Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a tournament, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Puka Nacua ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
The Rams politely told everyone to “settle down” last week. There were some concerns after they slipped to just 2-4 in the standings while the injuries continued to pile up. Davante Adams became the latest casualty, but the offense had zero issues moving the ball without him.
Of course, having Nacua helps. He was already one of the biggest target hogs in football, and he could take on an even larger role moving forward. He had a season-high 97% route participation sans Adams last week, and his 34% target share was his second-highest of the year. Nacua responded with eight catches for 68 yards and a touchdown, and that felt closer to a floor performance than a ceiling one.
Nacua checks in with the top raw projections at the position, despite a mediocre matchup vs. the Chargers. He also leads all receivers in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus. Overall, he’s one of the safest bets on the slate.
Drake London ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
London continues to prove that as long as Michael Penix is under center in Atlanta, he’s one of the best wide receivers in fantasy. Since Penix took over in Week 3, London has averaged a massive 33% target share and 47% air yards share. He’s averaged 9.4 targets and 107.2 receiving yards per game during that stretch.
London has two 100-yard games across those contests, and he has one receiving touchdown. The latter figure seems poised to improve. London had seven scores in 12 games last season, and he had nine in 17 the year prior.
London has yet to put it all together for one truly big performance, but that should be just a matter of time. He ultimately ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus, making him a nice combination of value and upside.
Zay Flowers ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Flowers checks a lot of the same boxes as London. Both guys are priced in the same range, and they’ve been comparable from a usage standpoint. Flowers has posted a 31% target share for the year, and he currently ranks sixth at the position in terms of fantasy scoring. He’s posted a finish of WR6 or better in three of his six outings, including a season-high 30.7 DraftKings points last week vs. the Bengals.
Flowers did that despite playing without Lamar Jackson at quarterback. He’s missed the past three games for the Ravens, but he’ll be back under center this week vs. the Bills. That’s a huge development for the Ravens offense. Jackson is still one of the best quarterbacks in football, and as long as he’s close to 100%, this contest should feature plenty of offense. The total currently sits at 54.5 points, which is tied for the highest on the slate.
The Bills are listed as favorites in this matchup, but it’s arguably a better spot for the Ravens. Buffalo’s defense has been pretty horrendous this season. They rank 29th in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. It results in a position-best +1.9 Opponent Plus/Minus for Flowers.
He ultimately edges out London in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he ranks second in Sim Labs optimal lineup rate. Loading up on Ravens-Bills should be a popular strategy, and Flowers stands out as one of the best potential pieces.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
With plenty of marquee players on the docket, we’re going to have to find some value somewhere. Robinson stands out as one of the strongest values at receiver.
It’s hard to get excited about anyone catching passes from Cam Ward. He’s failed to make the leap at quarterback in his second season. If anything, he’s taken a step back; he’s dipped from 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt as a rookie to just 5.0 this season.
However, Robinson could see a big uptick in volume this week. Carnell Tate leads the team with a 27% target share, and he’s been ruled out vs. the Bengals. Robinson ranks second on the team at 23%, and that number could easily eclipse 30 in this matchup.
The Bengals also stand out as a phenomenal opponent. While their defense has improved overall this season, their biggest weakness has been against inside receivers. No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to slot receivers this year.
Add in the fact that the Titans are 10.5-point underdogs – and will likely have to throw the ball a ton – and Robinson is one of the best cash game plays of the week. He leads all receivers in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
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CeeDee Lamb ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
The Cowboys haven’t been quite as dynamic as expected on offense this season. However, they put together a strong showing last week vs. the Eagles. They racked up 38 points, with Lamb accounting for two of the team’s touchdowns. He ultimately finished with 12 targets, five receptions, and 74 yards, resulting in 24.4 DraftKings points.
Lamb has now seen at least 12 targets in three of his past four games, and he could be poised for another big performance vs. the Cardinals. No team is expected to do more scoring this week. Dallas leads the slate with a 30.75 implied team total. The Cardinals are 30th in EPA per pass defensively, and they should do just enough scoring to keep the Cowboys from taking their foot off the gas.
Lamb currently owns the top DraftKings optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs and trails only Nacua in ceiling projection.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Chase’s season has been a slight disappointment. He’s still one of the best receivers in fantasy, but he’s fallen behind the top guys at the position. He currently ranks 13th in fantasy points per game, despite being selected first at the position in most fantasy drafts this offseason. His target share has slipped to just 22% this season, which puts him behind Tee Higgins in the Bengals’ pecking order.
Still, this is Ja’Marr Chase. He has a long enough track record to earn the benefit of the doubt. He’s still an elite player, and it’s only a matter of time before he puts together a huge performance.
When that happens, Chase is available at a discount. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.36 over the past three seasons with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
It’s possible that the Bengals don’t need to take to the air often vs. the Titans. However, they should be effective when they do. Tennessee ranks 26th in EPA per pass attempt defensively, and they traded away their best defensive player in Jeffrey Simmons. The Bengals 29.5-point implied team total ranks second on the slate.
Chris Godwin ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Buccaneers are coming off an absolute demolition of the Panthers last week. They dominated the game with their defense and rushing attack, and Baker Mayfield only attempted 11 passes as a result. That’s not going to happen very often.
Emeka Egbuka missed last week’s contest, which allowed Godwin to take over as the team’s No. 1 option. He was targeted on a whopping 56% of Mayfield’s pass attempts. While that number is not sustainable over a larger sample, he could definitely be a 25-30% type of guy for as long as Egbuka is sidelined.
That makes him an interesting value option at his current price tag across the industry. He ranks fourth at receiver in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 5 on FanDuel.
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Justin Jefferson ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
It’s sad that this is what has become of Jefferson. He’s the new Larry Fitzgerald – an elite wide receiver who is being held back by subpar quarterback play. Jefferson put together a historic first five NFL seasons, but he’s been mediocre since the start of last year. He’s currently WR29 in terms of 0.5-PPR points per game, which feels criminal for a player of his caliber.
Perhaps this will be a breakout spot for the entire Vikings offense. They’re taking on the Lions, who have been an elite matchup so far this season. They rank 28th in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
Jefferson is ultimately projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings, and his optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership in Sim Labs. He has comparable upside to the top receivers on the slate at a solid discount.
George Pickens ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Pickens is currently listed as questionable for the Cowboys, and his status will be important to monitor. If he’s unable to go, Lamb would vault to the top of the WR rankings, while Ryan Flournoy would become an appealing value option.
That said, Pickens is tentatively expected to suit up. He’s played through a shoulder injury the past two weeks, and while he’s also now dealing with a hamstring injury, he was able to practice on a limited basis.
Pickens’ injury designation could result in him being a bit overlooked vs. the Cardinals. That makes him a nice target for tournaments. He still brings plenty of upside to the table, especially in an elite matchup. His Sim Labs optimal lineup rate checks in at 17% on DraftKings, while his projected ownership is closer to 10.5%. That’s the largest discrepancy at the position.
Caleb Douglas ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
There are plenty of strong values at receiver this week, and Douglas is another one. He returned to the lineup last week for the Dolphins following a three-game absence, and he made his presence felt immediately. He only had three targets, but he managed two touchdowns and 70 yards with those opportunities.
Douglas’ role should only continue to grow moving forward. The Dolphins are clearly playing for the future, and Douglas could be a part of it. He should get plenty of opportunities vs. the Patriots, with the Dolphins listed as seven-point home underdogs.
Khalil Shakir ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
It seems like D.J. Moore is trending toward returning to the lineup this week. He got in a limited practice on Friday, and if he does return, he should resume his role as the Bills’ top receiver.
That said, it should still leave plenty of work for Shakir. He’s seen a consistent 20% target share for the Bills all season, and he’s scored at least 11.0 DraftKings points in three straight games.
That’s not the most exciting production, but there’s no reason he can’t improve on those marks in what figures to be an elite game environment. The Bills have the third-highest implied team total of the week.
Shakir also stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. His $5,700 salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, yet he’s still projected for less than 5% ownership.
Pictured: Drake London
Photo Credit: Imagn
