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British Open PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The Open Championship — formerly known as the British Open — returns to the birthplace of golf to play the 150th edition of the tournament.

Outside of Augusta National, the Old Course at St. Andrews has hosted the most major championships (29) of any course in the history of golf. The first major at St. Andrews took place in 1873.

The Old Course at St. Andrews is a par 72 measuring 7,297 yards, making it only 350 yards longer than it was over a century ago. The course still plays just about the same as it did since its inception, which is rare in today’s game with all technological advancements.

There are 156 players in the field this week, with the top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. As expected, almost all of the world’s top players will be in attendance seeking a highly coveted Claret Jug.

As Jack Nicklaus once said, “If you’re gonna be a player that’s gonna be remembered, you must win at St. Andrews.”

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

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Real-time DFS models

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Strokes Gained: Approach

The most important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach. St. Andrews isn’t overly long, and golfers with all types of skillsets should be in play. The one statistic that golfers cannot compete without this week is strong approach play. The Old Course requires strategy, and the players need to hit their spots.

  • High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,100 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
  • Mid-range target: Max Homa— $7,900 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
  • Value target: Erik Van Rooyen— $6,700 (19th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Par 4

The Old Course at St. Andrews has a unique layout with only two Par 5’s and two Par 3’s on the course. Players must play the fourteen Par 4’s efficiently to capture the Claret Jug.

  • High-end target: Rory McIlroy $11,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 4)
  • Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $8,400 (4th Strokes Gained: Par 4)
  • Value target: Seamus Power— $7,400 (10th Strokes Gained: Par 4)

Three-Putt Avoidance

The greens at St. Andrews are massive. Lag putting will be a significant factor, and golfers must keep three-putts off the card if they want to contend.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas $10,500 (11th Three-Putt Avoidance)
  • Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $8,400 (1st Three-Putt Avoidance)
  • Value target: Hao Tong Li— $6,900 (7th Three-Putt Avoidance)

Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)

The wind will always be a factor when playing in an Open Championship. Even if the wind speed doesn’t get extremely high, it will still be a factor in club selection and execution.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas— $10,500 (1st Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)
  • Mid-range target: Cameron Smith— $9,500 (2nd Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)
  • Value target: Mito Pereira— $7,300 (11th Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)

Strokes Gained: Putting

Good putters tend to win Open Championships at St. Andrews. Adding putting to the model will help to eliminate golfers who won’t be able to hole enough putts to contend.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas— $10,500 (11th Strokes Gained: Putting)
  • Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood— $8,600 (4th Strokes Gained: Putting)
  • Value target: Lucas Herbert— $6,900— (1st Strokes Gained: Putting)
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The Open Championship — formerly known as the British Open — returns to the birthplace of golf to play the 150th edition of the tournament.

Outside of Augusta National, the Old Course at St. Andrews has hosted the most major championships (29) of any course in the history of golf. The first major at St. Andrews took place in 1873.

The Old Course at St. Andrews is a par 72 measuring 7,297 yards, making it only 350 yards longer than it was over a century ago. The course still plays just about the same as it did since its inception, which is rare in today’s game with all technological advancements.

There are 156 players in the field this week, with the top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. As expected, almost all of the world’s top players will be in attendance seeking a highly coveted Claret Jug.

As Jack Nicklaus once said, “If you’re gonna be a player that’s gonna be remembered, you must win at St. Andrews.”

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Strokes Gained: Approach

The most important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach. St. Andrews isn’t overly long, and golfers with all types of skillsets should be in play. The one statistic that golfers cannot compete without this week is strong approach play. The Old Course requires strategy, and the players need to hit their spots.

  • High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,100 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
  • Mid-range target: Max Homa— $7,900 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
  • Value target: Erik Van Rooyen— $6,700 (19th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Par 4

The Old Course at St. Andrews has a unique layout with only two Par 5’s and two Par 3’s on the course. Players must play the fourteen Par 4’s efficiently to capture the Claret Jug.

  • High-end target: Rory McIlroy $11,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 4)
  • Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $8,400 (4th Strokes Gained: Par 4)
  • Value target: Seamus Power— $7,400 (10th Strokes Gained: Par 4)

Three-Putt Avoidance

The greens at St. Andrews are massive. Lag putting will be a significant factor, and golfers must keep three-putts off the card if they want to contend.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas $10,500 (11th Three-Putt Avoidance)
  • Mid-range target: Tony Finau— $8,400 (1st Three-Putt Avoidance)
  • Value target: Hao Tong Li— $6,900 (7th Three-Putt Avoidance)

Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)

The wind will always be a factor when playing in an Open Championship. Even if the wind speed doesn’t get extremely high, it will still be a factor in club selection and execution.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas— $10,500 (1st Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)
  • Mid-range target: Cameron Smith— $9,500 (2nd Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)
  • Value target: Mito Pereira— $7,300 (11th Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)

Strokes Gained: Putting

Good putters tend to win Open Championships at St. Andrews. Adding putting to the model will help to eliminate golfers who won’t be able to hole enough putts to contend.

  • High-end target: Justin Thomas— $10,500 (11th Strokes Gained: Putting)
  • Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood— $8,600 (4th Strokes Gained: Putting)
  • Value target: Lucas Herbert— $6,900— (1st Strokes Gained: Putting)
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About the Author

Matt Vincenzi has been writing about golf betting and DFS for four years and has a masters degree in education. He’s been a guest on ESPN radio and Fox Sports radio to discuss golf betting.