Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done picks are now live, and this is the first Signature Event of the 2026 season.
There is a $20 million total purse with $3.6 million going to the winner. That makes it the biggest prize of the season so far, but there are still about six events that have higher purses with more going to first place.
Top AT&T Pebble Beach One and Done Picks
With Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both in the field, the odds board looks loaded at the top. Justin Rose leads the second tier after his Farmers win two weeks ago and his 2023 Pebble Beach victory.
On the surface, it’s a reasonable spot to grab one of those elite options and move on.
However, that could be a mistake.
The First “Signature Event Trap” of the Season
This is the first big purse of the season, which makes it feel like a natural spot to spend a premium asset.
At the same time, there are still at least six bigger events ahead. The three player-hosted Signature Events carry larger first-place prizes, as do the Players, Masters, and U.S. Open.
Spending Scheffler, Rory, or even Tommy Fleetwood here locks them in at a lower leverage spot than those tournaments. Even if one of them wins, the decision costs you flexibility when the highest payout weeks arrive.
As a result, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am presents the same use-or-save decision point as previous weeks, although the cut-off point has moved up.
Even with the larger purse, several golfers near the top of the odds board are players you are very likely to want later, when prize money increases further, and each pick carries more weight.
How to Know Which Golfers to Use or Save
Most One and Done players look at odds, recent results, and course history, then settle on a favorite.
That ignores the most important factor in One and Done pools, which is context.
Questions that matter include how large your pool is, how payouts are structured, how many total events are included, and how valuable the remaining tournaments are relative to this one.
The wrong decision at the first Signature Event can quietly shape your season months down the line.
Answer That Question With the One and Done Picks Tool
PoolGenius built the Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer to help answer the recurring use vs. save decision.
The tool pulls the most important inputs into one place and turns them into weekly pick grades and a season-level plan tailored to your specific pool settings.
It accounts for pool size and payout structure, purse size and future value, win odds and performance trends, and projected pick popularity to help identify chalk and leverage.
Try it out ahead of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a free trial.
No credit card required.
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What the Tool Shows for AT&T Pebble Beach Picks
For standard One and Done pools that include roughly 30 to 31 events and more than 100 entries, the strategy this week is fairly consistent.
Save Your Top Golfers
Saving the very top of the board is usually the disciplined move. Golfers like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Tommy Fleetwood all offer strong win equity, but they are also players you are very likely to want later when the schedule reaches its highest payout events.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am currently ranks 7th in total prize money on the PGA Tour calendar. In many pool formats, that makes it a suboptimal spot to spend elite season-long assets, even with the larger purse.
The Justin Rose Decision
Justin Rose is projected to be the most popular pick this week by a significant margin. He won at the Farmers two weeks ago, won Pebble Beach in 2023, and sits in the top tier of win odds.
The case for Rose is strong. He brings legitimate win equity and course comfort.
The case against Rose comes down to popularity and future value. In larger pools, high ownership can turn an otherwise solid pick into a neutral or negative expected value play. Additionally, while Rose is not in the same tier as Scheffler or Rory, he is still a golfer you may want to keep for higher-leverage spots when fewer people are backing him.
Who to Pick Instead
Instead, this is a week to target golfers who still offer upside at Pebble Beach without sacrificing future flexibility.
- Xander Schauffele is acceptable to use this week if you want to spend a premium asset while preserving Scheffler and Rory. He offers very good (but not elite) win odds without the same future value concerns.
- Maverick McNealy fits into the ideal future value range for a tournament of this size and brings legitimate win equity without long-term opportunity cost. He is coming off two straight top 15 finishes and profiles well at Pebble Beach.
- Patrick Cantlay pairs consistent Signature Event performance with a season profile that makes him easier to deploy here than the absolute elites. We project him to draw lower ownership than Rose or other chalk options.
- Jason Day checks all the boxes this week. He has fine odds, good course history at Pebble Beach, and decent recent performances. Day is very much a future value savings play, making him a fine play if you are looking to save the big names.
Get Your Golf One and Done Cheat Sheet Now
PoolGenius is designed to make Golf One and Done pools simpler, faster, and more structured.
Once you enter your pool details, the optimizer guides your weekly decisions while the season planner shows the downstream impact of using a golfer now versus saving him for later.
You can follow the top pick grades directly or use the popularity and season views to decide when to lean into chalk and when to pivot.
The biggest edge is clarity. Each pick fits into a broader plan instead of treating every tournament like it exists in isolation.
Grab your free trial today. No credit card required.
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Interested in trying PGA DFS? Check out FantasyLabs’ PGA DFS sims and everything else FantasyLabs has to offer.
Pictured: Patrick Cantlay
Photo Credit: Imagn
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