The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with stud pitchers, with four possessing salaries of at least $12,000 on DraftKings:
Luis Severino headlines the group at $13,100 on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. Their projected lineup has struggled with a 27.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Severino’s K Prediction of 8.7 is the top mark on the slate. He also ranks tied for first in opponent implied run total (3.0) and second in moneyline odds (-222), and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically been awesome values (per the Trends tool):
Severino has matched for this trend on only one previous occasion, but he dominated with 30.5 DraftKings points and a +9.57 Plus/Minus.
Severino is in elite recent form, limiting his past two opponents to an average batted-ball distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 23%. All three of those numbers represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages, and factoring a comparable distance differential into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +6.71. He deserves to be treated as the top pitcher on the slate, especially on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Corey Kluber is the reigning AL Cy Young winner and putting together another strong campaign. He owns a career-best 2.10 ERA through his first 16 starts and boasts a sterling 11-3 record. His only blemish is a slight dip in K/9, but his mark of 9.11 still gives him plenty of upside.
However, Kluber has arguably the toughest matchup among the stud pitchers against the St. Louis Cardinals. Their projected lineup has a .329 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.3 runs is higher than usual for a pitcher with Kluber’s salary. His K Prediction of 8.1 puts him behind Severino. The weather in St. Louis could also be an issue: There is currently a 37% chance of precipitation at game time, which likely makes Kluber best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Charlie Morton may not have the same pedigree as Severino and Kluber, but he’s been as good as anyone in 2018. He is sporting career best marks in both ERA (2.74) and K/9 (11.06) and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.58 on DraftKings through his first 15 starts.
He has the top Vegas data among today’s starters, ranking first in moneyline odds (-262) and tied for first in opponent implied team total. He’s also posted impressive Statcast numbers over his past two starts, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -10 feet. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have historically smashed:
The one area where Morton lags well behind the other top starters is his strikeout upside vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. He owns a K Prediction of just 6.0, which is tied for 10th among pitchers.
James Paxton rounds out the stud group, and he’s the toughest pitcher to make a case for despite having arguably the best matchup. The Orioles have averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season but are implied for 4.1 today vs. Paxton. That could be due to his recent Statcast data, which is downright terrifying. He’s allowed an average distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 50%, all of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages. His Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -60 on DraftKings suggests he could be due for some unfortunate regression.
Values
Freddy Peralta might be the most intriguing pitcher on today’s slate. He’s made just three starts this season, but he owns some absolutely filthy numbers with a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 14.36 K/9. He’s also a strong -228 favorite vs. the Kansas City Royals, who are implied for 3.2 runs. Peralta is priced at just $7,900 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have unsurprisingly been awesome values:
Still, there are some concerns with Peralta. The first is his potential volume. He has tallied just 15.2 innings through his first three starts despite his elite numbers and is yet to make it past the sixth inning. He can still do a lot of damage in limited time given his strikeout ability — he tallied over 40 DraftKings points at Coors Field over 5.2 innings — but his lack of volume will make things more difficult.
The second concern is the Statcast data from his most recent start, particularly his fly-ball rate of 64% and average distance of 238 feet. The Royals have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league vs. right-handed pitchers, so they could put more balls in play than usual against Peralta. Still, it’s hard to discount the upside that he provides at his current salary, which makes him an elite target for GPPs.
Zach Godley has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .280 wOBA and 28.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly, he has strong marks across the board with a 3.7-run opponent implied total, -167 moneyline odds and 8.1 K Prediction. He’s a nice option for those looking outside the top tier.
Fastballs
Lance Lynn: He’s in an interesting spot vs. the Chicago White Sox. His opponent implied total of 4.4 runs is concerning, but he should provide decent upside for GPPs at relatively low ownership. He has a K Prediction of 6.6 and has limited his past two opponents to a 22% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.58 on DraftKings.
Ross Stripling: He’s been one of the most reliable starters on the slate over the past year, owning a Consistency Rating of 72%, and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.94 over his past 10 starts. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Chicago Cubs but still has strong marks in both opponent implied run total (3.3) and moneyline odds (-158).
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
Their implied total of 4.7 runs is tied for just eighth and a full run less than the slate-high mark of 5.7, but the Twins stack costs just $18,100, and Minnesota has one of the better Team Value Ratings on DraftKings. That could be important on a slate with tons of expensive pitching options.
The Twins take on White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who has pitched well this season but is undoubtedly due for some regression moving forward. His xFIP of 5.52 is nearly two full runs higher than his traditional ERA thanks to a paltry K/9 of just 6.47. He’s also underperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
The biggest concern for the Twins is the weather, with the current forecast calling for a 70% chance of precipitation. That could further reduce their ownership in GPPs, which is enticing, but you’ll want to monitor the situation prior to lineup lock to ensure that a rainout isn’t a foregone conclusion.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers are implied for 4.8 runs against Jakob Junis, who has been roughed up for 15 earned runs over his past three outings, allowing seven home runs in the process. The Brewers have plenty of home-run upside: Eric Thames and Christin Yelich each have an ISO of at least .209 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Thames, Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain all have positive distance differentials over the past 15 days.
Additional Batters
Mookie Betts will likely be one of the highest-owned batters given Boston’s implied total, and he has an excellent matchup vs. Angels left-hander John Lamb. Betts has crushed lefties this season, boasting a .461 wOBA and .379 ISO, and he also owns positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s extremely appealing on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Danny Santana is an intriguing buy-low candidate. He’s complied elite marks in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past three games, but his lack of fantasy success over that time results in an RBBL of +95 on DraftKings. He could enjoy progression today vs. Reds right-hander Matt Harvey, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season.
Most people will not consider the Rockies since they’re not at Coors Field, but they still have substantial upside against Giants left-hander Derek Holland. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story own two of the highest ISO splits on the slate, while D.J. LeMahieu owns one of the top marks in wOBA. All three batters are projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Freddy Peralta
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
