The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Jordan Love ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
The Packers are back. They got off to a slow start this season, but they’ve rattled off three straight wins. Their offense has been particularly impressive in their past two, tallying 54 total points with nearly 750 total yards. They’re also eighth in EPA per play over that stretch, which is a massive improvement over the start of the year.
Love has unsurprisingly been a solid fantasy quarterback in those outings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, tallying at least 21.24 DraftKings points in each. He even added a rushing touchdown vs. the Cowboys, which is something that he very rarely does.
Love is in a great spot to keep the production rolling in Week 7. He’s taking on the Lions, who have been a goldmine for fantasy points so far this season. They’re 28th in EPA per pass defensively, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing QBs. It results in a massive +11.4 Opponent Plus/Minus for Love, which is easily the best at the position.
The game environment should also be outstanding. This game leads the slate with a 53.5-point total, and the Lions are just three-point home favorites. It suggests a high-scoring affair with plenty of upside on both sides, which tend to be the best for fantasy purposes.
Add it all up, and Love ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus. He also ranks second in median projection and third in ceiling, despite his modest price tag.
C.J. Stroud ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
The Texans have won two straight games, but that still puts them at just 2-4 for the year. They have a lot of work to do to get back in the hunt, but their upcoming schedule is favorable. That includes a matchup vs. the Giants in Week 7. The Giants are technically still in first place in the NFC East, but they are not a very good ball club. They’re merely 22nd in EPA per play defensively, and their offense has taken a clear step back in recent weeks.
Despite the Texans’ poor start, Stroud has played some of his best football. He clearly held the Texans back last year, but he’s averaged 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt with nine touchdown passes and one interception so far this season. He’s also averaged 285.7 passing yards per game, which represents a new career high. If Stroud can continue to perform at that level and the defense returns to form, the Texans could be pretty scary.
For fantasy purposes, Stroud has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games. That includes more than 20 fantasy points in four of his past five, including 26.98 vs. the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville’s defense has been very good so far this season, so if Stroud can succeed in that matchup, there’s no reason he can’t carve up the Giants.
The offense should also continue to flow through Stroud’s right arm. The team ranks eighth in Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) this season, and that number only figures to increase with David Montgomery on the shelf. Stroud ranks second in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 on FanDuel.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Matthew Stafford ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Is it panic time in Los Angeles? They’re currently sitting at just 2-4, so winning the division is almost already out of reach. The 49ers are a perfect 6-0, and they already have a head-to-head victory over Los Angeles. The Rams are also dealing with a host of injuries, with Davante Adams the latest victim. He suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and is expected to miss the next 6-10 weeks.
Losing Adams is a clear blow to the passing attack, but Stafford should be able to survive. He still has Puka Nacua, and he continues to sling the rock as much as anyone in football. He leads the league in pass attempts, completions, and yards, and the Rams are seventh in the league in DBOE. Stafford ultimately hasn’t been quite as efficient as he was last year, but he’s still performing at a pretty high level. He’s currently QB11 in terms of fantasy production, despite bringing nothing to the table as a runner.
Stafford and the Rams will look to get right this week vs. the Raiders. Las Vegas got off to a great start this season, but they’ve lost three straight games. Their defense has been dreadful during that stretch, ranking dead last in EPA per play and EPA per pass attempt. The Rams are implied for 26.5 points in this contest, so Stafford should be just fine without Adams.
Stafford is a viable option across the industry, but he’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel. His $7,700 price tag comes with an 85% Bargain Rating, and he ranks second on that site in projected Plus/Minus.
Brock Purdy ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Purdy has put himself in the MVP conversation with his play to start the year. He trails only Josh Allen in terms of betting odds, and he’s helped propel the 49ers to one of the top offenses in football. They’re second in the league in EPA per play, despite the team losing countless receivers to injury.
Purdy has been the constant, and he’s performed at an extremely high level. He leads the league in touchdown passes and QBR, and he brings just a smidge of rushing upside to the table. He’s averaged a career-best 26.0 yards per game on the ground, and he’s added one rushing touchdown.
The 49ers lost another receiver in Week 6, with Mike Evans set to miss some time. That said, it shouldn’t matter too much, at least for this week. The 49ers are still implied for 27.0 points, which is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
Lamar Jackson ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
The Ravens pulled the “rope-a-dope” on fantasy players and bettors last week. It sounded like Jackson would return following a one-game absence, but he missed practice all week and ultimately sat out once again vs. the Browns. Unsurprisingly, the offense struggled mightily in his absence, and they suffered a defeat to their division rivals. The reports this week say Jackson “could potentially practice,” so we’ll have to wait and see.
If Jackson does return, it’s hard not to love his prospects vs. the Bengals. The Ravens and Bengals have combined for some amazing fantasy contests in recent years. That wasn’t the case last year – Jackson was clearly banged up, which limited the Ravens offense – but he had at least 32.9 DraftKings points in both games vs. Cincinnati the year prior. This game ranks second on the slate with a 51.0-point total, so there’s plenty of potential for scoring this go around.
Jackson’s price tag has also dipped to just $6,700 on DraftKings, which is much cheaper than usual. He doesn’t have a huge sample size of games at a comparable salary, but he has unsurprisingly averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 (per the Trends tool). As long as he’s back in the lineup, he’s an appealing tournament option with upside.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Bo Nix ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
It hasn’t really mattered whether it’s been Davis Webb or Sean Payton calling the plays; Nix just hasn’t been good. He’s taken a clear step back compared to last season, averaging just 5.5 adjusted yards per attempt through his first six games. Some of the advanced metrics are even uglier. No QB has averaged fewer intended air yards per attempt, while he has the fourth-worst completion percentage above expectation. He currently ranks 22nd at the position in fantasy scoring, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all but one game.
So, why target Nix in Week 7? It’s all about the matchup. He’s taking on the Cardinals, who rank 28th in EPA per play defensively. They drop to No. 30 against the pass, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It’s a great spot for Nix to potentially get back on track.
Nix is also priced at a significant discount at just $5,000 on DraftKings. It results in a 93% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the best mark at the position.
That combination makes Nix one of the strongest tournament options of the week. He actually leads all QBs in SimLabs optimal lineup rate for DraftKings (11.9%), despite being projected for just 3.4% ownership. His cheap price tag allows you to grab a couple of studs at running back and receiver, and there are plenty of strong options to choose from at those positions.
Jalon Daniels ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
It sounds as though Daniels is going to get another start in Week 7. The team is reportedly “preparing” for Daniels to be at the helm vs. the Panthers, and he’s another strong DraftKings value if that’s the case. He’s the cheapest of all projected starting QBs on DraftKings.
It’s hard to argue against that pricing. He failed to return value in each of his first three starts, finishing with less than 14 DraftKings points in each of them.
That said, Daniels does fit the profile of what you’re looking for in a cheap fantasy quarterback. Specifically, he can provide plenty of potential with his legs. He’s averaged 39.0 rushing yards per game in his three starts, and he should arguably be using his legs more. He’s averaged 6.16 yards per attempt, so his legs have been a legit weapon.
Daniels also gets a strong matchup this week vs. the Panthers. They’re 12th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and they’ve given up the second-largest boost in terms of QB rushing. That’s a nice proposition for Daniels in particular.
Daniels is another QB who is projected for far less ownership than he should be. His 4.6% projected ownership is nearly half his 9.1% optimal lineup rate on DraftKings.
Bryce Young ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Young warrants some consideration for the Panthers. He has seemingly made the leap in his fourth professional season. He currently leads the league with 309.8 passing yards per game, to go along with 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It results in an average of 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt, which puts him on pace to shatter his previous career high (6.2).
The Buccaneers defense has been solid this season, but Young is simply too cheap for the production he’s shown to start the year. He has the fifth-highest optimal lineup rate at the position on FanDuel.
Pictured: Jordan Love
Photo Credit: Imagn
