With no international game this week, we have an 11-game slate for Week 8. This time there are two clear standout games with identical 54.5-point totals, with the rest of the slate checking in at 46.5 or below. How to maximize exposure to the top plays from those games will be a key factor on the slate.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
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As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (54.5 Total)
One of the two top games this week is the AFC clash between the Bills and Ravens, two teams that have put on their fair share of thrilling games in the eras of their respective MVP quarterbacks. Their most recent meeting in Week 1 of last season produced 81 total points, with the game before that going for 52 points despite being outside in Buffalo in January.
Obviously, with the outsized share of his team’s production that Josh Allen is responsible for, he’s the clear top play from this game. Allen is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with eight (the other players with eight have all played one more game than Allen) and has 240 rushing yards through six contests. That works out to an average of 12 DraftKings points per game without counting any of his passing stats.
Allen is actually having a slightly down year throwing the ball, averaging only 250 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. That’s partially due to Buffalo’s continued inability to find a true star receiver for Allen to throw to, as well as limited attempts in games that Buffalo has controlled. With Lamar Jackson back for the Ravens, this one should be close enough that we get a heavy dose of Allen, though.
He’s the QB1 in terms of points per game by a huge margin, taking on a mediocre defense in what projects to be the highest-scoring game on the slate. I want as much Allen as I can afford in all contest types this week.
Value: Dak Prescott ($6,300) Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (54.5 Total)
Dak Prescott is the budget-friendly version of Allen this week, as he’s also favored in a high-total game. Dallas is implied for more points than the Bills, which on the one hand is a good sign. Of course, that also means we have a wider spread, which could lead to less passing from Dallas. That’s more important for a player like Prescott than Allen, since Dak is unlikely to contribute meaningfully with his legs.
Still, Dallas ranks 6th in PROE on the season, and a seven-point spread doesn’t imply a blowout, so there’s a good chance Prescott approaches 40+ passing attempts, as he’s done in four of their seven games so far. He has a pair of talented wide receivers in an indoor game, taking on the worst defense (by points allowed) in the NFL, making this an excellent spot all around.
The Cowboys’ defense isn’t much better – and ranks worse by DVOA – so there’s a good chance the Cardinals can do enough to keep this competitive, making this an excellent spot for a game stack. You could pair Prescott with his running back and some Cardinals in smaller tournaments – trying to capture as many points from the game as possible – or do traditional stacks with Prescott and one or both of his receivers. Either way, he has a strong shot to challenge for the top price-considered score and is projecting ahead of Allen and every other QB in Pts/Sal.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($6,800): The thesis for Jackson is similar to that for Allen, only with some concerns over his rushing upside after missing three games with a high ankle sprain. Assuming he’s 100%, it’s an excellent spot against the team that’s allowed the second-most points to QBs in the league. We should also get somewhat of a break on ownership following his injury, making this the right time to roster Jackson before the field gets comfortable with the idea.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,700): Brissett is the B-side of the other top game on the slate but has been reasonably productive this season. He’s had a pair of down weeks, but those came against top-tier defenses in the Rams and Broncos, making this an excellent buy-low spot. At his price tag, a 25-point game is probably a tournament winner, and he’s hit that mark twice this year despite a tough overall schedule.
Kyler Murray ($5,600): The only team allowing more points to QBs than the Bills is the Lions, which makes this perhaps the last shot for Kyler Murray to give us a productive passing game. He and the Vikings’ offense in general have struggled this year, but a matchup with Detroit could do a lot to turn that around. I won’t have a ton of him, but with his ownership projected at less than 4%, it’s easy to get ahead of the field.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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