After Wednesday’s hefty slate that featured 28 of the league’s 30 teams, the NBA is taking it easy on Thursday. We’ve got just two games on the board, both of which start at 9:00 PM ET or later.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Stephen Curry ($8,200)
The slate’s higher-scoring game – on paper, at least – will take place in the Bay Area where the Warriors will host the Heat. Stephen Curry is off to a blazing start, averaging exactly 30 points per game to go along with 4.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds. He’s doing it on his typically hot 42.9% shooting from three-point range, all while averaging just under 29 minutes per outing. It all adds up to a whopping 1.6 DK fantasy points-per-minute for Steph through six games.
Miami came into the season billed as one of the league’s fastest-paced teams, but that hasn’t really been the case. They’ve slowed things down considerably, coming into this one ranked just 28th in pace factor. What they lack in pace they make up for in poor defense, as they’re a disappointing 26th in defensive efficiency. Most importantly for Curry, the Heat are yielding the fourth-most three-point attempts per game (42.3) and the most three-point makes (17.1). To make the matchup even better for Steph, the Heat are also fresh off an overtime game last night in LA, so chasing him around countless screens could be even more difficult than usual.
Value
Anthony Black ($6,000)
The Magic are one of many teams dealing with injuries early in the season. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs remain sidelined, which leaves Orlando thin on capable ball-handlers. Anthony Black has missed a few games with his own injuries, though he’s been elevated into a starting role when healthy and averaging 32 minutes over his last two games.
With Banchero and Suggs off the floor, Black has seen the largest spike in usage rate (+1.6%) among all Magic players. That includes back-to-back games of at least 40 DraftKings points against tough foes in the Celtics and Raptors, respectively. Needless to say, the Suns are not the Celtics or Raptors. Phoenix comes into this one ranked dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and they’re on the second half of a back-to-back after allowing more than 130 points in last night’s defeat to the Blazers.
Fast Break
Devin Booker ($8,500) – Devin Booker is $300 more expensive than Curry on DraftKings, and it’s safe to assume the latter will garner significantly more ownership as a result. Booker (and the rest of the Suns) is off to a sluggish start, but he has historically had a similar range of outcomes to Curry. Booker still leads Phoenix in usage (27.8%), while Orlando is a solid matchup, ranking 23rd in the league in defensive rating.
Davion Mitchell ($6,400) – There are not many bright spots for Miami amid a disappointing 3-5 start, though you can’t blame their misfortune on Davion Mitchell. Mitchell is averaging career-highs in both scoring (15.4 PPG) and assists (8.3 APG). He’s also shooting 40% on a career-best five three-point attempts per game thus far.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane ($7,200)
Desmond Bane is typically more of a high-floor/low-ceiling type of fantasy option, but on a two-game slate, a high floor may come in handy. Bane’s usage is only up by a nominal 0.2% so far on the year with Banchero and Suggs on the bench, but the minutes are there. Bane is averaging 34.7 minutes per game, while he’s logged at least 36 minutes in each of Orlando’s last three games.
Bane’s ceiling projection in the Player Models isn’t as high as Booker’s, but the $1,300 you’ll save with Bane will prove useful on such a small slate. The matchup against the Suns is also terrific for a spot-up shooter, as Phoenix is allowing the second-most made three-pointers per game (15.8) in the season’s early going.
Value
Klay Thompson ($4,400)
This certainly won’t be Klay Thompson’s first return to San Francisco since leaving the Warriors, but you know motivation still won’t be an issue for him in this matchup. Curry and Draymond Green are still on the other side. Through his first eight games as a member of the Heat, Thompson is supplying his usual elite marksmanship (42.5% 3P%) in just over 23 minutes per game.
Klay is fresh off what was easily his best game of the season. Last night in LA, Thompson piled up 30 points, five rebounds, and three assists in 35 minutes of action, including overtime. He drilled eight of his 17 attempts from beyond the long line, too.
Fast Break
Pelle Larsson ($5,200) – Pelle Larsson is averaging a modest 0.74 DK fantasy points-per-minute on the season, but he’s one of the few bench players on this slate capable of playing major minutes. Larsson logged 30 minutes last night against the Clippers, a threshold he’s surpassed in five of Miami’s eight games so far this year.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Franz Wagner ($8,700)
Franz Wagner has a lot of offensive responsibility with Banchero and Suggs sidelined. He leads all Magic regulars in usage rate (29.8%) and assist rate (38%). Wagner is stuffing the stat sheet as a result, averaging 20.3 points, 7.6 assists, and 6.1 rebounds in nearly 36 minutes per game. If anything, Wagner is leaving some points on the table, as he’s shooting just 42% from the field and 20% from three-point territory.
This is a solid spot for Wagner’s poor percentages to bounce back, as the Suns are allowing their foes to shoot 48.4% from the field this season, the fifth-highest mark in the NBA. Wagner is easily the most expensive small forward on the slate at $8,700, but it’s hardly too much to pay given his monster offensive role these days.
Value
Andrew Wiggins ($5,000)
On a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo handling most of the usage, there simply isn’t much left to go around for the remaining pieces. Andrew Wiggins has seen his usage rate decline all the way to 16.3% early in the season, down considerably from the 20.1% mark he posted a season ago on a considerably different Heat team.
After averaging a solid 0.99 DK points-per-minute last year, Wiggins’ FPPM rate is down to just 0.67 this year. His minutes have also been more erratic, with Pelle Larsson among those playing a decent role off the bench. Still, Wiggins is down to $5,000 as a result, and you can’t get too picky on a tiny two-game slate.
Fast Break
Yaxel Lendeborg ($7,800) – While Curry is still doing Curry things, Yaxel Lendeborg has quickly become the most interesting player in the Bay Area. The rookie’s pro career is off to a flying start, as he’s averaging a robust 1.21 DK points-per-minute with the third-highest usage rate on the team (26.1%). Lendeborg has already topped 40 DK points five times, while he’s topped 50 twice.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Things haven’t gone quite as planned for Giannis Antetokounmpo so far in his first season in South Beach, but it’s early. Since their 0-4 start, the Heat have bounced back with three wins in their last four, including an OT win over the Clippers last night. It’s also worth noting that Giannis is still as elite as ever, at least from a fantasy standpoint. The Greek Freak is averaging 28.3 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.1 combined blocks and steals per game, adding up to a whopping 1.81 DK fantasy points-per-minute.
Golden State’s defense has bounced back after a rough first few games, but this should still be an advantageous spot for Antetokounmpo individually. The Warriors are allowing the 10th-most points in the paint per game, which, of course, is where Giannis does most of his work offensively. The question is whether you can find enough cheap value to comfortably afford to pay all the way up for Antetokounmpo’s $11,000 salary.
Value
Tristan da Silva ($5,300)
The Magic’s aforementioned injuries have opened up additional playing time for Tristan da Silva off the bench. The former Colorado Buffalo is averaging a career-best 29.4 minutes per game in his third NBA campaign, while he’s topped 30 minutes in three of his last four outings, all in a reserve role.
Da Silva may not be the most exciting per-minute contributor (0.84 DK FP/minute), but the matchup suits him well. As mentioned earlier, the Suns are yielding the second-most made three-pointers per game thus far. Da Silva is hoisting more than seven three-pointers per game off the Orlando bench and knocking them down at a terrific 44.2% clip.
Fast Break
Miles Bridges ($7,100) – The Suns are off to a disastrous 1-5 start, though they are favored by 1.5 points at home tonight over the visiting Magic. Through six games with his new team, Miles Bridges is contributing 17.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in nearly 33 minutes a night. He’s also topped 40 DK points in three straight games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo ($7,800)
Bam Adebayo mustered just 19 total points through his first two games playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he seems to have found his rhythm ever since. Bam has piled up at least 24 points in three of his last four appearances, while he’s grabbed at least nine rebounds in four straight.
Adebayo’s usage rate (22%) has predictably declined a bit this season, but his 1.24 DK FP/minute average is similar to the number he posted a season ago with a completely different Miami roster around him. Bam’s ceiling has been impressive of late, too, as he’s topped 40 DK points in each of his last four outings, and he’s still arguably underpriced for the production at $7,800.
Value
Draymond Green ($5,500)
Even now that he’s in the latter stages of his career, Draymond Green is still an integral cog in the Warriors’ machine at the defensive end of the floor. His offensive role, however, seems to have declined now that Yaxel Lendeborg is in the mix. Green is averaging a paltry 3.2 points per game this season, though he’s still managing to add 6.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and around 2.0 combined blocks and steals in around 26 minutes a night.
Scoring has never been Green’s job on this team, and he’s still usually topping 30 minutes in competitive games. He may not be a great option on a bigger slate, but on a two-gamer, a $5,500 Draymond will crack my player pool in all formats.
Fast Break
Wendell Carter ($6,500) – Wendell Carter is never the most exciting way to fill a center spot, as he’s topped 30 DK points just once in his last five games. The minutes are there, though, as his average of 32.4 minutes per game is easily the highest of his career. Carter is a decent bet for a double-double, as the Suns come into this one ranked last in the league in rebound rate.
Pictured: Stephen Curry
Photo Credit: Imagn
