Another division game awaits us this Monday night with an AFC North clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. With every team in the division already at three losses, this is a huge game for both teams. The Bengals are three-point road favorites going into the Dawg Pound, which should be an electric atmosphere.
Points scored don’t immediately come to mind when thinking about these two squads. However, both the Browns and Bengals are averaging over 24 points per game this season, and the game total sits at 45.5 points. We’ve had some low-scoring primetime games this season, so I don’t think anyone would say no to a shootout.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Browns vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown
It is rare to find a true bell-cow running back in today’s game. However, Bengals running back Joe Mixon definitely fits that bill. He ranks fifth among all running backs in snap share, playing on 73.1% of the Bengals’ offensive plays. Mixon also has a 13.3% target share, as he has at least three targets in every game this season.
With Ja’Marr Chase out for this game, expect a heavy dose of Mixon both on the ground and through the air. Being a three-point favorite also benefits Mixon’s usage. He has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the Bengals’ last 15 regular season games when favored.
This is a great matchup to target the Bengals’ offense. The Browns’ defense ranks 28th in total DVOA this season, allowing 26.6 points per game. Through seven weeks, Mixon leads the league in rushing attempts from inside the 10 and 5-yard line, and with an implied total of 24.5 points, he will get plenty of opportunities to score a touchdown.
Joe Mixon Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Not only are we taking Mixon’s anytime touchdown prop, but we are going to correlate that with the over on his rushing prop. The props on the other Bengals’ skill players are too inflated with the Chase news, but this rushing prop feels achievable for Mixon. He hit the over on this prop line last season against the Browns on only 13 carries.
The Bengals rank 25th in run rate this season at 36.9%, but with Chase out and playing such a poor run defense, expect Mixon to get fed the ball early and often. This Browns defense has allowed 135.6 rushing yards per game, compared to only 210.4 passing yards. They can be beaten on the ground.
Backup running back Samaje Perine has just seven rushing attempts in the Bengals’ last four games. They are leaning really heavily on Mixon to carry the load, who ranks fourth among all running backs with 87.1% of his team’s carries. Taking Mixon’s over on his rushing yards prop and an anytime touchdown sets us up nicely for this three-leg parlay.
Game Total Over 45.5 Points
Primetime unders have been successful this season, but we’re correlating Mixon’s big game with the over in this contest. Eight of the last nine matchups between the Bengals and Browns have gone over the total points line.
Losing Chase will hurt the Bengals, but a balanced attack may be better for quarterback Joe Burrow. This offense is starting to heat up, as they have won four of their last five games while scoring 27.2 points per game. This offense can light up the scoreboard.
The Browns are led by Nick Chubb, who leads the league in rushing yards and has already broken off eight 20+ yard runs this season. Despite a 2-5 record, this Browns offense has averaged 24 points per game. Both teams average a combined total of 48.7 points per game, while they both rank inside the top 10 in yards per game. This isn’t the same slugfest Bengals and Browns rivalry game, and each team can help push this total to go over the line.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +212, but FanDuel is offering +289. That’s a good bit of value for this three-leg parlay.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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