DraftKings is rolling out a 6-game NBA main slate on the first Friday of the season. Every game tips between 7 and 8 PM ET, so incessant late-swapping likely won’t be necessary. Most of the games feature tight spreads and high totals, so it could be another high-scoring night.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Tyrese Haliburton ($8,000)
Haliburton made his long-anticipated return from an Achilles tear on Wednesday, yet he looked no worse for wear. Indiana’s star guard went out and dropped a 23-point, 12-assist double-double in a win over the Pelicans across 33 minutes of action. Haliburton’s rate of 1.3 DK fantasy points-per-minute in that one was actually lower than the 1.42 mark he posted in his last healthy season, so there’s still some room for improvement.
Haliburton checks in with the highest Plus/Minus of any point guard on the slate ahead of tonight’s matchup against Dallas. We’re working with a tiny one-game sample, but the Mavs defense isn’t likely to be a strength as they continue their rebuild. On opening night, Dallas allowed the Rockets to pile up 128 points on blistering 53% shooting from the field and 44% from three-point territory. In related news, the Pacers’ 123-point implied team total in this one is the highest on tonight’s slate.
Value
Dennis Schroder ($4,900)
Schroder was one of the chalkiest plays on Wednesday’s slate thanks to a starting role and a $3,700 salary. He’s a whopping $1,200 more expensive this evening but likely still underpriced. The well-traveled veteran logged 34 minutes in his Charlotte debut and piled up 19 points, six assists, and four rebounds on efficient 7-for-13 shooting from the floor in a win over the Nets. Tonight, Schroder will face one of his many former teams – the Hawks – in a potential shootout. Atlanta ran at the league’s fourth-fastest pace a season ago, and they’re likely to play a similar style again this year.
The Hornets don’t have many alternatives to Schroder in the backcourt, with Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Coby White (calf) both sidelined by injuries. Schroder and rookie Christian Anderson are the only ball-handlers left, and Charles Lee appears reluctant to throw Anderson into the fire so early in his career. You can argue Schroder should be a $6,000 player in this secure role.
Fast Break
Immanuel Quickley ($6,200) – The Raptors blew the doors off the hapless Bulls in their season opener, and they’re healthy 8.5-point favorites tonight over the Wizards in DC. It’s fairly safe to assume Kawhi Leonard will lead Toronto in usage this season, but his steadying presence should also benefit some of his teammates. Nine of Immanuel Quickley’s 13 field goal attempts came from beyond the arc in that one, while he also piled up seven assists, four rebounds, and a couple of steals. Per the Player Model, Quickley looks like one of the best values at any position in a favorable micro matchup against the defensive sieve known as Trae Young.
Trae Young ($7,900) – Defense may not be Young’s forte, but that’s not why the Wizards traded for him. He pulled the strings for Washington offensively after a rough start in their opening-night win over the Bucks. Despite not shooting particularly well (4-for-13), Trae still finished with 20 points and 13 rebounds in a team-high 38 minutes. The Wizards’ offense is likely to again flow through Young and Anthony Davis with AJ Dybantsa still sidelined by an ankle injury.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards ($9,500)
If their opening-night drubbing of the Heat in Miami was any indication, the new-look Timberwolves are a real threat in the Western Conference. Anthony Edwards was, predictably, the driving force in that one, finishing with 45 points and 10 rebounds in an all-around dominant performance. Minnesota’s blockbuster move for LaMelo Ball over the summer was meant to give Edwards more offensive support, and having another dynamic ball-handler on the floor should make life easier for Ant.
Edwards is one of the slate’s more expensive players at $9,500 going into tonight’s matchup in Orlando. The Magic have been among the league’s more defensively sound teams in recent seasons, though high-usage guards have given them trouble. Edwards dropped 34 points in his lone meeting with the Magic a season ago, and he’s projected for just 2.07% ownership on this slate.
Value
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,200)
Alexander-Walker enjoyed a breakout season in his first campaign with the Hawks. His scoring average of 20.8 points per game was nearly double his previous career-best, and he’s developed into one of the league’s better two-way guards. NAW was also the driving force in Atlanta’s impressive win over the Magic on opening night, finishing with a team-high 31 points, including a pair of late three-pointers to effectively seal the game.
Tonight, the Hawks are slight favorites in Charlotte over a banged-up version of the Hornets. While Charlotte was one of the league’s better defensive teams a season ago, a host of new faces and a rash of injuries could lead to a slower start this term. I’ll take the under on 31 points for Alexander-Walker in this one, but his solid 1.02 FP-per-minute rate last season shows he doesn’t have to lead the Hawks in scoring in order to be a viable play.
Fast Break
Desmond Bane ($6,100) – Bane’s first season in Orlando didn’t go quite as planned, but he still averaged better than 20 points on efficient 39% shooting from three-point country. With Franz Wagner and, to a lesser extent, Paolo Banchero serving as distributors in Sean Sweeney’s offense, Bane should be free to roam as a spot-up threat. That makes him somewhat scoring-reliant as a DFS option, but he’s also just $6,100 on DraftKings.
Paul George ($6,700) – Not to overreact to one game, but Paul George sure looked comfortable in his first game in Celtics green on Tuesday. The former All-Star led the team with 38 points on blazing 12-for-21 shooting, including knocking down seven of his 12 attempts from distance. PG-13 picked up the slack in light of a poor showing from Jayson Tatum, and he should find himself with no shortage of quality looks playing in Boston’s loaded offense.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum ($9,200)
Speaking of Tatum, he endured one of the worst shooting games of his career on opening night. He converted just six of his 23 attempts from the field (26%) en route to just 13 points. That includes missing all seven of his looks from three-point distance. In 203 minutes last season with Jaylen Brown off the floor, Tatum led Boston in usage (37.3%) while averaging a robust 1.44 DK FP-per-minute.
George is a far different offensive player than Brown, and he’s more comfortable spotting up and playing a complementary offensive role. This will be Tatum’s offense to drive all season, and his $9,200 DK salary tonight may be the lowest we see for the rest of the year. Even in a tough matchup against the reigning champs, Tatum projects as one of the best spend-up options at any position.
Value
Naji Marshall ($4,500)
Naji Marshall served as the Mavs’ de facto point guard for much of last season with Kyrie Irving sidelined by a torn ACL. With Kyrie back, Marshall looks primed to captain the Mavs’ second unit. He was one of the few bright spots for Dallas in their opening-night blowout loss in Houston, finishing with 16 points, six assists, and a couple of rebounds in 28 minutes off the bench.
Indiana was one of the league’s worst defensive teams a season ago. I doubt that’ll be the case again now that they have several key players back from injury, but it’s still a more favorable spot than the Mavs faced in Houston. Marshall posted a healthy 24% usage rate in the opener, and, given Dallas’ lack of other high-usage pieces among the reserves, he should be in line for steady production all season.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard ($7,700) – The Raptors didn’t have to break a sweat in a thumping of the Bulls the other night, and they get another solid matchup tonight in DC. Leonard paced his new (and old) team in usage (33%), and he managed to pile up 44.5 DK points in just 23 minutes of action. Kawhi has long been an incredibly efficient fantasy performer, and he’s projected for only about 7% ownership tonight.
Grayson Allen ($4,800) – Allen is another of the many new faces in Charlotte this season. Despite coming off the bench in his debut, the Duke product still led the Hornets in scoring with 21 points in 29 minutes. There is plenty of usage available in this offense with Knueppel and White out of the mix, and Allen’s SG/SF eligibility on DraftKings means you can roster him at the maximum number of spots.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis ($8,600)
The Wizards are off to a 1-0 start, thanks in no small part to Anthony Davis’ exploits. Davis was a terror on both ends against Milwaukee, finishing with a team-high 34 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and three combined blocks and steals. AD also logged 34 minutes in that one, which was nice to see after he battled injuries down the stretch a season ago.
While I doubt Davis’ 34% usage and 1.77 FP/minute rates are sustainable long-term, he’s still going to have a huge role offensively with Dybantsa out injured. AD’s DK salary jumped from $7,400 on opening night to $8,600 tonight, but his ability to stuff the stat sheet means he’s likely still too cheap.
Value
OG Anunoby ($5,800)
As was the case with many players on opening night, OG Anunoby struggled from the field. Anunoby went just 3-for-12 from the floor en route to just 10 points in 31 minutes of action. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are the head honchos here from a usage standpoint, but Anunoby showed routinely during the Finals run that he’s fully capable of carrying the Knicks’ offense at times.
Anunoby was also a $7,000 player for much of last season, so he’s awfully discounted at $5,800 ahead of this matchup with the Celtics. While Boston is stout defensively, they’re also a three-point funnel. Celtics opponents attempted the fifth-most triples per game last season (38.6). If he can get his shots to fall tonight, OG has a clear path to smashing salary-based expectations.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero ($9,000) – While the Magic reportedly want Franz to serve as the primary distributor, it was Banchero who took charge on opening night. It was Wagner who led the team in usage, while Paolo paced Orlando with a hefty 40% assist rate against Atlanta. Banchero also poured in 35 points on 10-for-12 shooting in a whopping 41 minutes of action. On this slate, he looks like a solid alternative to Tatum at a $200 discount.
Jalen Johnson ($9,100) – The Hawks traded Young last season because they were comfortable building around Jalen Johnson instead. He’s blossomed into one of the game’s more underrated stat-stuffers. Johnson picked up right where he left off last season on opening night, contributing 20 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists. What’s most impressive is that he mustered all of that in just 27 minutes due to foul trouble.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Ivica Zubac ($6,900)
The Pacers were comfortable forgoing their upcoming lottery pick last season because they were sold on Ivica Zubac as their two-way anchor in the middle. He rewarded that gamble on opening night, piling up 16 points, 15 rebounds, and a pair of blocks in an efficient 33 minutes against New Orleans. For some reason, Zubac’s DK salary actually dropped by $300 coming into tonight’s matchup against Dallas.
The Mavericks are one of the league’s most defensively-challenged teams, particularly up front. Daniel Gafford is really the only NBA-caliber center currently on the roster. Dallas tied for the sixth-worst rebound rate a season ago, and they allowed the most points in the paint per game (56.2). Zu should find very little resistance in this matchup on either end of the floor.
Value
Moussa Diabate ($5,200)
The Hornets have spent draft capital on addressing the center position in back-to-back drafts by taking Ryan Kalkbrenner and Hannes Steinbach. As of now, though, it’s former Clippers castoff Moussa Diabate holding it down in the middle. Diabate broke out last season as one of the league’s most active rebounders, and he proved to be a useful DFS commodity despite playing a very low-usage role (11%).
Diabate logged 33 minutes on opening night, while Kalkbrenner handled 17 minutes as the backup. This is clearly Diabate’s job to lose. After totaling 17 points, eight rebounds, five steals, and three assists against Brooklyn, he doesn’t look like someone willing to relinquish it any time soon.
Fast Break
Jalen Duren ($7,100) – Duren flirted with forcing his way out of Detroit all summer before ultimately agreeing to a contract extension. Through one game, that looks like money well spent for the Pistons. Duren racked up 22 points and nine rebounds in Detroit’s thrilling comeback win over Boston, and he should be in line for a full complement of minutes in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game tonight in Miami.
Naz Reid ($6,600) – Reid is another new face in a new place, though he already looks right at home in Charlotte. Without Knueppel, White, or the departed LaMelo Ball, there’s plenty of usage available in this offense. Naz was happy to soak some of that up against Brooklyn, as he posted a 25% usage rate and came to within three assists of a triple-double in his team debut.
Pictured: Tyrese Haliburton
Photo Credit: Imagn
