two top-20 finishes at this event, he makes for a great large-field GPP play.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Beau Hossler $6,500
Hossler has been starting to show the form to round into the player that many thought he could be coming out of Texas. He was able to make it through to the weekend at the PGA, though he ended up towards the bottom of the field in the end. I’m still taking a shot on him despite his horrible iron stats because these Texas guys just seem to step up in their home state. Hossler’s best finish of the year came in Texas at the Valero, where he was in a position to win, and I won’t be surprised to see his name around the top 25 again this weekend.
Adam Svensson $6,100
I’ll go the other way from Hossler here with a guy that can be a pure ball-striker when his game is on, but we know there are likely to be issues on the green. Adam Svensson fits a similar but lesser mold to the Kyle Stanley and Emiliano Grillo comparison I made above, as his iron play can be remarkably elite. He has shown in multiple times this year, and one was at a good comp course at the Sony Open, where he finished in the top 10. His price allows me to take the risk of the bad, but the potential for rare elite upside is the most important aspect of the game around Colonial Country Club.