The PGA TOUR moves to the second event in the FedExCup Playoffs, heading from Memphis, Tennessee, to Baltimore, Maryland, for this week’s BMW Championship. The top 50 in the FedExCup standings qualified for this event, with only Sepp Straka opting out, leaving 49 top players in the field ready to battle their way into the top 30 for next week’s playoff finale at the TOUR Championship.
Last week’s big win for Justin Rose brought plenty of drama, and this week’s elite field in a no-cut event should once again lead to plenty of drama. While the field is full of familiar faces, they’ll be taking on a new course at the Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills. This course was used in 2021 for the BMW Championship but played as a par 72 instead of a par 70, and the course is 60 yards longer. To find out more about the course and the field, as well as some top stats to target, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Rory McIlroy $11,400
Scottie Scheffler ($13,400) has the highest ownership projection on the board along with the top projections across the board and the shortest odds to win and to finish in the top 10. However, he’s also the most expensive player by a wide margin. If you’re looking for a pivot play, Rory makes sense and saves $2,000 to spend on the rest of your roster.
Rory finished fourth in 2021 at this venue, although as noted above, many things about the course have changed after the most recent renovation. It should still be a good track for players who excel with their drivers and have plenty of distance, pointing to Rory as a good fit still.
Last week, Rory was the only player who qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs who sat out the event in Memphis, and he hasn’t played for a few weeks after a T7 at The Open Championship. That result was his fourth straight top-20 after missing the cut at the RBC Canadian Open. In hist last 16 rounds across those four tournaments, he ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained and seventh in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
He matches 10 Pro Trends this week, the second-most of any golfer in the field, and he has an ownership projection almost 15% lower than Scottie’s. He’s a solid way to differentiate your lineup if you can make his salary work. He’s at higher risk since he didn’t play last week, but his upside on this course is extremely high.
Cameron Young $9,800
Young finally broke through for his first PGA TOUR win with a dominating showing at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago, and he followed that up with a solid solo fifth-place finish last week at TPC Southwind.
Young’s salary this week is just under $10,000, but that increase keeps his ownership projection remarkably low as the public chases more established names like Collin Morikawa ($9,600) and Russell Henley ($9,700). However, even though he didn’t play this event in 2021, he does bring a high ceiling since he comes in with so much momentum.
Over the last eight rounds, Young leads this entire elite field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is second in Total Strokes Gained. Zooming out, he ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 30 rounds, second in Strokes Gained: Putting, and ninth in Total Strokes Gained.
He finished last week’s event with a 64 on Sunday, which was the lowest round of the day. He comes in with plenty of momentum and is looking to prove he’s ready to contend on the biggest stages now that he’s picked up that elusive first victory.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
