Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
Gibbs continues to handle the largest workload in the entire NFL. The Lions are using him like they have zero concern for his future, and while that might bite them in the long run, it’s paying huge dividends for Gibbs this season. He leads the league with 166 touches, and he had 35 last week vs. the Packers. Ultimately, Gibbs has handled 86% of the Lions’ carries this season, while his 18% target share trails only Christian McCaffrey at running back.
All those touches have led to some big fantasy performances. Gibbs has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.80 across his first six outings, and he’s had at least 37.6 DraftKings points in three of them. His two “down” performances were 17.7 and 21.3 DraftKings points, giving him one of the best floor/ceiling combinations in the league.
That potential does come with the top price tag at the position, but it’s hard to argue against anyone else as the top option. That’s despite a tough matchup on paper vs. the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense has been elite to start the year, though they’ve yet to face a test like the Lions. Detroit is still implied for a healthy 25.0 points in this matchup, so the oddsmakers still expect the Lions to move the ball.
Gibbs stands out as a top option across the industry, but his $9,300 salary on FanDuel is criminal. It results in a 99% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin. Even at his more expensive DraftKings’ salary, he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus on that site.
Chase Brown ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Targeting large favorites at running back is always a strong strategy in DFS, and Brown stands out in that department this week. He’s taking on the Titans, and the Bengals are listed as 11-point home favorites.
The Titans have been awful this season, and they’re only going to be worse moving forward. They traded away Jeffrey Simmons this week, who was easily their best player. Without him, their defense is going to fall even further in the rankings.
Brown hasn’t been the same workhorse that he was down the stretch for the Bengals the previous two years, but he’s still handled 67% of the team’s carries with a 14% target share. He’s yet to have a true standout performance this season, which has caused his price tag to dip across the industry.
This could be the breakout week. Brown has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.39 as a favorite of more than four points, and Brown has never been a favorite of double digits (per the Trends tool). As long as this game goes as expected, he should get plenty of opportunities against a defense that should be really soft on the interior without Simmons.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Like the Titans, the Colts are another team that are selling before the trade deadline. They’ve already traded away Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and more guys could follow. Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor have been rumored, and who knows who else could be available.
It makes the Jaguars another appealing team target this week. They’re listed as 10-point favorites vs. the Colts, and their 28.0 implied team total ranks fourth on the slate.
Tuten doesn’t have quite the same level of volume as Brown, but his role appears to be growing. He handled just 54% of the team’s carries through their first three contests, but that figure is up to 71% over the past three. He’s also seen a larger percentage of the short-yardage opportunities, which gives him a bit more upside from a touchdown perspective.
Tuten is still going to have to share the ball with Chris Rodriguez, but there should be enough work to go around for everyone this week. He stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with an 86% Bargain Rating. He ultimately ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Bijan Robinson ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
The Falcons were able to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season, despite a mediocre showing from Robinson. He turned 20 carries into 63 scoreless yards, so it was his least effective performance on the ground by a pretty wide margin. He averaged 5.8 yards per attempt across his first six games, so that seems like a clear outlier.
The good news is that Robinson was still very effective as a pass-catcher. He caught all five of his targets for 59 yards, and his target share sits at 16% for the year. That puts him just outside the top five at running back, and that number could definitely grow moving forward: he had a 20% target share last year.
The Buccaneers do stand out as a tough matchup. They’re in the top 10 in terms of rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. That – combined with the presence of Gibbs – should result in a bit lower ownership than usual for Robinson. He still has the second-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, and it exceeds his projected ownership by +6.1% on DraftKings.
Bucky Irving ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Irving should be a popular target for the Buccaneers. The Bucs’ ground attack was absolutely dominant last week vs. the Panthers. They racked up 258 yards, with Irving accounting for 106 of them. He added two rushing touchdowns, making him the second-highest-scoring RB of the week for fantasy purposes.
It was Irving’s third straight game with at least 19 carries, and he’s had 100+ yards and a touchdown in two of them. There’s no reason he can’t do it again this week. The Falcons defense has actually been pretty good against the run this season (fourth in EPA per rush), but they’ve still allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
Irving is another player who stands out as a nice option on DraftKings. His $6,400 salary comes with an 81% Bargain Rating, and he actually leads all RBs in projected Plus/Minus.
Javonte Williams ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Williams continues to serve as the Cowboys’ bell-cow running back, and he has quietly put up strong numbers in that role dating back to last season. He’s finished as a top-four option at the position in two of his past four games, scoring at least 24.5 DraftKings points in each. Williams remains one of the biggest threats to score a touchdown every week, scoring nine times through his first seven games.
Williams is in arguably one of the best spots of the entire week. The Cowboys are seven-point favorites in a game with a 54.5-point total, resulting in a slate-high 30.75 implied team total. Arizona hasn’t been quite as bad against the run as they have vs. the pass, but they’ve still allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
Williams ultimately has the fourth-best optimal lineup rate at the position on DraftKings, and he moves up to No. 3 on FanDuel.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Tony Pollard ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Pollard is one of the only good things going for the Titans at the moment. He has been the clear focal point of their offense, handling at least 82% of the team’s rushing attempts in three straight games. As long as the game stays competitive, they’re going to get him the rock as much as possible.
That was the case last week, and he turned in a massive performance vs. the Browns. He racked up 129 yards and three touchdowns on the ground with three catches for 26 yards through the air, resulting in 38.0 FanDuel points. It was the best mark at the position, making him a legit week-winner for fantasy purposes.
There’s no guarantee that this week’s game is as competitive. In fact, it seems unlikely; the Titans are the largest underdogs of the week. Still, Pollard stands out as a clear target on FanDuel. His $6,200 salary comes with a 77% Bargain Rating, and he ranks fourth at the position in optimal lineup rate.
Derrick Henry ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The game between the Ravens and Bills has the potential for plenty of fireworks. They have two of the best offenses in football, and neither is particularly impressive on defense. It results in a 54.5-point total, with the Bills listed as modest three-point home favorites.
While Baltimore’s defense is nothing to write home about, the Bills’ is downright atrocious. They’re dead last in EPA per play through seven weeks, and they have a bottom eight unit against the run and the pass. It’s a phenomenal spot for the Ravens offense to get rolling with Lamar Jackson expected to return to the lineup.
Jackson’s return should open up some running room for Henry, who continues to handle most of the team’s rushing attempts. The Bills have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, so it’s a great spot to target Henry at less ownership than usual.
Jaylen Warren ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Rico Dowdle returned to the lineup for Pittsburgh last week, and that unsurprisingly impacted Warren. He slipped to just a 62% snap share after logging at least 72% in each of the previous five games.
However, Warren still managed 67% of the team’s rushing attempts in that outing, compared to just 33% for Dowdle. Dowdle did more work as a pass-catcher – filling the Kenneth Gainwell role from last season – but Warren has clearly established himself as the team’s preferred runner.
Warren draws a tough matchup vs. the Browns, but it’s one he can still succeed in. He had 17 carries for 93 yards in his first matchup vs. the Browns, and he added six targets, three receptions, and 33 receiving yards. Warren ultimately stands out as one of the more undervalued options at the position in Sim Labs.
Kyren Williams ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Williams has been extremely consistent for the Rams and fantasy players this season. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in just one game, and his 16 carries last week were tied for a new season-high. He responded with 99 yards and a touchdown, and he continues to chip in some work as a receiver as well.
With the Rams still dealing with some key injuries on offense, Williams could pick up a few extra opportunities vs. the Chargers. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites in this contest, so Williams is another guy who could benefit from a favorable game script.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
